Global Disaster Watch

Tuesday, February 14, 2012

2012-02-14T00:02:00.002-06:00

**All you need is love.
But a little chocolate now and then doesn't hurt.**
HAPPY VALENTINE'S DAY!

LARGEST QUAKES -
This morning -
5.5 NEAR EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
5.4 NEAR EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
5.1 SOUTHERN EAST PACIFIC RISE
5.4 AEGEAN SEA

Yesterday -
2/13/12 -
5.3 NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
5.8 COSTA RICA
5.0 SOUTH OF KERMADEC ISLANDS
5.3 TONGA REGION
5.0 MOZAMBIQUE

VOLCANOES -

Galunggung volcano (West Java, Indonesia) - The alert status was raised Monday due to an increase of its water temperature and a change in color. Discoloration of the crater lake had started to be noticed in September 2011, but the changes have increased recently. According to the local volcanologists monitoring the volcano, the whole lake is now of muddy khaki color. In addition to the color change which could be caused by an increase of lake fumarole activity, an steep sudden increase by 13°C of the lake water temperature was detected, based on measurements taken on and before 5 February when it was at normal 27°C, and on 8 Feb, when it was 40°C warm. Most fish in the lake have died and occasionally dead birds are found at the shore. No other signs of a possible volcanic awakening were detected at the moment. The ph level of the water is still at normal levels 7-8, and there is no sulfur smell. Also, no significant seismic activity has been detected. Nevertheless, PVMBG has now placed the volcano at alert level 2 ("watch", on a scale of 1-4) and recommends to stay away at least 500 m from the lake shore.
The last eruptions of Galunggnug was a small phreatic explosion in 1984, and the major destructive eruption in 1982-83, which produced violent explosions with ash columns reaching 20 km height, pyroclastic flows and large lahars. The eruption destroyed an older lava lake, killed many people and displaced up to 35,000.
The eruption is infamous for the aircraft accident on 24 June 1982: a British Airways Boeing 747 with 262 people on board flew through the ash plume and had to make an emergency descent after the ash caused all 4 engines to fail; fortunately, the plane could land safely.
The present-day crater lake (Danau kawah Galunggung) has a diameter of 1000 m and is 11 m deep and contains a volume of about 8 million m3 of water. In the middle of the lake, a small 250 x 165 m diameter scoria cone which was produced during the final stage of the 1982-83 eruption rises to 30 m elevation. A main hazard of the volcano are phreatic and phreatomagmatic eruptions capable of draining the lake and producing mud flows.

Russia - Shiveluch Volcano remains very active in early 2012, with a slowly growing lava dome accompanied by frequent ash emissions and rockfalls.

TROPICAL STORMS -
In the Indian Ocean -
-Tropical cyclone 10p (Jasmine) was located approximately 50 nm west of Tonga.
-Tropical cyclone 12s (Giovanna) was located approximately 95 nm east of Antananarivo, Madagascar.

Crops hardest hit by Cyclone Jasmine - The worst damage in Vanuatu from last week's gale force winds appears to be to crops, a team of aid workers say. Last week the team took aerial photographs of Tafea - the province most affected.

Tropical Cyclone Giovanna sets its sights on Madagascar - could prove catastrophic. As of 1500 GMT, Tropical Cyclone Giovanna was located approximately 290 miles northeast of La Reunion and slowly tracking to the west-southwest at about 6 mph. Residents of central and eastern portions of Madasgascar were preparing and evacuating the coastal areas as this storm was projected to make landfall on Monday, February 13 as a major cyclone with winds sustained of at least 100 mph.

Monday, February 13, 2012

2012-02-12T22:01:00.000-06:00

**There have been times when I think we do not desire heaven,
but more often I find myself wondering whether,
in our heart of hearts,
we have ever desired anything else.**
C.S. Lewis

LARGEST QUAKES -
This morning -
5.0 COMOROS REGION

Yesterday -
2/12/12 -
5.5 ASCENSION ISLAND REGION
5.1 NEAR COAST OF SOUTHERN PERU
5.2 OFF EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN

VOLCANOES -

Lava dome in Alaska's Cleveland volcano continues to grow - Cleveland volcano keeps grumbling away, with a lava dome continuing to grow, and the alert level remaining at "watch," according to the Alaska Volcano Observatory. A status update on Saturday said that the volcano continued to show activity.

TROPICAL STORMS -
In the Indian Ocean -
-Tropical cyclone 12s (Giovanna) was located approximately 400 nm east of Antananarivo, Madagascar.
-Tropical cyclone 10p (Jasmine) was located approximately 195 nm southwest of Tonga.

HEAVY SNOW / EXTREME COLD -

Kosovo - A young girl has been pulled alive from a house hours after it was hit by an avalanche which killed at least nine people in southern Kosovo. She was found buried under 10 metres (33 ft) of snow after officers heard her voice and a mobile phone ringing. Rescuers are still looking for one person after the avalanche hit a remote mountain village on the border with Albania and Macedonia on Saturday. Several homes were destroyed. Only two were said to be occupied at the time. Nato peacekeepers deployed in Kosovo had been called in to help rescue operations, but were unable to land a helicopter in the blizzard. Those who were found dead in the village of Restelica after Saturday's avalanche were two brothers and their families. "No bigger tragedy has ever struck this region." The cold snap which started in Europe in late January has left dozens dead in the Balkans.

Sunday, February 12, 2012

2012-02-12T04:54:00.002-06:00

LARGEST QUAKES -
This morning -
5.1 NEAR COAST OF SOUTHERN PERU
5.2 OFF EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN

Yesterday -
2/11/12 -
5.0 NEAR EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
5.1 EASTERN HONSHU, JAPAN
5.1 SOLOMON ISLANDS
5.6 MOLUCCA SEA
5.7 BIO-BIO, CHILE

2/10/12 -
5.7 NEAR N COAST OF PAPUA, INDONESIA
5.1 KERMADEC ISLANDS REGION
5.0 FOX ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN ISLANDS
6.0 FIJI REGION

The death toll from landslides triggered by the earthquake in the central Philippines has risen to 35 and scores of missing are feared dead as rains and aftershocks hamper rescue efforts, disaster officials said on Friday.

As Europe battles a deep freeze, RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES and heavy snow are making life even more miserable for more than 140,000 Turkish quake survivors still living in tents or temporary homes four months after the nation's devastating earthquake. The cold snap, which began in Europe in late January, has left some families in Turkey's quake relief centers trying to stay warm by using coal stoves or electric heaters, and watching their drinking water freeze overnight.

VOLCANOES -

Indonesia - The restless Mount Lokon volcano in northern Indonesia erupted again Friday, spewing clouds of ash over a mile high into the sky at around 20h20 local time. The eruption produced a loud thumping noise and a 2 km tall ash eruption column

Philippines - Quake causes cracks, landslide at Kanlaon Volcano. The Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology experts have been asked to assess the damage caused by the magnitude 6.9 earthquake on Kanlaon Volcano following large cracks discovered at its crater, and a landslide at Margaha Valley.

The US Geological Survey has opened the California Volcano Observatory at its headquarters in Menlo Park with the purpose of increasing awareness of and resiliency to volcano threats in California.

TROPICAL STORMS -
In the Indian Ocean -
-Tropical cyclone 12s (Giovanna) was located approximately 260 nm north-northeast of La Reunion.
-Tropical cyclone 10p (Jasmine) was located approximately 440 nm southwest of Tonga.

Tropical storm Twelve is forecast to strike Madagascar as a tropical cyclone at about 20:00 GMT on 13 February. Mauritius to close airport on Tropical Cyclone Giovanna warnings. The Indian Ocean island nation is under a cyclone warning Class 3.

Cyclone Jasmine's eye has opened wider on NASA satellite imagery, as it moves through the Southern Pacific Ocean. On Friday, February 10 Cyclone Jasmine was maintaining Category One hurricane status. Very intense tropical cyclone Jasmine struck Vanuatu at about 06:00 GMT on February 8th.

HEAVY SNOW / EXTREME COLD -

Regions across Europe sustained another deluge of extreme weather prompting a deadly avalanche in Kosovo, snarling air and train travel, and blanketing Rome with a rare dusting of snow for the second time in a week. Winter weather conditions wreaked havoc across much of Europe Friday, with travel delays, school and public office closures and deaths. Central and Eastern Europe got the worst of the recent weather. Death tolls rose into the hundreds as countries struggled to deal with bitter temperatures.

India - The extremely low temperatures in the city of Mumbai are the latest indicator of climatic fluctuations in Mumbai. While Mumbai had a minimum of 14.2 degrees Celsius on Wednesday, this dipped to 8.8 degrees on Thursday. The cold wave in Europe, which has killed many people there, may be leading to extreme winter conditions in India, say experts. The cold in India can be broadly at tributed to the exceptional cold in Europe. "The land masses in the middle and upper latitudes across the globe are being af fected because of the cold in Europe."
Some experts hold La Nina responsible. La Nina can cause western disturbances, and one of these recently caused snow and rain in north India. La Nina causes the sea surface temperature in parts of the Pacific Ocean to be lower than normal. An IMD report recently showed a likely link between La Nina and the exceptionally low temperatures in northern India, even as experts said the northern regions have been affected by western disturbances more frequently this year. Temperatures across India plummeted rapidly in the second week of January. Since then, the western Himalayas have witnessed heavy snow and the northern plains have remained chilly. Central India and parts of south India have had record-breaking cold spells. "The La Nina effect may have caused a situation for global temperatures to plummet."

STRANGE ANIMAL BEHAVIOR -

Hundreds of dead dolphins found off Peru - At least 264 dead bottlenose dolphins have washed ashore over the past three days on Peru's northern coast, officials said as they seek to discover what killed the marine animals.

Friday, February 10, 2012

2012-02-10T01:47:00.002-06:00

Extreme weather may cause food price surge - The bitter winter cold sweeping across Asia and Europe is not just miserable for commuters. The inclement weather is causing widespread disruption to transport services, power supplies - and a surge in sales of winter jackets. Meteorologists warn that the subzero temperatures are expected to continue into next week. Analysts say, it could also be the winter of discontent for the global economy.
Experts say, the most direct impact from the severe cold is on global food prices. Only a year and half ago, global food prices were pushed up 60 to 80 percent by a drought caused by the extreme heat in Russia, which saw a reduction in wheat output by 30 percent. The consequences were devastating for some African countries that rely on imported food. Experts from the China Meteorology Administration say as the freezing weather sweeps across Chinese border, many areas will see a drop in vegetable supplies. "The recent warm winter has made many people become less alert about extreme weather conditions. It has brought ahead crops’ growth period as well. If the severe freezing weather lasts for a longer period, many areas could face a supply shortage in vegetable. "
Besides food, other industries from real estate to civil aviation will take a hit too. The heavy snowfall in the United States last year caused severe damage to new house constructions. Meanwhile, cancellation of over 6 thousand flights caused heavy losses not only to the travel industry, but impacted tourism and logistics industry too. But experts say the upside is this will push up demand for clothes and energy consumption. "This extreme weather is good news for some industries such as winter jacket manufacturers. We can expect sales will go up. There would be high demand for energy too, which could cause an energy shortage as electricity companies and gas companies may not have prepared for the freezing cold." Experts also warn a potential surge on global oil prices, and that investors in commodity futures should pay attention to the impact on agricultural commodity prices.

LARGEST QUAKES -
This morning -
5.8 NEAR N COAST OF PAPUA, INDONESIA
6.0 FIJI REGION

Yesterday -
2/9/12 -
5.2 SERAM, INDONESIA
5.1 SERAM, INDONESIA
5.1 MACQUARIE ISLAND REGION
5.1 UTTARANCHAL, INDIA
5.1 NORTHERN XINJIANG, CHINA
5.3 MACQUARIE ISLAND REGION
5.0 NINIGO ISLANDS REGION, P.N.G.
5.4 SOUTHWEST INDIAN RIDGE
5.8 SOUTH SANDWICH ISLANDS REGION
5.4 SOLOMON ISLANDS
5.1 VANUATU

VOLCANOES -

Indonesia - Mount Lokon volcano on Indonesia's Sulawesi island erupted early today with a loud explosion and spewing ash two kilometres up in the sky. No casualties were reported. "Volcanic activity had been increasing since yesterday before it erupted this morning. The height of the ash-smoke plume is estimated to be about 2000 metres." Residents to the east of the crater within a 3.5km radius have been advised to vacate their homes. Of Indonesia's 500 volcanoes, 128 are active and 65 are listed as dangerous.
Mount Lokon erupted several times last year, most recently in December but there were no casualties.

TSUNAMI / FREAK WAVES / ABNORMAL TIDES -

Indonesian Tin Exports Drop 64% as Bad Weather Hurts Mining - “Extreme weather has really disrupted both offshore and on-land tin mining in Bangka. Waves could reach as high as 5 meters, making it impossible for dredgers to operate, and on land the pits were flooded due to heavy rain.” The weather conditions may persist until next month or April. The Bangka Belitung islands are Indonesia’s main producing regions.

TROPICAL STORMS -
In the Indian Ocean -
-Tropical cyclone 12s (Giovanna) was located approximately 610 nm northeast of La Reunion.
-Tropical cyclone 10p (Jasmine) was located approximately 330 nm east-southeast of Noumea, New Caledonia.

Tropical Storm 12S - a possible threat to Madagascar - The twelfth tropical depression formed in the Southern Indian Ocean today
and quickly became a tropical storm, dubbed Tropical Storm 12S (Giovanna).

Potential cyclone enters Philippine territory - A potential cyclone — a low-pressure area (LPA) — entered Philippine territory Thursday afternoon.

SEVERE RAIN STORMS, FLOODING, LANDSLIDES -

Australia - People trapped as flash floods hit Sydney. Up to 20 people have been rescued and many more fled their homes as a massive storm swept across western Sydney and the Illawarra, resulting in treacherous flash flooding. It has left another 3000 people now cut off by floodwaters across NSW, pushing the total over the past week towards 9000. "We've had an increase in the number of homes and farms that have been isolated." Rain hammered low-lying pockets of Sydney. About 150 racing greyhounds were rescued from a stud farm at Londonderry, near Penrith, along with some goats from another property.
Another 40 greyhounds may need rescuing from a semi-rural area of western Sydney today. Londonderry was hammered by 104mm of rain in a few hours last night. Eight homes have been inundated with floodwaters and 19 people needed rescuing. Another 38 self-evacuated. Volunteers spent the night sandbagging as well as responding to emergency calls reporting leaking roofs and fallen trees. "The water rose quite quickly." The rain also hit the Illawarra region, on the state's south coast, where there were about 20 rescues. The SES had been closely watching the south coast and southern highlands, although weather conditions appeared to have eased. "The worst is possibly over down there."
Meanwhile, there are now 8700 people isolated across NSW - the figure was 6000 yesterday. These include the northwest towns of Lightning Ridge and Goodooga as well as Mungindi, Collarenebri and Wee Waa. "It's been two weeks now that Wee Waa has been cut off." A severe weather warning is still in place for the metropolitan, south coast, Illawarra and Snowy Mountains. "Showers, rain and thunderstorms which may lead to flash flooding. A low pressure system is expected to develop near the south coast on Saturday."

HEAVY SNOW / EXTREME COLD -

BRITAIN - Ice to bring danger to roads in fresh wave of severe weather. Ice warnings have been issued for northern parts of Britain as forecasters warned of more extreme weather and urged motorists to take extra car on slippery roads. A potentially treacherous mixture of snow, sleet and rain was set to sweep across much of the north on Thursday night, causing fresh chaos for the country’s transport networks. Forecasters warned travelling conditions would remain "difficult" across much of Britain with ice potentially creating havoc for drivers as many parts still recover from last weekend's snowfalls. Northern areas particulary at risk included Cumbria, Northumberland, the Pennines and into Scotland. Further snow was expected on Thursday, with up to four inches falling across much of southern Britain. Forecasters warned temperatures in southern areas will struggle to remain above freezing throughout the week and into the weekend, with the mercury in some areas plunging overnight to as low as -13C. The north, meanwhile, will remain significantly warmer with temperatures as high as 8C.

Hungary Extreme Winter Claims Lives as Cold Weather Set to Stay - Extreme cold weather claimed more than five lives in Hungary over the weekend as some schools were closed and settlements temporarily sealed off. Southeastern regions of the country were blanketed with as much as 60 centimeters (24 inches) of snow.

EXTREME HEAT & DROUGHT / WILDFIRES / CLIMATE CHANGE -

Tasmanians are enduring a summer of extreme weather conditions, with the state experiencing RECORD-BREAKING HOT NIGHTS, chilly cold spells, thunderstorms and torrential rain last month. The temperature in Hobart exceeded 28C for eight days last month, which has only happened twice before: in January 1961 and February 1895. Of those eight days, the temperature exceeded 29C on seven which HAS NEVER HAPPENED BEFORE in January. On 12 mornings the minimum temperature didn't fall below 15C, also setting a new January record for the city. January 3 was particularly hot, with Hobart Airport recording its warmest January night on record with 21.2C. The highest temperature that day was 37.2C at Scamander, more than 15C above its January average. Wynyard Airport recorded its warmest January night on record on the morning of the 30th with 19.9C, while Scamander, Geeveston and Tarraleah all enjoyed their highest January mean daily minimum temperature on record.
But Tasmania also experienced unseasonal cold spells, especially in the second week of January when temperatures were 2 to 9C below average and up to 12C below average in the west. On the 10th, Burnie (16.6C) and Launceston (18.4C) recorded their coldest January day in seven years. Hobart had its coldest January morning in eight years (6.3C) the following morning. Temperatures dropped again at the end of the month, with Hobart shivering through its coldest January day in seven years with 15.4C on the 31st. Most of the state was relatively dry for most of the month, until a low pressure system on January 30 delivered up to 60mm of rain to the west and south-east. Maatsuyker Island Lighthouse recorded 64.4mm of rain, its wettest January day on record.

Thursday, February 9, 2012

2012-02-09T04:40:00.003-06:00

**Absence makes the heart grow fonder.**

LARGEST QUAKES -
This morning -
5.2 SERAM, INDONESIA
5.0 SERAM, INDONESIA
5.8 SOUTH SANDWICH ISLANDS REGION
5.2 SOLOMON ISLANDS
5.1 VANUATU

Yesterday -
2/8/12 -
5.0 MINAHASA, SULAWESI, INDONESIA
5.4 NEAR WEST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
5.0 NEAR ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN ISLANDS
5.0 OFFSHORE CHIAPAS, MEXICO
5.5 NEAR COAST OF ECUADOR
5.3 KERMADEC ISLANDS, NEW ZEALAND
5.3 NEGROS- CEBU REG, PHILIPPINES

2/7/12 -
5.1 HOKKAIDO, JAPAN REGION
5.1 SVALBARD REGION
5.0 NEGROS- CEBU REG, PHILIPPINES
5.3 NEGROS- CEBU REG, PHILIPPINES

2/6/12 -
5.2 NEGROS- CEBU REG, PHILIPPINES
5.9 NEGROS- CEBU REG, PHILIPPINES
6.1 NEGROS- CEBU REG, PHILIPPINES
5.7 NEGROS- CEBU REG, PHILIPPINES
6.7 NEGROS- CEBU REG, PHILIPPINES

2/5/12 -
5.1 FIJI REGION
5.1 MICHOACAN, MEXICO
5.1 MINDANAO, PHILIPPINES
5.2 KYRGYZSTAN
5.0 SOUTHERN IRAN
6.1 VANUATU
5.0 VANUATU
6.1 VANUATU
5.3 VANUATU

Philippines - Rescuers dug through debris and mud in the central Philippines Tuesday in search of nearly 100 missing people a day after a 6.9-magnitude earthquake triggered landslides, collapsed houses and killed at least 48 people. Residents in Cebu City ran scared as reports of a tsunami swept the city after the 6.9-magnitude earthquake shook the Central Visayas metropolis on Monday.
Negros quake survivors beg rescuers to keep on searching. Two days after the quake flattened homes, destroyed bridges and crumbled mountainsides, rescue workers battled without heavy equipment to dig through rubble in the search for the missing.
'Unmapped' fault caused Visayas earthquake - The earthquake was caused by the sudden shifting of two tectonic plates in the Visayas area. The shift was from a "blind fault" some 20kms below the
earth between Negros and Cebu.
The governor appealed to the Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology to closely monitor Mt. Kanlaon, to allay fears that the quake, which was followed by several aftershocks, may trigger the eruption of the volcano.

Oregon Says Earthquake More Significant Risk Than Volcano At Mt. Hood - State geology officials say that an earthquake on Mt. Hood provides a more significant risk to the region than a volcanic eruption. Geologists say they used state-of-the-art LIDAR data to map what's happening underground on Mt. Hood.

VOLCANOES -

Italy - Another eruption of Etna, Fontanarossa air space closed. Just over one month after the last event, Etna is erupting again. It is causing a great sight. The new Southeastermn crater is erupting again and the flow of lava is visible from Catania and from towns in the hinterland.

Cameroon volcano - possible new eruption reported Friday. Mount Cameroon sends ashes, flames into air in brief volcanic explosion. Mt Cameroon volcano in Cameroon seems to have started a new eruption. According to local news, mild tremors and explosions were noted at the volcano during the past week, intensifying last Friday. A group of touristsis reported to have fled the area.

Continued Volcanic Rumblings from Pagan in the Mariana Islands - Although most of the activity from North Pagan is fairly minor, in 1981 an eruption produced explosions and lava flows. This means that keeping an eye on the current activity on Pagan is well worth the time.

Semeru volcano (East Java, Indonesia) - alert level raised to 3.

Tungurahua volcano (Ecuador) - new eruption on 4 February. The eruption lasted about 5 minutes and produced a plume rising to about 7-8 km altitude and drifting NE and later SE. Ash fall occurred in Baños, Juive, Runtún, Pillate, San Juan and Cotaló. More ash eruptions occurred over the following day.

Earthquakes Continue in Southwest Iceland - Such tremors are very common off Reykjanes and some of them may lead to volcanic eruptions. However, there are no indications that an eruption will follow the most recent series of earthquakes.
Why Iceland Volcano's 2010 Eruption Caused So Much Trouble - Jagged flecks of ash spewed into the air may have boosted the effects of the 2010 eruption of Iceland's Eyjafjallajökull volcano, which paralyzed flights across Europe.

TROPICAL STORMS -
In the Indian Ocean -
Tropical cyclone 10p (Jasmine) was located approximately 245 north-east of Noumea, New Caledonia.
[Not sure why Cyclone Cyril was not reported.]

A storm warning for Tonga has been lifted with Cyclone Cyril moving away from the country. Tropical Cyclone Cyril formed within 24 hours of Jasmine.

Powerful Tropical Cyclone Jasmine was spinning menacingly near New Caledonia.

UNUSUAL February tropical system douses south Florida, Key West - A disturbance with some tropical characteristics formed in the northern Caribbean over the weekend and is bringing heavy rains and gusty winds to south Florida and the Florida Keys. Key West had its WETTEST FEBRUARY DAY ON RECORD Sunday, receiving 4.34”. That is more than three times its monthly average. In Miami Lakes 0.95” of rain fell in just 90 minutes Monday morning (between 7-8:30 a.m.)
On Sunday, the National Hurricane Center gave the disturbance a 30 percent chance of becoming a sub-tropical depression or sub-tropical storm. However, as of Monday morning, the storm shows “no signs of an organized surface circulation” and they give the system close to no chance of becoming a named storm.
The system was expected move away from the region Tuesday, but produce some heavy showers over the northern and central Bahamas. It’s VERY RARE for tropical disturbances to form during the month of February, but not unprecedented. On February 2, 1952, a tropical storm made landfall in southwest Florida. Known as the Groundhog Day tropical storm, it is the only recorded tropical or subtropical storm to strike the U.S. that month.

Cyclone floods hit Malawi - Thousands of villagers have been forced to flee their homes after cyclone rains lashed a remote region of Malawi. Aid is being flown into Nsanje District, on the border with Mozambique after roads were cut-off during the deluge.

SEVERE RAIN STORMS, FLOODING, LANDSLIDES -

The United Kingdom may be in the middle of a big freeze but the biggest long-term weather threat facing millions of homeowners is flooding. As more extreme weather is on the horizon, 5.2 million homes face a serious flood risk.

HEAVY SNOW / EXTREME COLD -

Greece and Bulgaria battle flooding as Europe struggles with extreme weather - Europeans across the continent have been battling more than a week of extreme weather, with thousands still trapped by snow in remote, mountain villages in the Balkans; hundreds - most of them homeless - dead after temperatures hit as low as minus 33.

Sunday, February 5, 2012

2012-02-05T02:04:00.001-06:00

No updates on Monday and Tuesday this week.

**Time, for me, passes too swiftly.
Too much so for me to wish it forward.**
Henry David Thoreau

LARGEST QUAKES -
This morning -
5.3 KEPULAUAN KAI, INDONESIA
5.0 SOUTHERN IRAN
5.0 VANUATU
5.7 VANUATU

Yesterday -
2/4/12 -
5.4 OWEN FRACTURE ZONE REGION
5.6 VANCOUVER ISLAND, CANADA REGION
5.4 SAMAR, PHILIPPINES
5.1 CENTRAL MID-ATLANTIC RIDGE
5.0 VANUATU
5.7 SAMAR, PHILIPPINES
5.8 TONGA
5.5 CENTRAL MONGOLIA
5.1 TAIWAN REGION

2/3/12 -
5.0 NEW BRITAIN REGION, P.N.G.
5.0 VANUATU
5.6 VANUATU
5.7 VANUATU
6.0 VANUATU

Japan - At least 1.3 million people in the Tokyo metropolitan area will likely have no place to take temporary refuge if the area is directly hit by a strong earthquake, according to projections by local governments concerned. There will only be space to accommodate 270,000 people, or more than 10 percent of the Tokyo residents whose houses are expected to be damaged in a major quake that has its epicenter in central Tokyo, the projections show. Combined with those who will be unable to return home due to the suspension of public transportation, local governments concerned will have to secure additional shelters for more than 1.3 million people.
As public facilities have no capacity to accommodate more evacuees, ward governments plan to call on businesses, commercial complexes and hotels to cooperate in accepting people in the event of a major disaster. According to data compiled by a University of Tokyo research team, there is a 70 percent probability the Tokyo metropolitan area will be hit directly by a magnitude-7 level earthquake within four years. About 4.48 million people are expected to be unable to return home because public transportation services will be suspended.
Before the Great East Japan Earthquake, the Tokyo metropolitan and ward governments had not anticipated that people who could not return home would take temporary refuge at their shelters in the event of a major disaster. On March 11, however, people with no means of transportation flocked to temporary shelters designated by ward offices and other parties for local residents. In an effort to avoid such a situation in the future, the Tokyo metropolitan government and ward governments have asked the private sector in the Tokyo area to have their employees stay at their companies for about three days if a major quake strikes. In addition to those who work in Tokyo, however, many people visit the Tokyo area for sightseeing and shopping. This made local governments aware of the need to secure places where such visitors can take temporary refuge in a major disaster. A central government survey showed that 32 percent of the people who were in the Tokyo metropolitan area on March 11 and could not return home were in the area for shopping and other personal reasons.

TROPICAL STORMS -
In the Indian Ocean -
Tropical cyclone 10p (Jasmine) was located approximately 625 nm north of Brisbane, Australia. Intensifying, the forecasted track carries the storm between New Caledonia and Vanuatu, which will help minimize damage.

Fiji - Strong wind warning remains in force. The latest weather report from the Nadi weather office said the earlier second tropical depression that was situated to the west of Vanuatu has now turned into a tropical cyclone. Tropical Cyclone Jasmine is slowly moving
east.

US set to be hit hardest by tropical cyclones - Tropical cyclones will cause $109 billion in damages by the end of the century, according to Yale and MIT researchers, because of economic growth as well as climate change.

In 1952, Miami was hit by a tropical Storm on Groundhog Day - In February 1952 an unnamed tropical storm moved northeast across South Florida becoming the only know tropical storm or hurricane to ever make landfall in the United States during the month of February. This storm became known as the Groundhog Day storm.

SEVERE RAIN STORMS, FLOODING, LANDSLIDES -

Extreme Weather May Result in Food Shortage in Indonesia following extreme climate and weather changes early this year. A number of rice-producing areas in West Java, Central Java and Sumatra have been hit by floods, causing crop failure.

HEAVY SNOW / EXTREME COLD -

Europe cold snap death toll has risen to more than 260 with hundreds having to be rescued after a ferry caught in a snow storm hit a breakwater off Italy.
Extreme cold weather in Ukraine causes 101 deaths - Of the Ukrainians who have died since the cold weather hit Jan. 27, 64 were found frozen on the streets, 11 died in hospitals and 26 in their homes. It was so cold there that some 1500 swans, sea gulls and ducks froze to the ice in a small harbor near Ukraine's Black Sea port of Odessa, forcing emergency workers to use ships to break up the surface and free the birds. The weeklong cold snap — Eastern Europe's WORST IN DECADES — is causing power outages, frozen water pipes and the widespread closure of schools, nurseries, airports and bus routes.

Britain braced for 'severe weather' as 15cm of snow is forecast - The UK was on red alert as experts urged people to make plans to deal with a bout of 'severe weather'. According to the Met Office, up to 15cm of snow is predicted to fall and temperatures will plummet to an icy -11 C.

EXTREME HEAT & DROUGHT / WILDFIRES / CLIMATE CHANGE -

Drought, warmer weather persist in much of US - Weird weather kept vexing large swathes of the United States over the last week, with unseasonably warm and dry conditions melting northern snows and spreading drought through the southwest, even as heavy rains soaked parched pastures in Texas and Oklahoma. Unseasonably warm temperatures were noted in Kansas and across many areas of the central Plains, with Kansas recording temperatures well above 60 degrees Fahrenheit this week.
Above-normal temperatures and below-normal precipitation over the past 60-90 days has made drought more intense in some areas of southeastern New Mexico and western Texas. Locally heavy rains across part of northern Texas and southeastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas helped ease drought conditions slightly.
But in the week through January 31, Texas statewide saw exceptional drought - the highest level - climb to 27.36 percent of the state from 25.27 percent. Texas is trying to emerge from a year that saw records shattered for both high heat and lack of moisture. The one-year period between November 1, 2010, and October 31, 2011, was the driest in the state's history, and three-month period of June to August in Texas was the hottest ever reported by any state in U.S. history.

Friday, February 3, 2012

2012-02-03T00:32:00.001-06:00

**A man is rich in proportion to the number of things
which he can afford to let alone.**
Henry David Thoreau

LARGEST QUAKES -
This morning -
5.6 VANUATU
5.4 VANUATU
6.0 VANUATU

Yesterday -
2/2/12 -
5.0 VANUATU
5.2 VANUATU
5.5 VANUATU
5.1 VANUATU
5.2 VANUATU
5.0 VANUATU
5.3 VANUATU
7.1 VANUATU
5.6 NEW BRITAIN REGION, P.N.G.
5.0 NEW IRELAND REGION, P.N.G.
5.6 NEW BRITAIN REGION, P.N.G.
5.0 WEST OF MACQUARIE ISLAND

Canada - A small earthquake rippled through Saskatchewan and western Manitoba just before 2:30 am on Wednesday, with the temblor reportedly being felt in some parts of the province. "It's significant, mostly because it's in an UNUSUAL place."

VOLCANOES -

Second Icelandic volcano is NOT erupting - Geologists and volcanologists around the world got a brief jolt at 1:20 EDT Thursday when news sites began reporting that Hekla, Iceland's most active volcano, had started erupting. However the rumor was quickly quashed.

TROPICAL STORMS -
In the Indian Ocean -
Tropical cyclone 09s (Iggy) was located approximately 170 nm northwest of Perth, Australia.

Cyclone Iggy loses intensity as it nears Australian coast - Cyclone Iggy is moving towards the Mid West coast but authorities expect it to have little impact. The Weather Bureau now believes the system will weaken below tropical cyclone intensity before it reaches the coast.

Dry Spell Caused by Tropical Cyclone Funso Devastates Zimbabwe Crops - Drought in Matabeleland South, Masvingo, Manicaland and parts of Midlands is due to dry continental air being
pushed by cyclone Funso into Zimbabwe. Tropical cyclone Funso, which has been dumping heavy rains on the coastal regions of Mozambique and Swaziland, has ironically brought misery to the southwest of Zimbabwe where villagers say their crops have wilted due to a lack of rain. The dry conditions are likely to be causing havoc in these regions where some fields have been turned into dust bowls. Villagers said they are now appealing for food aid following the ruin of their crops. Cyclones can devastate crops in various ways."They can either bring heavy rains or dry weather conditions leading to the destruction of crops." Crops are almost a write-off at this point. "The situation is hopeless in all parts of Matobo."

SEVERE RAIN STORMS, FLOODING, LANDSLIDES -

Queensland, Australia, floods officially declared disaster - RECORD-BREAKING FLOODS have sparked a disaster declaration in Queensland's southwest, with the premier warning the region has entered dangerous new territory, as floodwaters continue to rise across the region.
Flood towns cut off by 'inland sea' - The New South Wales Premier has compared the flood-ravaged streets of Moree to the canals of Venice.

HEAVY SNOW / EXTREME COLD -

Death toll rises in Europe cold snap - The cold snap has claimed 164 lives, as countries from Ukraine to Italy struggle with temperatures that have plunged to RECORD LOWS.
Even London is braced for snow as Britain shivers - Forecasters warned that extreme cold will grip the country over the next few day with the possibility of snow even in London and the south. The Met Office has upgraded its cold weather alert to level three, which means 'severe'.
Europe freeze: Serbia snow strands thousands - Heavy snow has left at least 11,000 villagers cut off in remote areas of Serbia amid the European cold snap. At least six people have died in Serbia, with emergency services expressing concern for the health of the sick and the elderly in particular. Temperatures are below -30C (-22F) in parts of Europe and 63 people have died in Ukraine and 29 in Poland. In Italy, weather experts say it is THE COLDEST WEEK FOR 27 YEARS. Emergency services in Serbia have described the situation, close to the country's south-western borders with Kosovo and Montenegro, as very serious. In places, the snow has reached a depth of 2m (6ft 6in). Fourteen municipalities are affected. Helicopters have helped move several people to safety, and food and medicines have been airlifted to isolated areas.
Snow began falling in Serbia on 7 January and has hardly stopped since. Serbian media say further snow is expected in the coming days.Ukraine has seen the highest number of fatalities, many of them homeless. Over a 24-hour period, as many as 20 people died. Food shortages have been reported in the capital, Kiev, because lorries have been unable to transport supplies. Heavy snow has also caused widespread disruption in northern and central Italy. More than 600 passengers were trapped on an unheated train in the Apennine mountains for seven hours on Wednesday night, when the brakes and electrical cables froze.
The coldest temperatures have been recorded in Russia and Kazakhstan. Snow is piled high in parts of the country. In the Urals and Siberia, the temperature fell to -40C (-40F) while in the capital of Kazakhstan, Astana, the wind-chill factor meant the real temperature was down to -52C, even though the air temperature was -35C. In southern Russia, cars and lorries became stuck in snow drifts between Novorossiisk and Krasnodar.
Heavy snow has also hit Turkey, with 50cm falling in Istanbul on Wednesday. An avalanche in the south-east of the country killed a woman in her home. Another avalanche blocked a main road connecting the provinces of Bitlis and Diyarbakir. Rescuers in Germany were unable to save an elderly woman after she had gone swimming in the frozen waters of a gravel pit in Lower Saxony. Reports said she had often swum in the lake.

The streets of Seoul, South Korea are covered in SOME OF THE HEAVIEST SNOW ON RECORD. The snow caused traffic jams all over the city which deployed more than 200 police officers to control traffic. Streets will turn to ice as temperatures drop below freezing.

EXTREME HEAT & DROUGHT / WILDFIRES / CLIMATE CHANGE -

The Year That Winter Forgot: Is It Climate Change? - 2012 is shaping up to be the year that winter forgot in the U.S. December and the first week of January have seen atypically mild temperatures throughout much of the country — especially in the usually harsh states of the far north and parts of the plains. Fargo, N.D. saw temperatures of 55°F on Jan. 5, breaking a more than century-old record for the warmest day in January. High temperatures in Nebraska at the end of last week were more than 30°F above normal, and in December at least half the U.S. had temperatures at least 5°F above normal.
Nor is the unseasonable warmth confined to the U.S.; Europe had mild temperatures as well [until this week]. When cold goes missing, snow does too and it's been an unusually green (or brown) winter. At the end of 2011, less than 20% of the continental U.S. was covered with snow, compared with more than 50% at the end of 2010. Ski resorts from California to Vermont are panicked about the possibility of a dry, warm winter leaving slopes bare and skiers looking into beach vacations. The unseasonable weather is doing weird things to nature too. In Washington, at the end of December, early spring flowers are responding to the warmth and blooming months early in the National Arboretum. New England lost most of its fall foliage, as heavier than usual rain and unusually warm nights kept trees green until the leaves suddenly fell. "It's a weird kind of fall blending right into spring."
The winter of 2012 may see precious little snow, but the winters of 2011 and '10 saw unusually heavy snowfall — record-breaking in some parts of the U.S. Britain experienced some of the coldest temperatures in its history last winter — and just last fall, parts of the U.S. were hit by the celebrated October Snowmageddon, leading people to predict a ferocious winter was coming. The fact that things have, so far, been so mild is due in part to some extenuating circumstances. The jet-stream pattern in December was the most extreme on record, which kept cold Arctic air from pushing into the U.S. Those kinds of factors can — and do — change fast. Truly cold temperatures are becoming less and less common in the U.S. To take one example, since 1996, there have been 48 high-temperatures records set in New York City's Central Park — and one just one record low. Since 1980, nearly every year in the U.S. has seen annual average temperatures higher than the long-term average. Confusion and uncertainty still exists over the exact impact of climate change on extreme-weather events like hurricanes or tornadoes, but there's one thing we can be pretty sure of: it will be less cold.
To many people that's probably not a bad thing. Extreme cold isn't just uncomfortable and inconvenient — it's also dangerous, particularly for older or poorer people who can't protect themselves from the elements as well as others. But warmer winters can change nature in dangerous ways as well. Western bark beetles — which have ravaged the pine trees of the west — are thriving because they're no longer being knocked out by very cold winters. Dry warm weather can worsen the risk of forest fires, and short winters can end up intensifying the spring-allergy season. A decline in mountain snowpack in the west can mean less water for dry states that are accustomed to meltwater runoff in the spring. Climate change disrupts the rhythm of the seasons, that regular passage of time and temperature we assumed was fixed. It turns out we may be wrong, and winter as we know it could one day be a season of the past.

SPACE WEATHER -

TEXAS FIREBALL - 2/1/12 - Wednesday night, a spectacular fireball appeared in the skies of eastern Texas and Oklahoma. As is often the case for unexpected night-sky phenomena, few pictures are available. The best so far comes from a police dash-board camera in the small town of Little River-Academy. : "At approximately 756pm CST, over Abilene, Texas, I saw an object falling from the sky much brighter and long-lasting than anything I've seen. [The fireball] lasted close to 8 secs before completely burning out. At first, it was bright white, and then started slowing down and getting brighter. Then it exploded like a firecracker artillery shell into several pieces, flickered a few more times and then slowly burned out... awesome!!!" Another observer in Coppell, Texas, reported a "double boom heard at 8:00:30 CST. [The object appeared to be] 1/2 the size of the waxing moon, and broke into two major chunks with many smaller pieces. It had a 'white plasma' (sun-colored) look with a long golden tail."
This was probably a natural object - a small asteroid about the size of a car or bus - not a decaying satellite or other manmade space debris. The fireball, which disintegrated in the general vicinity of Dallas-Fort Worth, was bright enough to be seen on NASA cameras located in New Mexico more than 500 miles away. It was about as bright as the full Moon (astronomical magnitude -13). (video)

Thursday, February 2, 2012

2012-02-01T23:39:00.001-06:00

**Men have become the tools of their tools.**
Henry David Thoreau

LARGEST QUAKES -
This morning -
5.0 NEAR COAST OF SOUTHERN PERU
5.0 WEST OF MACQUARIE ISLAND

Yesterday -
2/1/12 -
5.4 SOUTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA
5.0 EASTER ISLAND REGION
5.0 MAUG ISLANDS REG, N. MARIANA IS.
5.2 SAMAR, PHILIPPINES

VOLCANOES -

Alaska - Officials are monitoring a remote Alaska volcano that could launch an ash cloud, potentially threatening intercontinental flights. "Eruptive activity" of Cleveland Volcano was detected in satellite data. The volcano, also known as Mount Cleveland, is on the Aleutian Islands, southwest of mainland Alaska. "A new lava dome has been observed in the summit crater," the observatory said Tuesday. "There have been no observations of ash emissions or explosive activity during this current lava eruption." But the volcanic activity could heighten and affect air travel.
90% of air freight from Asia to Europe and North America flies over Alaska air space, and hundreds of flights -- including more than 20,000 passengers -- fly through Anchorage's air space daily. "If there is an explosion and (ash) reaches high altitudes, it will causes flights to be rerouted and ultimately canceled." The volcano's most recent significant eruption took place in 2001. It produced three explosions that led to ash clouds as high as 7.5 miles (12 kilometers) above sea level. "The 2001 eruption also produced a rubbly lava flow and hot avalanche that reached the sea."

TROPICAL STORMS -
In the Indian Ocean -
Tropical cyclone 09s (Iggy) was located approximately 290 nm west-northwest of Perth, Australia.

Tropical Storm Damages May Quadruple by 2100 - The combined impact of climate change and expanding human population means that tropical cyclones will cause more than four times the damage in 2100 than they do today, increasing from $26 billion to $109 billion, new research published in Nature says.

Fiji braces for new storm as death toll rises - A second tropical depression is approaching Fiji and could form into a tropical cyclone within the next 12 to 24 hours. This comes as the death toll in the nation's floods rises to seven.

SEVERE RAIN STORMS, FLOODING, LANDSLIDES -

Australia - Thousands of people are being evacuated from northern NSW, with helicopters descending on the region to airlift hundreds to safety. About 1600 residents in Moree and 80 people in nearby Biniguy have been ordered to leave their homes immediately as the Mehi and Gwydir rivers continue to rise to LEVELS NOT SEEN SINCE THE 1970s. Meanwhile a major operation is underway at Pallamallawa, with helicopters airlifting 600 trapped residents to safety. The SES has received 820 requests for assistance in recent days, with nine flood rescues carried out overnight. Multiple flood rescues of people trapped in their homes and cars were being carried out on Thursday.
Meanwhile, up to 260 residents at Croki and Manning Point have been warned to prepare to evacuate as the Manning River continues to rise. That evacuation order was likely to be put out later on today. The region has been hammered with 250mm of rain overnight, and the town of Wee Waa is completely isolated. About 2500 residents there will be monitored through regular food and supply drops. Bellingen, which was heavily flooded last week, is once again cut in two after the Bellinger River spilled over its banks. Thirteen flood warnings remain in place for river systems across NSW, with rain expected to spread to the Hunter region, the Illawarra and metropolitan Sydney later today. "This is a campaign of flood events that are likely to stay around for some time."

HEAVY SNOW / EXTREME COLD -

Heavy snow has caused disruption across Europe, carpeting much of Italy to the south and Turkey to the east. The freeze that has swept south through the continent has caused at least 80 deaths, mainly in Ukraine and Poland. Temperatures were so low that some areas in Romania along the shores of the Black Sea froze. In central Italy, heavy goods lorries were barred from motorways and several top-flight football matches have fallen victim to the wintry conditions.
Ukrainian officials reported that the number of deaths attributed to the freeze had risen to 43, with 13 people falling victim to hypothermia in the past 24 hours. School closures were reported in northern Greece, where temperatures of -16C (3F) were recorded. Villages were cut off in Bosnia where temperatures fell to -10C Several towns and cities in Bulgaria saw record lows, with -29C reported in Kneja in the north for the second day running. For much of the country an "orange" alert was in place, warning of dangerously low temperatures. In Bosnia and Serbia helicopters were used to airlift supplies to villages cut off by drifting snow.
Seven more deaths were reported in Poland, bringing to more than 20 the number who have fallen victim to the cold snap. German media reported that ice and sub-zero temperatures had led to the deaths of two women: a pedestrian froze after falling into a drainage ditch and a driver was killed when she lost control of her car on an icy road. Snowfalls were recorded as far south as southern Italy and Corsica, where at least 20cm of snow covered the centre of the Mediterranean island. Italian rail services were reduced because of the wintry conditions. The cold snap, according to forecasters, is due to an area of high pressure that has extended across Europe from Siberia and is expected to reach its peak at the weekend. They expected the bitter weather to continue for several more days across most of Europe, with cold winds and snow also spreading further south to affect the Balearic Islands and parts of northwest Africa by the weekend.

Wednesday, February 1, 2012

2012-02-01T06:21:00.001-06:00

**I have hung onto every bit of rubbish there is in life
and I've thrown all the good bits away.
Now can you tell me why I do that?**
Judy Garland

LARGEST QUAKES -
This morning -
5.4 SOUTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA
5.2 SAMAR, PHILIPPINES

Yesterday -
1/31/12 -
5.1 VANUATU
5.0 NEW BRITAIN REGION, P.N.G.
5.2 FIJI REGION

TROPICAL STORMS -
In the Indian Ocean -
Tropical cyclone 09s (Iggy), located approximately 420 nm west-southwest of Learmonth, Australia.

SEVERE RAIN STORMS, FLOODING, LANDSLIDES -

AUSTRALIA - Sydney has recorded its SOGGIEST JANUARY IN 11 YEARS and the COLDEST ONE IN 12 YEARS. .

HEAVY SNOW / EXTREME COLD -

Deadly cold snap freezes much of Europe - A deadly cold snap is spreading across eastern Europe from Russia on its way westwards leaving a trail of disruption and a rising death toll. Dozens have been killed by the freezing weather as temperatures have plummeted. In Turkey 20cm of snow fell – THE MOST SEEN IN 50 YEARS. Police in Poland say at least ten people froze to death as the weather worsened over night after what had been until now, a mild winter. There are warnings the country can expect 30 degrees below zero at the end of the week.
In the Czech Republic the railways suffered as the extreme weather buckled tracks and engines broke down. Romania, central Serbia and Bulgaria are all in the grip of the big freeze with Ukraine reporting over 18 deaths. It is not just humans having to battle the cold – in southern Russia severe frosts have caused the deaths of thousands of fish after river levels which were already low completely froze. Transport, communications and power lines are all being hit. Several stranded lorry drivers faced a night in their cabs as roads became impassable. And in Romania an unlikely crew came to the rescue of 300 stray dogs being held in kennels just outside Bucharest. Volunteers from a local prison worked for several hours to dig out alleyways at the shelter to help the freezing animals.
Bulgaria faces further 'Code Orange' weather warning - Bulgaria faced another day of RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES on Tuesday, January 31, with a "Code Orange" weather warning in force for the whole country and with the severe weather having claimed two lives the previous day.

EXTREME HEAT & DROUGHT / WILDFIRES / CLIMATE CHANGE -

Southern California RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES - January 26, Southern California ws experiencing record-breaking high temperatures, with some areas also getting powerful winds. Santa Barbara, San Diego and Los Angeles counties all had record highs for this time of the year Thursday.
At Santa Barbara Airport, the high was 85 degrees, breaking a record of 82 set in 1947. Other areas also were in the 80s.

AUSTRALIA - Perth has sweltered through its HOTTEST JANUARY IN 34 YEARS.

Tuesday, January 31, 2012

2012-01-31T01:35:00.002-06:00

Jelly-like blue balls fall from the sky - Mysterious blue balls that fell from the sky on to a yard in southern England are to be analysed by scientists, as theories abound as to exactly what the strange objects are. The jelly-like spheres, which are about 3cm in diameter, and rained down on a backyard last Friday during a brief hailstorm. "They were almost impossible to pick up, they were very jelly-like. I had to get a spoon and flick them into a jam jar. They had an exterior shell with a soft inside. They only landed in our garden in an area of a couple of hundred square metres. It is the most peculiar thing I have ever seen - there must be about 20 complete spheres. They don't smell and they don't float. I've been an aircraft engineer for many years and I've never seen anything like it." Theories have sprung up ever since the mysterious find was reported, with some suggesting the balls were crystals that are used in floral displays and others claiming they were ammunition for a toy gun. The UK Meteorological Office has said the transparent, marble-sized objects were "not meteorological". He is keeping the balls in his fridge and has accepted an offer from local university scientists to analyse them. "I think it is some kind of atmospheric pollution. Pollution forms into spheres and fell like the hailstones". ( Researchers at Bournemouth University have speculated that the small blue balls may be marine invertebrate eggs which could be transferred from the feet of birds. Photos )

**In politics you must always keep running with the pack.
The moment that you falter and they sense that you are injured,
the rest will turn on you like wolves.**
R.A. Butler

LARGEST QUAKES -
This morning -
None 5.0 or higher.

Yesterday -
1/30/12 -
5.0 SERAM, INDONESIA
5.1 SIMEULUE, INDONESIA
6.3 NEAR COAST OF CENTRAL PERU

More than 100 reported injured as magnitude-6.3 quake strikes central Peru - The powerful earthquake has injured scores of people, buckled buildings and caused power outages on the coast south of Lima. The quake struck at 11 minutes after midnight (0511 GMT), nine miles (15 kilometers) southeast of Ica. The city was badly damaged by a magnitude-8 earthquake in August 2007.

Haiti, DR may be facing big quake period - Haiti and the neighbouring Dominican Republic could be in for a period of periodic powerful earthquakes, according to a scientific study released Thursday. The study says Haiti's 7.0-magnitude earthquake two years ago is likely to be the first of several quakes of a similarly powerful magnitude. The Jan. 12, 2010, earthquake caused widespread damage in the Haitian capital and surrounding cities. The disaster killed 314,000 people and toppled thousands of crudely built homes.
"The 2010 Haiti earthquake may mark the beginning of a new cycle of large earthquakes on the Enriquillo fault system after 240 years of seismic quiescence. The entire Enriquillo fault system appears to be seismically active; Haiti and the Dominican Republic should prepare for future devastating earthquakes."
A series of four major earthquakes of magnitude 6.6 and higher struck Hispaniola, the Caribbean island shared by Haiti and the Dominican Republic. The phase began in 1701, near the site of the 2010 quake, and ended in 1770. There was no evidence of significant earthquake activity on the Enriquillo fault system in the 240 years from 1770 until the 2010 disaster, except for an earthquake in 1860 that likely occurred offshore. Moderate quakes have struck the Dominican Republic in recent weeks but there were no reports of damage.

VOLCANOES -

ICELAND - Glacial Outburst Flood from Grímsvötn Volcano. It is believed that a glacial outburst flood (jökulhlaup) occurred in the Grímsvötn volcano in Vatnajökull Sunday as the river Gígjukvísl was dark in color in the afternoon and commuters smelled sulfur in the air by the bridge across the Ring Road in south Iceland. However, the glacial outburst is not considered to be a matter of concern. Heavy rain and high temperatures in the past days after excessive snowfall caused snow to melt, damaging parts of the Ring Road between Núpsvötn and Gígjukvísl in Skeiðarársandur, as well as to the east of Gígjukvísl.

GREECE - Santorini volcano strong seismic swarm continues. The highly unusual swarm of earthquakes SW of Santorini on the main fault zone that also defines the volcanic vents of the region continues with about 10 quakes larger than magnitude 2 during the past 24 hours. 2 of the quakes were magnitude 4 and 4.7, respectively. Greek media start to pick up the story and become increasingly interested.
From 1993 until 2010 there was deflation in the caldera of about 1cm/year. Since the beginning of 2011 that has changed to inflationon the north part of the caldera, rapid episodes of inflation have been recorded at intervals that coincide with bursts in seismic activity. Since August the intensity of the phenomenon warranted a rise to alert level 4 (red), where it has remained ever since. A displacement of 10 million cubic meters has been located 1km north of the central island of Nea Kameni at a depth of 4 km, it is hypothesized that it is a magma intrusion, located right at the center of the most seismicity active part of the caldera. Co2 levels have jumped to 39 tonnes/day along with the emission of other gasses, a rising gas column has been observed outside the port of Thirassia in the caldera (the island on the west rim). The rise in sea water temperature in the caldera has been confirmed.
Most of the Greek scientists have brushed any concerns saying that conditions are normal and that has happened before. A geologist from Athens University even said on TV that there is no danger even of a large earthquake in the vicinity of the island - the next day there were 3 earthquakes magnitude 5 and above, 50 km to the SW at the other end of the fault line. Foreign geologists have a very different opinion. A geologist from Oxford mentioned that the evidence points to something important, there is volcanic activity and the volcano is now potentially active at depth.

TROPICAL STORMS -
In the Indian Ocean -
Tropical cyclone 09s (Iggy) was located approximately 260 nm west of Learmonth, Australia.

Tropical Cyclone Iggy triggered Indonesian tornadoes - An area of developing low pressure, which eventually developed into Tropical Cyclone Iggy, triggered tornadoes across the islands of Java and Bali in Indonesia. The tornadoes damaged nearly 1000 houses.

Tropical cyclone Iggy is forecast to strike Australia as a tropical storm at about 08:00 GMT on February 3.

Flood-hit Fiji braces for cyclone - Fiji is bracing for a cyclone which could reignite the country's flood crisis, as the clean-up from last week's flooding continues. A tropical depression is heading towards Fiji and meteorologists say it could become a cyclone.

HEAVY SNOW / EXTREME COLD -

Deaths in Ukraine and Poland in freezing Europe weather - Emergency shelters have been set up in the Bulgarian capital Sofia after days of freezing weather At least 18 people have died in Ukraine and 10 in Poland after heavy snow fall and a sudden drop in temperatures across east Europe. Three deaths were also reported in Serbia and one in Bulgaria.
Ukrainian officials said nearly 500 people had sought treatment for frostbite and hypothermia in just three days. And over that time, more than 17,000 people had sought refuge in some 1,500 shelters. Temperatures have plunged to -16C (3F) during the day and -23C (-10F) at night.
Poland had been having a relatively mild winter, until temperatures dropped last Friday from just below freezing to -26C (-15F). Polish forecasters have warned that temperatures could fall further during the week, to below -20C during the day and -30C at night. In Serbia, police reported that the snowy conditions had led to the deaths of a woman and two elderly men. Two other men, in their 70s, are believed to be missing in the south of the country. The freezing conditions also claimed a life in neighbouring Bulgaria. Emergency shelters offering food and heat are being set up in the Bulgarian capital Sofia and the Czech capital Prague.

Quake efforts blamed for rise in snow mishaps in Japan - This winter's heavier snowfall in Japan has seen more than 500 people across seven prefectures die or be injured in snow-related accidents, including cases in which they had been trying to remove snow. People are trying to remove snow themselves using shovels and other tools because of delays in municipal-led snow removal. The delays have been caused by a shortage of dump trucks - many of which are being used in areas affected by the Great East Japan Earthquake for reconstruction work - to transport snow. The death toll from such snow-related accidents had reached 31 as of Wednesday, while 479 people had sustained injuries. In Aomori City, the municipal government recently conducted intensive snow removal in residential areas. But the snow removal was five days behind schedule and much of the snow had compacted. Construction companies have reduced the number of dump trucks in their fleets to save costs due to downsized public works projects. Many dump trucks, mainly from independent truckers, are also being used in the disaster-hit Tohoku region. Thus fewer trucks remain in other areas of the nation.Snow dumping sites measuring about 11,250 square-meters in Akita City have reached capacity 15 days earlier than the previous year. The municipal government has decided to create a new snow dumping site next to the original sites.

EXTREME HEAT & DROUGHT / WILDFIRES / CLIMATE CHANGE -

New USDA plant zones clearly show climate change.

Australia - Extreme weather hits east and west. Australia's two largest states are being challenged by remarkably different
weather patterns, with summer storms flooding parts of Queensland as the hot and dry conditions in Western Australia fuel dangerous bushfires.

SPACE WEATHER -

Forget global warming - it's Solar Cycle 25 we need to worry about (and if NASA scientists are right the Thames will be freezing over again). Met Office releases new figures which show no warming in 15 years. The supposed ‘consensus’ on man-made global warming is facing an inconvenient challenge after the release of new United Kingdom temperature data showing the planet has not warmed for the past 15 years. The figures suggest that we could even be heading for a mini ice age to rival the 70-year temperature drop that saw frost fairs held on the Thames in the 17th Century. Based on readings from more than 30,000 measuring stations, the data was issued last week without fanfare by the Met Office and the University of East Anglia Climatic Research Unit. It confirms that the rising trend in world temperatures ended in 1997.
Meanwhile, leading climate scientists said that after emitting unusually high levels of energy throughout the 20th Century, the sun is now heading towards a ‘grand minimum’ in its output, threatening cold summers, bitter winters and a shortening of the season available for growing food. Solar output goes through 11-year cycles, with high numbers of sunspots seen at their peak. We are now at what should be the peak of what scientists call ‘Cycle 24’ – which is why last week’s solar storm resulted in sightings of the aurora borealis further south than usual. But sunspot numbers are running at less than half those seen during cycle peaks in the 20th Century. Analysis by experts at NASA and the University of Arizona – derived from magnetic-field measurements 120,000 miles beneath the sun’s surface – suggest that Cycle 25, whose peak is due in 2022, will be a great deal weaker still.
There is a 92 per cent chance that both Cycle 25 and those taking place in the following decades will be as weak as, or weaker than, the ‘Dalton minimum’ of 1790 to 1830. In this period average temperatures in parts of Europe fell by 2C. However, it is also possible that the new solar energy slump could be as deep as the ‘Maunder minimum’ (after astronomer Edward Maunder), between 1645 and 1715 in the coldest part of the ‘Little Ice Age’ when, as well as the Thames frost fairs, the canals of Holland froze solid. Yet, in its paper, the Met Office claimed that the consequences now would be negligible – because the impact of the sun on climate is far less than man-made carbon dioxide. Although the sun’s output is likely to decrease until 2100, ‘This would only cause a reduction in global temperatures of 0.08C. Our findings suggest a reduction of solar activity to levels not seen in hundreds of years would be insufficient to offset the dominant influence of greenhouse gases.’ These findings are fiercely disputed by other solar experts.
In 2007, the Met Office claimed that global warming was about to ‘come roaring back’. It said that between 2004 and 2014 there would be an overall increase of 0.3C. In 2009, it predicted that at least three of the years 2009 to 2014 would break the previous temperature record set in 1998. So far there is no sign of any of this happening. ‘If temperatures continue to stay flat or start to cool again, the divergence between the models and recorded data will eventually become so great that the whole scientific community will question the current theories." As the Met Office model attaches much greater significance to CO2 than to the sun, it was bound to conclude that there would not be cooling. ‘The real issue is whether the model itself is accurate." It is becoming evident that factors other than CO2 play an important role in rising or falling warmth, such as the 60-year water temperature cycles in the Pacific and Atlantic oceans. When both oceans were cold in the past, such as from 1940 to 1970, the climate cooled. The Pacific cycle ‘flipped’ back from warm to cold mode in 2008 and the Atlantic is also thought likely to flip in the next few years . Some scientists found the importance of water cycles difficult to accept, because doing so means admitting that the oceans – not CO2 – caused much of the global warming between 1970 and 1997. The same goes for the impact of the sun – which was highly active for much of the 20th Century.
‘Nature is about to carry out a very interesting experiment. Ten or 15 years from now, we will be able to determine much better whether the warming of the late 20th Century really was caused by man-made CO2, or by natural variability.’ Meanwhile, since the end of last year, world temperatures have fallen by more than half a degree, as the cold ‘La Nina’ effect has re-emerged in the South Pacific. ‘We’re now well into the second decade of the pause. If we don’t see convincing evidence of global warming by 2015, it will start to become clear whether the models are bunk. And, if they are, the implications for some scientists could be very serious.’

Monday, January 30, 2012

2012-01-30T02:14:00.001-06:00

**Inventions are wont to be pretty toys
which distract our attention from serious things.
They are but improved means to an unimproved end."
Henry David Thoreau

LARGEST QUAKES -
This morning -
6.3 NEAR COAST OF CENTRAL PERU

Yesterday -
1/29/12 -
5.2 NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC RIDGE
5.1 KYUSHU, JAPAN
5.3 MINDANAO, PHILIPPINES

1/28/12 -
5.2 PAPUA, INDONESIA
5.3 SIMEULUE, INDONESIA
5.2 SIMEULUE, INDONESIA
5.0 KERMADEC ISLANDS, NEW ZEALAND
5.4 KERMADEC ISLANDS, NEW ZEALAND
5.3 KERMADEC ISLANDS, NEW ZEALAND
5.2 KERMADEC ISLANDS, NEW ZEALAND
5.3 KERMADEC ISLANDS, NEW ZEALAND
5.8 KERMADEC ISLANDS, NEW ZEALAND
5.8 KERMADEC ISLANDS, NEW ZEALAND
5.0 NEAR EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
5.6 NEAR EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
5.1 POTOSI, BOLIVIA
5.1 BABUYAN ISL REGION, PHILIPPINES
5.3 CATANDUANES, PHILIPPINES
5.0 SOUTHERN EAST PACIFIC RISE

1/27/12 -
5.2 SOUTH OF BALI, INDONESIA
5.1 NEAR N COAST OF PAPUA, INDONESIA
5.1 OFF W COAST OF NORTHERN SUMATRA
5.2 EASTERN HONSHU, JAPAN
5.0 OFF EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
5.0 NEAR EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
5.1 IZU ISLANDS, JAPAN REGION
5.0 NORTHERN ITALY
5.4 DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE

1/26/12 -
5.4 MARIANA ISLANDS REGION
5.3 SCOTIA SEA
5.3 ROTA REGION, N. MARIANA ISLANDS
5.3 DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE (many aftershocks continuing)

VOLCANOES -

A new vent has opened on one of Costa Rica's active volcanoes, the latest activity following a series of small eruptions beginning in 2010.

Increased activity of Sangay volcano, Ecuador - There has been an intensification of Sangay volcano's activity, as indicated by reports from pilots who reported the presence of ash from the volcano drifting S-SE.

TROPICAL STORMS -
In the Indian Ocean -
Tropical cyclone 09s (Iggy) was located approximately 240 nm northwest of Learmonth, Australia.

Indonesia - Tropical Cyclone Iggy Leaves 16 Dead and Trail of Destruction. More than 2300 houses in 35 districts and cities across Java and Bali have been damaged in the last four days due to heavy winds and rain whipped up by Tropical Cyclone Iggy, churning just south of Bali and the Nusa Tenggara island chain. Many victims were crushed by falling trees. 60 people were injured.

The tropical cyclone which closed some offshore Western Australia oil fields and threatened the region's rich iron ore mining region has weakened and is expected to head away from the coast.

Fiji on alert for cyclone - Fiji is on alert as a tropical depression that forecasters say could become a cyclone heads for the Pacific island state. Reports from the capital Suva today said flood warnings were in force as more heavy rain was predicted over the next 24 hours.

Mozambique - At least 26 people died and other 125,000 were affected when tropical storm “Dando” and cyclone “Funso” hit the southern, central and northern regions of Mozambique in the last few days.

EXTREME HEAT & DROUGHT / WILDFIRES / CLIMATE CHANGE -

Florida - Bush fire. Ten people have been killed in a multi-vehicle crash on a highway in the American state of Florida. The pile-up occurred before dawn on Interstate 75 near Gainesville. Reports say it involved at least 12 cars and six trucks. The road was shrouded in a cloud of thick smoke caused by a bush fire. At least 18 people were taken to hospital and wreckage was strewn for nearly a mile (1.6km) along the road. One driver said that he was travelling home early in the morning when he ran into a bank of thick fog and smoke. "You could hear cars hitting each other. People were crying. People were screaming. It was crazy. If I could give you an idea of what it looked like, I would say it looked like the end of the world."

SPACE WEATHER -

A string of massive solar storms have unleashed their fury on the Earth in the last 48 hours, just the first set of strong solar storms expected to hit our planet in the coming months. NASA scientists report that the most recent solar flare — the strongest one to date this year — erupted Friday from the same active region of the sun that triggered a raging solar tempest earlier this week.
The latest coronal mass ejection (CME) was moving at almost 1,553 miles per second, and it could cause a number of disruptions. The solar storm, which is just the latest to bombard Earth, has put on a show for stargazers and astronomers alike. The solar storms have also caused a bit of havoc for NASA, which had to take into consideration astronauts working on the International Space Station. The mass of energy poses problems to astronauts and spacecraft, which do not have the added protection of the Earth’s magnetic field. The solar storms have also caused problems for airlines, which as a safety precaution have rerouted flights flying over the North Pole. The resulting streams of radiation that bounce across the Earth’s magnetic field are able to cause long lasting radiation storms that could also impact satellite and ground communications systems.
Although the Sun’s corona has been observed during total eclipses of the Sun for thousands of years, the existence of coronal mass ejections was unrealized until the space age. NASA scientists announced in late 2011 that they expect 2012 and 2013 to be one of the most active times in recent memory for increased solar activity. “I would expect that we will see more storms like this one or even bigger as we get closer to solar maximum."

Thursday, January 26, 2012

2012-01-26T03:27:00.002-06:00

No update tomorrow.

Obama Orders Strategy for Protecting Nation’s Supply Chain - Obama is directing the Departments of State and Homeland Security to develop a plan to protect the $14.6 trillion U.S. economy from interruptions in the international supply chain. A National Strategy for Global Supply Chain Security that gives officials from those departments six months to make recommendations on how to spot risks and make commercial infrastructure more resilient. “Disruptions to supply chains caused by natural disasters -- earthquakes, tsunamis and volcanic eruptions -- and from criminal and terrorist networks seeking to exploit the system or use it as a means of attack can adversely impact global economic growth and productivity. As a nation, we must address the challenges posed by these threats and strengthen our national and international policies accordingly."
Hurricane Katrina in 2005 threatened or disrupted the U.S. oil and refining industry. The 2010 eruption of the Eyjafjallajokull volcano in Iceland led to flight cancellations on almost a global scale. The Japan earthquake and tsunami last year interrupted imports and exports and hurt the U.S. auto and other industries, costing jobs.
“We must continue to strengthen global supply chains to ensure that they operate effectively in time of crisis, recover quickly from disruptions and facilitate international trade and travel." Obama directed department officials to confer with state, federal and international government agencies and private industry to identify areas that are most at risk and come up with layered defenses and tightened security steps to guard against disruptions, the strategy says.

**Drop the last year into the silent limbo of the past.
Let it go, for it was imperfect, and thank god that it can go.**
Brooks Atkinson

LARGEST QUAKES -
This morning -
5.3 ROTA REGION, N. MARIANA ISLANDS
5.2 DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE (many aftershocks continuing)

Yesterday -
1/25/12 -
5.3 NEAR EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
5.2 SOUTH PACIFIC OCEAN
5.0 TONGA
5.1 NEAR WEST COAST OF COLOMBIA
5.3 NEW BRITAIN REGION, P.N.G.
5.2 OFF W. COAST OF S. ISLAND, N.Z.
5.1 FOX ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN ISLANDS

INDIA - Delhi's high-rises vulnerable to Himalayan quake. Tall buildings in Delhi will come crashing down if a strong earthquake occurs in the northwest region of the Himalayas, warns a research seismologist who had predicted the Sumatran quake that caused the deadly tsunami in 2004. Buildings taller than 17 metres in the nation’s capital are vulnerable even though the city is more than 300 km away from the Uttarakhand-Himachal region where scientists expect the next high magnitude earthquake. Bapat, formerly head of the earthquake engineering department at the Central Water and Power Research Station, says his warning is based on a careful analysis of damage caused by the 7.9 magnitude Gujarat earthquake that occurred Jan 26, 2001, with its epicentre near Bhuj.
“Maximum destruction from an earthquake is normally confined to an area of 20 to 30 km radius from the epicentre. However, in the case of the Bhuj quake, extensive damage was caused in Ahmedabad, which is about 320 km from Bhuj.” While tall buildings in Ahmedabad collapsed, the damage was minimal to buildings that had only two or three floors. The “distance effect” – where the damage is felt far away from the epicentre — is characteristic of “Rayleigh waves” produced during an earthquake. There are about 100 tall buildings in the Delhi municipal area and an equal number in the nearby areas, all of which need strengthening to protect against Rayleigh waves. Unlike the “P” and “S” waves that travel through the body of the earth and cause damage close to the epicentre, the Rayleigh waves roll along the surface of the earth just like waves on the ocean and cause damage at a distance — typically between 150 to 550 km from the epicentre. The damage due to Rayleigh waves occur at a distance because the “amplitude” or strength of these waves is higher far away from the epicentre than closer to it.
A situation similar to what happened in Ahmedabad during the Bhuj earthquake will be repeated in Delhi if an earthquake of magnitude 7.5 or more occurs in Himachal or Uttarakhand. “Rayleigh waves from such an earthquake would definitely cause heavy damage to tall structures in Delhi and the entire National Capital Region (NCR)." . During the 8.1 magnitude Mexican earthquake on Sep 19, 1985, Mexico City suffered extensive damage although the epicentre of this earthquake was located at a distance of about 530 km on the Pacific coast. Again the 8.0 magnitude earthquake witnessed by Pakistan Oct 8, 2005, destroyed the tall buildings in Islamabad although the epicentre of this quake was about 150 km from the Pakistani capital.
Mexico revised its seismic code after the 1985 earthquake damage and many countries including the United States, China and Japan have taken steps to protect the tall structures from possible damage due to Rayleigh waves. “But the BIS is yet to initiate any action about revision of the seismic code in India,” he said. “If no action is taken immediately, it is quite possible that the scenarios at Mexico City and Ahmedabad may be repeated in the NCR of Delhi.” Not only Delhi but all cities located at a vulnerable distance from potential epicentres of large magnitude earthquakes should make suitable provisions in the seismic codes, he said. Other vulnerable cities which could see damage to tall structures from large magnitude earthquakes in northeast India are Kolkata as well as Dhaka and Chittagong in Bangladesh. “Lahore and Islamabad in Pakistan could suffer from large magnitude earthquakes in the Himalayas and Hindukush while Mumbai and Karachi could possibly suffer damage due to a tsunami produced by an earthquake in the Makran coast.”
Delhi ignores own quake peril warnings - The Delhi government's own estimates say nine out of every 10 buildings in the city are at risk of moderate or significant quake damage, yet the basic disaster response plan it had promised to complete nearly three years ago remains unfinished. If a major earthquake were to strike India's seismically vulnerable capital, these neighborhoods — India's most crowded — would collapse into an apocalyptic nightmare. Waters from the nearby Yamuna River would turn the water-soaked subsoil to jelly.

VOLCANOES -

CHILE & ARGENTINA - The Chilean airline LAN has canceled 39 flights in Argentina and Chile due to a giant ash cloud emitted by the Cordon Caulle volcano.

ARGENTINA - First volcanic ash - now no snow. The Argentine ski resorts were affected by the eruption of a volcano in Chile, now there is a lack of snow. The main resort of Cerro Catedrale has once again delayed its opening. It hasn't been a great start to the winter
ski season in South America. At the beginning of June the Puyehue volcano chain in the Chilean Andres erupted spewing ash over the surrounding areas. The actual ski resorts were relatively unscathed, but the town of Bariloche and, most importantly its airport and airspace, were badly affected. The airport was closed and has only just re-opened. It is the gateway airport to the main ski areas. The surrounding area has been covered in thick ash and it is stilll affecting many areas.
Cerro Catedrale, the largest ski area in South American has also suffered from a lack of snow. There was some a few weeks ago but it quickly melted. Meanwhile in neighbouring Chile Valle Nevado has also delayed its opening to the beginning of July. Portillo says it will open shortly but only a few runs will be open.

TROPICAL STORMS -
In the Indian Ocean -
- Tropical cyclone 08s (Funso) was located approximately 377 nm east-northeast of Maputo, Mozambique.
- Tropical cyclone 09s (Iiggy) was located approximately 485 nm northwest of Learmonth, Australia.

Tropical Cyclone Iggy - A cyclone watch has been issued for category one Iggy, which formed on the Indian Ocean this morning and is moving southeast towards the west Pilbara Coast of Australia. A flood watch is in place as well. No community alerts have been issued as it remains well away from shore.

Tropical Cyclone Funso is now a dangerous Category 4 cyclone in the Mozambique Channel, moving southward between Mozambique on the African mainland and the island nation of Madagascar. As Funso became a major cyclone two NASA satellites were providing forecasters with valuable storm information. The cloud cover extends from Mozambique on the African mainland, east to the coast of the island nation of Madagascar. MODIS imagery also revealed a clear 11 mile-wide eye. Thunderstorm cloud tops surround the entire center of circulation, colder than -63 Fahrenheit (-52.7 Celsius) indicating strong storms, dropping heavy rainfall.
The TRMM satellite also had a good view of powerful tropical cyclone Funso battering the Mozambique coast when it flew over on January 24. TRMM data showed that Funso was dropping moderate to heavy rainfall in bands covering the Mozambique Channel from eastern Mozambique to western Madagascar.On January 25, Major Tropical Cyclone Funso had maximum sustained winds of 120 knots (138 mph/222 kph). Hurricane-force winds extend out 40 miles (64 km) from the center. Cyclone Funso continues to track the over open waters of the southern Mozambique Channel and forecasts take it out into the Southern Indian Ocean over the next three days without any danger of a direct landfall. (photos & map)

SEVERE RAIN STORMS, FLOODING, LANDSLIDES -

Fiji declares parts of main island a disaster zone as six confirmed dead in bad weather. Parts of Fiji's main island Viti Levu continued to be battered by flooding and heavy rain. About 60 percent of the nation's 850,000 people live on Viti Levu, which is the hub of the island chain and the site of the nation's capital Suva. A family of four, including two children, were killed in a landslide Wednesday after becoming trapped in their home at a village in the island's western Ba region. Earlier this week, two farmers were killed in separate incidents as they tried to protect their livestock from rising waters.
Almost 3500 people have been forced from their homes by the torrential downpour that has continued since the weekend. 74 evacuations centers had been opened across the Pacific nation. The government said roads had been cut and some communities were without power and water supplies, advising people to avoid low-lying areas and take precautions against water-borne illnesses. The tropical low over Fiji was the same one causing flooding today in Queensland, Australia.

CALIFORNIA - Extreme Weather - Boulders came tumbling down rain soaked telegraph hill Tuesday morning in San Francisco. The rocks crushed a car and caused the partial evacuation of an apartment building. The public works department plans to put up a concrete barrier in case loose debris continues to cause problems.
Winds this weekend raged through the desert leaving behind a huge mess in Palm Springs California. The city is so understaffed that the fire chief says they had to send for additional resources from across the state. The wind knocked down about 500 trees, snapped power poles and even started some fires.

Wednesday, January 25, 2012

2012-01-25T03:49:00.002-06:00

Chinese dragon dances into 2012, Indian astrologers warn of earthquakes - As the unpredictable but volatile year of the rabbit hopped into the sunset, the water dragon enters 2012 in what astrologers predict to be a “smooth” but potential year for natural disasters. Steeped in Chinese mythology, the dragon would dominate 2012 beginning Feb 4, and arrive with a ‘mixed bag’, said Indian experts in Chinese astrology which is touted as the world’s oldest horoscope system, besides the Indian Vedic astrology.
“The Year of the Dragon is usually associated with new good beginnings and good fortune." The mightiest of creatures represents a powerful sign in the 12-zodiac 12-year-cycle in Chinese astrology. Since it is related to water, experts warn of water-related troubles. “The dragon, once settled, will cool its fiery nature, though 2012 might see some major disasters. Illnesses and epidemics would be much more rampant than in the previous years. It will be a better year than 2011, many of the problems of last year will also be seen this year, but many changes will be happening later this year, like in the financial market. But since it’s heavily related to water, we can see some water-related natural calamities like tsunami, earthquakes and even water-borne diseases." On January 23 in 1556 (also a dragon year), a massive earthquake struck Central China, killing over 800,000 people.

**The strength and power of despotism
consists wholly in the fear of resistance.**
Thomas Paine

LARGEST QUAKES -
This morning -
5.0 NORTHERN ITALY
5.3 NEW BRITAIN REGION, P.N.G.
5.2 OFF W. COAST OF S. ISLAND, N.Z.
5.1 FOX ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN ISLANDS

Yesterday -
1/24/12 -
5.1 WEST CHILE RISE
5.5 SOUTH SANDWICH ISLANDS REGION
5.1 MINDANAO, PHILIPPINES
6.4 SOUTH OF FIJI ISLANDS
5.0 GUAM REGION

VOLCANOES -

California's Death Valley volcano could come back to life - Geologists have discovered that Death Valley's Ubehebe Crater, formed by a volcanic explosion, was created much more recently than thought — and that it could go off again any time. The half-mile-wide, 600-foot deep crater, was formed when a rising plume of magma hit a pocket of underground water, creating an explosion. But until now, the date was unknown. The most common estimate was about 6,000 years, based partly on Native American artifacts found under debris.
Now, though, a team has used isotopes in rocks blown out of the crater to show that it formed just 800 years ago, around the year 1200. That means it probably still has some strength left in it - and, the scientists believe, there's probably still enough groundwater and magma around for another reaction. Ubehebe is the largest of a dozen craters, clustered over about three square kilometers of Death Valley National Park, but had been poorly studied until now. When it exploded, nothing within two miles would have survived. "It would be fun to witness — but I'd want to be 10 miles away." The eruption dates revealed by the isotopes clustered from 2,100 to 800 years ago. The team beleives this indicates a series of smaller explosions, culminating in the big one that created the main crater around 1200.
As a result, magma is probably still lurking somewhere below - and other researchers have spotted what look like magma bodies under other parts of Death Valley. "Additional small bodies may exist in the region, even if they are sufficiently small not to show up geophysically." The dates indicate an eruption frequency of about every thousand years or less, which puts the current day within the realm of possibility. "There is no basis for thinking that Ubehebe is done." Any eruption would almost certainly be preceded by warning signs such as shallow earthquakes and opening of steam vents, giving several years' warning, so park officials aren't worried. "We've typically viewed Ubehebe as a static feature, but of course we're aware it could come back. This certainly adds another dimension to what we tell the public. Right now, we're not planning to issue an orange alert or anything like that."

TROPICAL STORMS -
In the Indian Ocean -
Tropical cyclone 08s (Funso) was located approximately 400 nm northeast of Maputo, Mozambique.

Powerful, dangerous Tropical Cyclone Funso has continued to lash central Mozambique with flooding rain and damaging winds. The region is staggering from last week's swipe by Tropical Storms Dando, a Category One storm.

Cyclone-hit Indians will take "years" to rebuild livelihoods - It could take "years" for hundreds of thousands of people in southeastern India to rebuild their livelihoods after a devastating cyclone wiped out their entire plantations of cash crops last month.

SEVERE RAIN STORMS, FLOODING, LANDSLIDES -

PAPUA NEW GUINEA - Dozens reported dead in PNG landslide. Up to 60 people are feared killed in a massive landslide which hit villages near the ExxonMobil-led LNG project in Papua New Guinea's Southern Highlands. The landslide struck at 7am (AEDT) yesterday near the Nogoli base for the liquefied natural gas plant site, northwest of Port Moresby. ExxonMobil says all its staff have been accounted for. There are settlements close to the otherwise remote site near Mendi, in the centre of the country, and there are fears lives have been lost. "At this time it is hard to say. Most likely lives have been lost, we cannot tell how many. There were villages - settlements - where the landslide covered." Media reports of deaths are between 40 and 60. "The land is covered and quite extensively. Those little hamlets ... they may not have escaped."
PNG media are reporting 40 bodies have been recovered and another 20 people are still missing, with the damage spreading for two kilometres, leaving roads to nearby villages cut off. One local MP said the landslide completely covered two villages while people slept. "There are people buried underneath and a number of them are, from what I have heard, children." ExxonMobil said the company is in close contact with authorities to help deal with the landslide, which is not expected to hinder the project's completion in 2014. The $16 billion LNG project is due to begin production in 2014 and will see PNG's natural gas sold across Asia for the next 30 years - a plan projected to double PNG's gross domestic product.

Extreme weather threat across Australia - Heavy flooding in the eastern states, tropical activity in the north and a heatwave in the west. This week has turned into one of extreme weather across the Australian continent. There is a growing flood threat across eastern Australia this week, while in Western Australia, Perth is experiencing heatwave conditions for at least another week. In the north of Western Australia, coastal communities will be on alert due to the potential for a tropical cyclone to form.
Widespread rainfall of 50-150mm has caused major flooding in parts of NSW and minor flooding in south-east Queensland. Bellingen in NSW has had a bucket-full, with 167mm in the 24 hours to 9am today, while Upper Darkwood to the west gained 178mm. Dorrigo was inundated with as much as 100mm in just one hour and 209mm during the past 24 hours, their heaviest rain since May 2009. These very high rain totals have led to major flooding on the Bellinger River at Thora, with river levels continuing to rise this morning. In Queensland, Bribie Island received some of the heaviest falls with a daily total of 130mm to 9am today. Hotham Creek to the north of Coomera was drenched with 125mm in the 24-hour period. The scattered persistent rain led to minor flooding on the Paynter River at Diddlibah, inland of Maroochydore. Several severe weather alerts and storm warnings have been issued for NSW and Queensland due to flash flooding. The recent rainfall has saturated the land along the coast and nearby inland and so the bulk of the water has nowhere to go but along the surface. The outlook is for the wet weather to continue for the eastern seaboard over the next several days, particularly along the coast and adjacent ranges.
"Some towns will see even higher rain totals in the 300-400mm range over the next six days, bringing a significant threat of both flash flooding and river flooding. We have a stationary high pressure system in place over the Tasman Sea, which is going to send a persistent flow of moisture-laden air into both Queensland and New South Wales. The entire lower portion of the atmosphere is going to become saturated during the first half of this week, setting the scene for torrential rainfall when a deepening low pressure trough forms along the eastern seaboard."
For the west coast of Western Australia, weather conditions will be in stark contrast, with extended heatwave conditions. Heatwaves can have the greatest toll on human life of any weather phenomena, with the very young and elderly at greatest risk. "Using the most widely accepted heatwave definition of at least five days in a row with maximum temperatures of five or more degrees above average, Perth is certainly going to qualify. Perth's average maximum temperature in January is 30.9 degrees and the forecast is for temperatures near 40 degrees between Tuesday and Sunday. Perth is forecast to face the highest consecutive number of days of high temperatures since 1965.
While Perth is sweltering through an extended run of heat, communities along the north-west coastline of Western Australia will be monitoring the formation of a tropical low over the Indian Ocean. "A monsoonal low over the Indian Ocean is expected to intensify into a tropical cyclone by mid to late week (likely to be named Iggy), with the potential for a coastal impact towards the weekend. There is still uncertainty around the future movement and strength of this system, although the Pilbara coastline would be the area singled out for being most at risk."
Mass evacuations are underway on NSW's north coast, with rivers overflowing from days of heavy rain inundating homes and isolating communities. Almost 2000 people were ordered out of caravan parks and homes along the Tweed River, south of Tweed Heads, after the swollen waterway burst its banks. Residents at eight caravan parks were told to head to an evacuation centre at Kingscliff at 1.30pm (AEDT), followed by the evacuation of 400 people from homes at nearby Fingal Head. "The Bureau of Meteorology advises me that the rain will continue at this intensity for the next 24 to 48 hours. Then there might be a small reprieve on Friday, but back again with a vengeance on the weekend, possibly through to Tuesday."
Flood warnings were issued for EVERY MAJOR RIVER SYSTEM between Taree and the Queensland border - a 500km stretch taking in dozens of towns. Parts of Bellingen remain cut off after the Bellinger River burst its banks on Tuesday. About 500 people remained isolated in Darkwood, upstream of Bellingen, with the SES now carrying out supply runs. Emergency services were concerned about the safety of motorists and holidaymakers on Australia Day, particularly at trouble spots on the Pacific Highway.

Quakes Not the Only Concern California Locals Face, Says Seismologist - While most of the country braces for the big quake to hit California, there is another natural danger that has not only already impacted the state and Loma Linda twice, it's become a growing in risk due to climate change. The public should be equally prepared for the ARkStorm, which describes a scenario of intense rain that leads to catastrophic flooding. The storm could be similar to the one experienced in California in 1862, and four larger such events in the past 100 years.
"The ARkStorm scenario is a complete picture of what that storm would do to the social and economic systems of California. We think this event happens once every 100 or 200 years or so, which puts it in the same category as our big San Andreas earthquakes.” The storm could cause landslides, debris flows, coastal inundation and flooding, USGS officials said. The result could be infrastructure damage and pollution. The scenario is plausible. In fact a smaller version hit Loma Linda in December of 2010. Several days of pounding rain brought down mud and debris from the south facing hills, overwhelming San Timoteo Creek which breached its banks flooding homes and damaging businesses. The damage to city property alone cost more than $1 million. In 1969, the city was devastated by a similar ARkStorm-like storm. That flood in 1969 covered about two-thirds of the town. The ARkStorm Scenario explores the resulting impacts to the social structure and can be used to understand how California’s “other” Big One can be more expensive than a large San Andreas earthquake.

Tuesday, January 24, 2012

2012-01-24T01:23:00.002-06:00

Massive solar eruption to send radiation storm toward Earth - An immense blast of plasma spewing from the sun is to bombard Earth with THE STRONGEST RADIATION STORM SINCE 2005, prompting a RARE warning from US weather officials and even a plan to redirect certain high-flying airplanes. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Agency issued a watch for a geomagnetic storm, expected to reach our planet today, after a satellite witnessed an ultraviolet flash from Sunday night's massive solar eruption.
The storm poses no risk to Earth-dwellers. But as a rare precaution, polar flights on Earth are expected to be re-routed. Eruptions on the sun shoot tremendous streams of charged particles away from the star - in this case directly towards us. "There is little doubt that the cloud is heading in the general direction of Earth. The blast from the immense solar radiation storm let loose with a so called coronal mass ejection (CME) that will hit the atmosphere Tuesday morning, something NASA and NOAA monitor for as it could cause problems for astronauts, communications satellites, and even rocket launches." It could also affect navigation and the power grid.
The solar flare that spat out on Sunday at 10.59pm local time was rated an M9-class eruption - nearly an X-class flare, the most powerful type of solar storm. NOAA measures geomagnetic storms on a five-point scale from 1 to 5. G1 storms are minor, leading to weak power grid fluctuations and having only minor impact on satellites. G5 storms are extreme, leading to widespread voltage control problems, damage to transformers, radio outages and satellite problems. Geomagnetic storms today may be as strong as G3, causing intermittent navigation issues and problems with low-Earth satellites.

**Healing is a matter of time,
but it is sometimes also a matter of opportunity.**
Hippocrates

LARGEST QUAKES -
This morning -
6.1 SOUTH OF FIJI ISLANDS
5.0 GUAM REGION

Yesterday -
1/23/12 -
5.2 DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
5.0 OFFSHORE BIO-BIO, CHILE
5.8 OFFSHORE BIO-BIO, CHILE
5.4 NEAR EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
5.0 ISLAND OF HAWAII, HAWAII

Japan - Major Tokyo quake far more likely than government says. There is a 70% chance a magnitude 7 quake will jolt the southern part of the Tokyo metropolitan area in the next four YEARS, the university's Earthquake Research Institute said on Monday, warning companies and individuals to be prepared for such an event. In contrast, the government estimates a 70% probability of such an event in the next three DECADES.
A government survey says a magnitude 7.3 quake centered in the north of Tokyo Bay would cause about 11,000 casualties and destroy around 850,000 buildings, though one of the University of Tokyo team said it was hard to predict the impact of a major quake on the city. "The chance that a magnitude 7 earthquake will happen (in the area) has increased since the March quake. At this time, the government, individuals and corporations should prepare for that." A government official said the Tokyo University estimate was based on a different model from the one it uses. The university calculations take account of the greater seismic activity since March, while the government uses older data. There has been a fivefold increase in the number of quakes in the Tokyo metropolitan area since the March disaster, the research team said.
A magnitude 7.3 quake hit central Japan in 1995, devastating the port city of Kobe. It killed more than 6,400 people and caused an estimated $100 billion in damage. The Great Kanto earthquake of 1923 had a magnitude of 7.9 and killed more than 140,000 people in the Tokyo area. Seismologists have said another such quake could strike the city at any time.

5.8 Offshore Quake Causes Panic, No Tsunami in Chile - Monday's quake was centered 31 miles (50 kilometers) northwest of Concepcion, and was relatively shallow at 12 miles (20 kilometers) under sea level. But Chile's navy announced that it wasn't the kind of quake to generate a deadly tsunami.

TROPICAL STORMS -
In the Indian Ocean -
Tropical cyclone 08s (Funso) was located approximately 550 nm northeast of Maputo, Mozambique.

Cyclone Funso kills 12 in Mozambique - At least 12 people have been killed and thousands displaced when cyclone Funso hit central Mozambique at the weekend.
Tropical Cyclone Funso Still a Danger to Mozambique - Powerful, dangerous Tropical Cyclone Funso has continued to lash central Mozambique with flooding rain and damaging winds, even as it drifts away from the immediate coast. At least 12 people in Mozambique have been killed, and thousands of people have been driven from their homes, owing to a series of storms that began early last week. In an incident related to the early stages of Funso's development, there were apparently no survivors from ferry carrying 54 people that sunk on Jan. 18 off the Comoros Islands.
The Category 2 to Category 3 storm hovered nearly stationary within 50 to 100 miles the coast between the towns of Angoche and Quelimane between Friday and Sunday, when its center began to pull slowly away to the southeast. Highest sustained winds since Friday have ranged mostly from 105 to 115 mph. Owing to the long duration of high winds and torrential rain, reaches of the coast near the storm's offshore center may have suffered severe damage. High waves and storm tides undoubtedly battered the coast. Monday morning, top winds were reckoned by the JTWC to be about 115 mph, or those of a Category 3 hurricane. Drifting southeastward at less than 5 mph, the storm's eye had slipped to more than 100 miles off the mid coast of Mozambique.
Official forecasts have Funso remaining a powerful, dangerous cyclone over water for much of the week. Intensity is expected to reach Category 4 status. Movement is forecast to be mostly towards the east between Mozambique and Madagascar. The most likely path would steer the worst of the storm's potentially catastrophic winds away from land. Even so there is at least a small chance for a turn towards land.

Killer Fiji storm - Central Nadi swamped yesterday by floodwaters. Heavy flooding struck the Fijian tourist hub of Nadi and the northern city of Ba as a large tropical depression hit the region. By last night, more than 20 evacuation centres had been set up in Nadi while Ba was under nearly 2m of water. The flooding has already claimed one life after a 30-year-old farmer trying to save his pigs in Dogoru River, Labasa, was caught in the rushing waters and became trapped in branches. In Ba alone, 133 evacuees are at a kindergarten while five more families have taken shelter in a school. The heavy rain in Fiji also caused the worst floods on the northern island of Vanua Levu in three years. The Fiji Meteorological Service said heavy rain would continue to fall over much of Fiji until tomorrow, causing more flooding in low-lying areas throughout the country. In 2009, hundreds of tourists from New Zealand and Australia were stranded by flooding in the same areas that have been hit this week. At that time, authorities declared a state of emergency in areas struck by a tropical storm, which killed eight people and left more than 9000 displaced.

Australia - A tropical cyclone could develop off the Northern Territory coast later this week, with a severe weather warning already in place. The Bureau of Meteorology predicted heavy rain, damaging winds and ABNORMALLY high tides off the north coast as a strengthening monsoon trough develops. There is a moderate chance a cyclone could form tomorrow or Thursday.
Heavy rains resulting in flash flooding are expected today over the northern Darwin, Daly and Arnhem areas, including the Tiwi Islands and the Cobourg Peninsula. Monsoon squalls with damaging winds of up to 90 kilometres per hour are also forecast, with northwesterly winds likely to cause tides to exceed the normal high tide zone in coastal areas between Cape Don and Cape Shield. Between 9pm (CST) on Monday and 3am (CST) today, 59 millimetres of rain fell at Black Point on the Cobourg Peninsula, while the Tiwi Islands copped a battering of 50mm. "Isolated storms are continuing in those areas, with a very strong squall line expected to keep moving along the coast throughout the day."
Twin tropical lows could combine to form monster cyclone system - Multiple tropical lows are threatening to form into cyclones by Australia Day bringing wind and rain to North Western Australia.

HEAVY SNOW / EXTREME COLD -

United Arab Emirates - Country continues to shiver as Met department records sub-zero temperatures at Jebel Jais area of Ras Al Khaimah. The UAE will wake up to the 'chilling' news that the cold snap that has enveloped the country will continue through the week.
Unaccustomed to the chill, UAE residents are putting up a brave front as a cold wave continues to spread across the length and breadth of the country, with extreme weather conditions sweeping mountainous regions and the country recording its lowest temperatures for the year yesterday. Minimum temperatures are set to dip to 0°C in the UAE’s mountainous regions while internal areas could see temperatures dipping to a nippy 5°C and coastal areas could see minimum temperatures of 13°C. Rough weather has prompted a warning to beachgoers across the UAE to refrain from venturing into the sea. The UAE’s met department has predicted that the rough weather will continue until Friday. Strong winds have been buffeting Dubai since early morning.

Monday, January 23, 2012

2012-01-22T22:55:00.001-06:00

Does enduring extreme weather make you vote liberal? - On the heels of a disastrous weather year in the USA, and with the long presidential campaign season looming, a new study finds that people who have endured extreme weather events are more likely to support environmental legislation, even if it means restricting individual freedoms. Additionally, the authors write in the study that "our results are consistent with the idea that experiencing extreme weather causes individuals to become more aware of the issue of global warming, and increases their perception of the risk of global warming."
Although the survey focused mainly on heat waves and droughts, and was conducted in the summer, their findings can be extrapolated to any type of severe weather event, including blizzards and tropical storms. The study authors report that potentially, weather disasters may hurt conservative candidates more than liberal candidates, because of their positions on environmental policy. Other findings from the study include:
•People who believe that global warming is an important issue are more willing to support regulation that might restrict individual freedom.
•People who consult more news sources and environmentalists are less likely to have their attitudes toward global warming changed by current weather conditions.
•Experiencing extreme weather has the greatest impact on respondents who are less aware or knowledgeable about global warming.

**Only strength can cooperate. Weakness can only beg.**
Dwight D. Eisenhower

LARGEST QUAKES -
This morning -
5.2 FIJI REGION

Yesterday -
1/22/12 -
5.2 LAKE RUDOLF REGION, KENYA
5.2 SOUTH SANDWICH ISLANDS REGION
6.0 SOUTH SANDWICH ISLANDS REGION

TROPICAL STORMS -
In the Indian Ocean -
- Tropical cyclone 08s (Funco) was located approximately 610 nm northeast of Maputo, Mozambique.
-Tropical cyclone 07s (Ethel) was located approximately 635 nm southeast of Port Louis. Now a cold core cyclone, the system is forecast to continue accelerating and weakening as it recurves into the mid-latitudes. This is the final warning on this system by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center. The system will be closely monitored for signs of regeneration.

SEVERE RAIN STORMS, FLOODING, LANDSLIDES -

U.S. - Tornado touches down in Arkansas as storms menace U.S. A twister touched down 70 miles south of the Arkansas state capital late Sunday, as forecasters warned that tornadoes and heavy storms could mete out punishment to several southeast states into Monday. The tornado tore into an area outside of Fordyce, in Dallas County, Ark, around 8:00 p.m. local time, damaging houses and felling trees and power lines as it moved. The potential for severe storms overnight and into Monday stretched from the Gulf of Mexico in Mississippi to southern Indiana and Ohio. "A few destructive, long-track tornadoes are quite possible." The severe storms created "an especially dangerous situation given the veil of night."
Heavy rain fell on state capital Little Rock, while parts of the state were pelted by golf-ball sized hailstones and buffeted by winds gusting up to 70 miles per hour. Funnel clouds were spotted within 20 miles of state capital Little Rock. Roughly 11,600 homes were without power across Arkansas as the storms intensified. Roughly one third of Arkansas tornadoes occur at night and are difficult to see in the darkness.
In Alabama, residents were bracing for storms that could hit after dark on Sunday or overnight with a strong cold front from the west combining with warm moist air flowing up from the Gulf of Mexico. The weather service said thunderstorms could bring wind gusts up to 80 mph, tornadoes or gulf ball-sized hail in Mississippi. Farther west, the weather service warned of a high fire danger in Texas with wind gusts of up to 50 mph.
A second stormfront expected to hit California late Sunday night will bring significant snowfall to the mountain regions, before rolling into the southern United States later in the week. Parts of central and southern California were under a winter weather warning as a storm system was expected to sweep into the area late Sunday into Monday morning, with the weather service predicting 6 to 12 inches of snow. The Sierras and the Rockies may accumulate as much as 3 feet of snow, the weather service said, and driving in mountain passes will be "very hazardous" due to low visibility, gusting winds and heavy snowfall. In Reno, Nevada, meanwhile, snowfall provided welcome relief to firefighters who were monitoring remaining hotspots from a blaze that raged near the outskirts of the city beginning Thursday, destroying 30 houses and prompting thousands of people to flee their homes. "As long as we keep on getting snow instead of rain, it looks like we'll be okay, at least for the next couple of days." Rain had threatened the area with flash flooding on Friday night. Emergency responders had the blaze 100 percent contained as of Saturday, and all residents have been allowed to return to their homes.
In the upper Midwest, freezing drizzle was expected to make roads and sidewalks slippery from southeastern Minnesota into Wisconsin, changing to snow later Sunday. Up to 4 inches of snow was expected farther north in southeast North Dakota and west central Minnesota. In the northeast United States, a fast-moving storm from central Pennsylvania eastward dropped up to a foot of snow in parts of Rhode Island and Massachusetts on Saturday.

AUSTRALIA - Cyclone-strength winds rock Queensland town. Cyclone-strength wind gusts have battered a remote north Queensland township, damaging several homes. Gusts of 170km/h and 70mm of rain lashed Hughenden, about 400 kilometres west of Townsville, yesterday. "We had a few wind gusts, but that was easily the strongest of all of them. Hughenden rocked everyone else. You can compare them to cyclones, but cyclones last for a sustained period of time and these winds lasted about an hour or so. We classify them as a destructive wind." One woman had to be taken to hospital, there were half a dozen calls for help and about three homes were damaged. More storms in the area were possible, but it was unlikely they would again generate such strong winds. "It's QUITE RARE. Usually the range it reaches is 90 to 100km per hour. Getting up to 170 is at the high end of the scale."

HEAVY SNOW / EXTREME COLD -

Sri Lanka - Nuwara Eliya torn between extreme weather patterns. Warm days and freezing nights play havoc with the lives of girls, boys, fruits, flowers and veggies. The UNUSUAL drop in temperature in Nuwara Eliya has had widespread repercussions, with people finding it difficult to cope with the extreme weather, damage to crops and drop in water levels. Last Monday (16), the temperature in Nuwara Eliya dropped to 2.7 Celsius accompanied by ground frost. In 2009, the temperature dropped to 2.6 Celsius. Similar temperatures were experienced in 1929 and 1953. However, the lowest recorded temperature was on June 30, 1914, when it went down to -3.7 Celsius. Such low temperatures were due to the usual passage of wind through the North-East border during the North-East monsoon, which deviated to a more northerly route, passing over the Himalayas, across the Indian Ocean. This results in cold weather in the morning and night. Though the city seems picturesque, the climatic patterns have severely disrupted the lives of the people in Nuwara-Eliya due to the cold weather. “Due to such extreme weather, crops such as beetroot, potatoes and lettuce were damaged. During the day, the sunlight is very bright and strong, and the streams have dried up." Many foreigners and local tourists are visiting the city to witness the scene. The Wildlife Department staff at Horton Plains said that they were finding it very difficult to carry out their duties in such extreme weather, with last Monday the temperature dropping to 1.5 Celsius at Horton Plains. Extreme weather changes in the district had damaged crops in certain areas in the Ragala-Nuwara Eliya area. “Within four days – January 16 to 19, 50 acres of leeks, beetroot, carrot, potatoes and lettuce cultivation were affected in Kandapola, Galpalama and Aluthpara due to the cold and warm weather fluctuation." Crops covered with frost get burnt when exposed to strong sunlight. Though there was no immediate increase in weather related illnesses, it will take some time for the outcome to manifest itself.“In a short period, the difference in the cases would not be obvious. At least a week’s time is needed to study the consequences. As of now, we don’t see an increase in asthmatic or heart disease cases due to the cold weather." Usually, low temperatures affect asthmatic and elderly heart patients. If the temperature drops below freezing, blood related diseases, headaches and muscle cramps will also occur.
“In such a situation, the elderly should stay indoors very early, before sunset. They should have a wood-fire burning to maintain a warm environment. They should wear warm clothes, gloves and socks. It is advisable to take warm drinks."

EXTREME HEAT & DROUGHT / WILDFIRES / CLIMATE CHANGE -

Top climate change stories of 2011 - For Earth’s climate system, 2011 was an extraordinarily turbulent year. The United States saw A SERIES OF RECORD-BUSTING EXTREMES, from a devastating tornado season to an epic drought in a vital agricultural region. The fusillade of extreme events kept global warming in the public conversation even as it slipped to the bottom of the public’s list of concerns in the face of a grim economy, and as “climate” became a four-letter word in Washington.
Scientists made tangible progress in the emerging area of extreme event attribution, which aims to answer whether extreme weather events can be attributed to climate change, with two studies that shed new light on how a warmer world is already shifting the odds in favor of heavy precipitation events. These studies, and the push to develop the capabilities necessary to rapidly distinguish global warming’s role in extreme events soon after they occur, top the list of the top climate change stories of 2011:
1. Advances in understanding global warming and extreme weather
Two studies published in February made it a lot clearer that manmade global warming is already playing a tangible role in influencing some types of extreme weather events. One study, led by researchers with Environment Canada, analyzed heavy rainfall events recorded at more than 6,000 sites across the Northern Hemisphere, and found that the growing amount of heat-trapping gases in the atmosphere have likely increased the frequency of heavy precipitation events across this region.
The second study demonstrated a new way of analyzing how manmade global warming may have increased the chances for a particular flood that occurred in the U.K. in 2000. The high-resolution computer model used for the study showed that global warming increased the risk of the 2000 flood event by at least 20 percent, with two-thirds of the computer model simulations showing a much larger increase in flood risk, by up to 90 percent.
Climate scientists are moving forward with plans to form an international extreme events attribution group, which will focus on advancing this type of work. Also on the extreme events front, in November, the U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change released a “Special Report on Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation.” The report by the United Nations Intergovermental Panel on Climate Change makes clear that warm weather extremes and heavy precipitation events have increased, most likely as a result of manmade climate change. And it projects with a high degree of confidence increasing hot weather and heavy downpours in the future.
2. Surface temperature record holds up to (another) review
For years, global warming skeptics sought to cast doubt on the surface temperature record. Some said warming was an artifact of the urban heat island effect - which can raise temperatures in urban areas compared to rural locations - rather than increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases. Others pointed to inconsistencies in correcting for gaps or biases in the data. A web-based movement formed, with a small army of volunteers documenting the locations and setup of official weather stations. In response to numerous questions about the surface temperature record, a blue-ribbon panel was organized to find out once and for all if the Earth is really warming, and by how much. The panel was led by a physicist who had expressed skepticism about mainstream climate science findings in the past, and some of the money for the panel came from politically conservative-leaning groups. In the end, though, the Berkeley Earth Study, confirmed what most climate scientists already knew - the surface temperature data is correct in showing a pronounced warming trend. To be specific, the analysis found there has been 0.911 degrees Celsius of land warming (+/- 0.042 C) since the 1950s, or about 1.8 degrees Fahrenheit. The team’s analysis strongly refutes claims that the urban heat island effect causes a warm temperature bias in the surface data. The researchers also found that despite the skeptics’ assertions, readings from networks of temperature stations are not compromised by poor data quality from many of the individual stations.
3. “Climategate 2” falls flat
For the thousands of experts who study the climate, 2011 was something of a rebuilding year - a chance to regroup from the turbulence caused by the so-called “climategate” emails scandal. After multiple investigations cleared climate scientists of the most serious allegations of wrongdoing, more emails between a few top climate researchers were released, again purporting to show climate scientists doctoring scientific evidence and conspiring to keep out dissenting voices from peer-reviewed journals. This time, however, the damage to climate science’s street cred was minimal, as the media and the scientific community quickly found the emails to lack much evidence of anything scientifically significant. The unauthorized release of the new batch of emails may have jump-started what seemed to be a dormant investigation into who obtained the emails and posted them on several websites, with actions by law enforcement agencies in the U.S. and Britain.
4. Congress Nixes National Climate Service
The 2010 midterm elections brought into power a surge of House lawmakers who either strongly questioned or flat out denied the existence of manmade climate change. As a result, the gap between climate scientists and politicians became wide enough to swallow what were once thought of as common sense, bipartisan ideas - such as creating a National Climate Service within the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) to complement the National Weather Service. Under the proposal, which was originally put forward by the Bush administration, the Climate Service would serve as a one-stop shop for climate info, from El Nino forecasts to projections of what the climate may be like 50 years from now.
The proposal called for realigning NOAA’s offices and functions to meet the increasing demand for climate information from farmers, businesses, investors and others who currently must navigate an alphabet soup of NOAA organizations to find the information they’re looking for, and to develop new climate analysis products and tools. NOAA requested no new money for the move, instead seeking congressional approval to restructure itself. House Republicans blocked the move, and even sought to investigate whether NOAA was moving forward with the plan against its wishes. The death of the Climate Service proposal was presaged by a vote last spring that put House members on record about whether they agree with the scientific evidence showing that the globe is warming, likely due in part to human activities.
The amendment, which was offered to a bill aimed at halting proposed U.S. EPA greenhouse gas regulations, stated: “Congress accepts the scientific findings of the Environmental Protection Agency that climate changes is occurring, is caused largely by human activities, and poses significant risks for public health and welfare.”
The fact that it failed by a vote of 184 to 240 (three Democrats were among those who rejected the amendment; one Republican supported it) signals the depth of the problem that scientists, environmental policy advocates, environmentalists, and others face in pushing for climate change action at the federal level. A majority of one chamber of the Congress just does not agree with the conclusions of most publishing climate scientists. This is a remarkable turn of events, considering that the last Congress narrowly passed a sweeping greenhouse gas regulation bill, which died in the Senate.

Sunday, January 22, 2012

2012-01-22T02:44:00.002-06:00

The world in 2011 was not quite as warm as it has been for most of the past decade, US government scientists said. The average global temperature was 14.4C, making 2011 the 11th hottest on record. That's 0.5C warmer than the 20th century average. In fact, it was hotter than every year last century except 1998. One reason 2011 was milder than recent years was the La Nina cooling of the central Pacific Ocean. La Ninas occur every few years and generally cause global temperatures to drop, but this was THE WARMEST LA NINA YEAR ON RECORD. And 2011 also was THE WARMEST YEAR ON RECORD for Spain and Norway, and the second warmest for the United Kingdom. In the United States, it was only .05C above normal, which made it the 23rd warmest on record. But 17 cities - including Houston, Miami, Trenton and Austin - had their WARMEST YEARS.
This marks the 35th straight year that global temperatures were warmer than normal. NOAA's records for world average temperatures date back to 1880. "It would be premature to make any conclusion that we would see any hiatus of the longer-term warming trend. Global temperatures are continuing to increase." NASA, which calculates global temperatures in a slightly different way, announced essentially the same temperature for the year. But NASA's record-keeping calls it the ninth warmest ever. They expect that in the next few years the world will set yet a new record high temperature. 2010 tied for the hottest on record.
NOAA also released new figures for extreme weather. The agency recalculated the number of billion-dollar weather disasters in the US, bumping the total from 12 to 14. Officials added Tropical Storm Lee, which dumped rain from Maryland to New England in September, and a July hail and wind storm in Colorado to the list. The 14 extreme events SMASH THE OLD RECORD of nine billion-dollar disasters in 2008. "America has endured an UNUSUALLY large number of extreme events, totaling damages of more than $55 billion." For the year, a record 58% of the US had either extreme rainfall or severe drought, about triple what is normal for the country. Seven states - New York, Pennsylvania, Ohio, New Jersey, Massachusetts, Indiana and Kentucky - had their WETTEST YEARS SINCE THOSE RECORDS WERE KEPT beginning in 1895. Texas had its DRIEST YEAR EVER.

**Love feels no burden, thinks nothing of trouble,
attempts what is above its strength,
pleads no excuse of impossibility;
for it thinks all things lawful for itself,
and all things possible.**
Thomas Kempis

LARGEST QUAKES -
This morning -
5.4 SOUTH SANDWICH ISLANDS REGION
5.7 SOUTH SANDWICH ISLANDS REGION
5.0 SIMEULUE, INDONESIA

Yesterday -
1/21/12 -
6.3 OFFSHORE CHIAPAS, MEXICO
5.1 MARIANA ISLANDS REGION

1/20/12 -
5.4 KEPULAUAN SANGIHE, INDONESIA
5.7 FLORES REGION, INDONESIA
5.2 OFF EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN

1/19/12 -
5.0 TONGA REGION 2
5.3 NORTHEASTERN IRAN
5.1 OFF W. COAST OF S. ISLAND, N.Z.
6.0 OFF W. COAST OF S. ISLAND, N.Z.
5.1 DOMINICAN REPUBLIC REGION
5.8 SANTA CRUZ ISLANDS
5.1 SANTA CRUZ ISLANDS

IRAN - More than 200 people were injured on late Thursday afternoon when a moderate earthquake struck near a city in northeastern Iran. A number of buildings in the region collapsed. The 5.5-magnitude earthquake at 4.05 p.m. local time (1235 GMT) was centered about 10 kilometers (6.2 miles) northeast of Nishapur, a city in the province of Razavi Khorasan near the border with Turkmenistan. It struck about 8 kilometers (4.9 miles) deep, making it a very shallow earthquake. Some 268,000 people may have experienced strong shaking. An estimated 2.7 million others may have felt light to moderate shaking. "The population in this region resides in structures that are highly vulnerable to earthquake shaking, though some resistant structures exist. The predominant vulnerable building types are adobe block and unreinforced brick with timber floor construction." Officials said a number of buildings in nearby towns and cities had been damaged or collapsed, causing injuries. About 30 people had to be hospitalized.
On December 20, 2010, at least seven people were killed and hundreds more were injured when a strong 6.5-magnitude earthquake struck 16 kilometers (9.9 miles) from the town of Hosein abad in Kerman Province, located in southeastern Iran. And on August 27, 2010, two young children were killed and more than a dozen others were injured when a moderate 5.9-magnitude earthquake struck 76 kilometers (47 miles) from Damghan, a city in the country's Semnan Province. Before that, in November 2009, a light 4.9-magnitude earthquake struck the southern Iranian port city of Bandar Abbas, injuring more than 700 people. In December 2003, around 31,000 people were killed and more than 30,000 others were injured when a strong 6-magnitude earthquake struck near Bam. It left the area devastated with 85 percent of buildings damaged or destroyed in the city.
Iran quake injured up to 238 - Eight villages and towns were affected by the quake. At least 85 aftershocks have hit the area since then. Some buildings had been damaged and windows shattered in villages near Neyshabur. The quake lasted seven seconds and was THE STRONGEST FELT IN THE REGION IN 10 YEARS.

A 6.2-magnitude earthquake hit the southern Mexican state of Chiapas, shattering windows and sending frightened residents into the streets. The quake struck in the Pacific Ocean about 35 miles (55km) south-west of the city of Mapastepec, near Mexico's border with Guatemala. The tremor was felt hundreds of miles away in El Salvador's capital, San Salvador. There were no early reports of major damage or casualties. The quake struck at 12:27 local time (18:47 GMT) at a depth of 40 miles. Residents reported feeling the impact of the quake all across the region.

NEW ZEALAND - The Hawke's Bay, Wairarapa and Taupo regions on New Zealand's North Island were shaken by earthquakes on Saturday and Sunday while scientists continue to record aftershocks in Canterbury. A magnitude 4.3 earthquake was recorded 30km southeast of Hastings at a depth of 30km at 8.49am (6.49 AEDT). A magnitude 3.6 earthquake struck 30km east of Masterton at a depth of 40km at 11.11pm (9.11pm AEDT) Saturday night and Taupo felt a 2.9 earthquake at 3.07am (1.07am AEDT) this morning. On February 3, 1931, an earthquake measuring 7.8 killed 256 people in Hawke's Bay.
Meanwhile there was no relief for people in Canterbury nearly a year after Christchurch was devastated by a magnitude 6.3 earthquake. GNS Science reported earthquakes measuring 4.2, 4, 3.8, 3.7, 3.5 and 3.2 in Canterbury so far this weekend.

Small, Migrating Quakes Preceded Japan Megaquake - The devastating earthquake that struck Japan in early 2011 was apparently preceded by small, repeating quakes that migrated slowly to where the disaster eventually took place, scientists now find. The magnitude 9.0 Tohoku-Oki temblor in March was the most powerful earthquake known to ever hit Japan and the fifth-most powerful quake ever recorded.
In the month before the Tohoku-Oki "megathrust" quake, researchers found more than a thousand quakes migrated toward its hypocenter, the point where the quake's energy was released, at the rate of 1.2 to 62 miles (2 to 10 kilometers) per day. Their analysis suggests two sequences of faults slowly grinding against each other led to the initial rupture point of the disaster. The second of these sequences may have contributed enough stress to set off the main earthquake.

VOLCANOES -

COSTA RICA - Turrialba Volcano Still Active and Keeping Neighbours On Edge. The fear of an enormous eruption fills the residents near the Turrialba Volcano, located southwest of Cartago and a stone's throw from San José, as the colossus continues to emit ash, sometimes with greater force as it did earlier this week, spewing stones and gases. Experts of the Red Sismológica Nacional and the Observatorio Vulcanológico y Sismológico assure area residents that the volcano has calmed down since and there is no cause for further alarm. However, on Thursday afternoon a new emission of ash from the new gap formed last week, accompanied by a slight seismic activity. Experts said that this is normal for an "active" volcano and the residents of the areas of Turrialba, Alvarado and Jimenex should not be overly alarmed. The Comisión Nacional de Emergencias - national emergency commission is maintaining a "green" alert for the area. (photo)

TROPICAL STORMS -
In the Indian Ocean -
- Tropical cyclone 08s (Funso) was located approximately 565 nm north-northeast of Maputo, Mozambique.
- Tropical cyclone 07s (Ethel) was located approximately 475 nm southeast of Port Louis.

Mozambique and Madagascar - The tropical cyclone in the Mozambique Channel menaced the southeastern coast of Africa with potentially damaging winds and flooding rain this weekend and heading into next week. The compact system is displaying a well-defined, low-level circulation, and has sustained winds of over 115 mph. The showers and thunderstorms from Funso have already triggered localized flooding downpours on both sides of the Channel. Funso is expected to turn away from land and continue to strengthen as it gains some distance from land.
The area has already seen significant adverse tropical weather this month. Tropical Cyclone Chandra made landfall in western Madagascar early in the month. Next, Tropical Depression Dando landed in southern Mozambique near Maputo. Almost 500 people were left homeless in Maputo, the nation's capital, in the aftermath of Dando's flooding rain and damaging winds. Torrential rain triggered by Dando also reached into northeastern South Africa.
Tropical Storm Dando - An estimated five lives were lost, while thousands more have been severely affected by the FIRST TROPICAL STORM SINCE 1984 TO HIT southern Mozambique. Tropical storm Dando hit the region last Sunday leaving behind destruction and flooding. It has since dissipated. In South Africa they are continuing disaster relief to the flood stricken communities in Mpumalanga and Limpopo. As many as two hundred people were rescued from the rising waters. The Kruger National Park was also monitoring water levels after torrential rains this week swept bridges and roads away.

Tropical storm Ethel kills one on Indian Ocean island - The tropical storm killed a teenager in the Mauritian island of Rodrigues in the Indian Ocean, with authorities issuing a category three cyclone alert Friday. The 14-year-old was electrocuted as tropical storm Ethel swept the islands.

HEAVY SNOW / EXTREME COLD -

CANADA - Extreme and wacky weather continues as RECORD LOWS hit parts of Canada. Coast-to-coast, Canadians continue to deal with 'weird and wacky' weather. Freezing rain, severe wind chills and mild temperatures persist across the country, with temperatures dropping in the West and winter storm warnings hitting much of the East. Bitterly cold weather has helped Alberta has set a new record for electricity demand. On Monday around the supper hour, demand peaked at an all-time high of 10,609 megawatts, which beat the previous record set Sunday.
On Wednesday, record lows hit Alberta as arctic air moved east. Edmonton faced a severe wind chill of about -43 C while Calgary expected a chill of -35 C. Bitterly cold air combined with a westerly wind of 15 to 30 km/h will produce wind chill values in the -40 to -49 C range in southern Saskatchewan throughout Wednesday and into Thursday. Winnipeg also got a blast of winter as temperatures were set to hit -36 C. At these extreme values, frostbite on exposed skin can occur in less than 10 minutes.

HEALTH THREATS -

Salmonella sickened 68 in multistate outbreak tied to Mexican restaurant chain - Salmonella Enteritidis infections linked to eating at an unnamed Mexican restaurant chain in 10 states in October and November 2011. Investigators were unable to implicate a specific food but said the epidemiologic curve of cases resembled those of past outbreaks in produce. The report also said ground beef was unlikely to blame because of the handling and cooking processes used. It also said contamination likely occurred before the product reached the restaurants. Twenty-one patients (31%) were hospitalized, but no deaths were reported. The median age was 25, and 54% of patients were women. Texas had 43 cases, Oklahoma 16, and Kansas 2, while seven states had 1 case each: Iowa, Michigan, Missouri, Nebraska, New Mexico, Ohio, and Tennessee.

Wednesday, January 18, 2012

2012-01-18T01:43:00.001-06:00

No updates Thursday and Friday this week.

**Being deeply loved by someone gives you strength,
while loving someone deeply gives you courage.**
Lao Tzu

LARGEST QUAKES -
This morning -
5.3 MOLUCCA SEA

Yesterday -
1/17/12 -
5.6 COQUIMBO, CHILE
5.7 SAMAR, PHILIPPINES
5.1 MINDANAO, PHILIPPINES

Small quake shakes Southern Illinois - Officials with the U.S. Geological Survey confirm a small earthquake rattled an ares of Southern Illinois early Tuesday morning. A magnitude-2.2 tremor was recorded at 5:10 a.m. No damage was reported. Researchers said the quake's epicenter was about four miles east of Troy, Illinois, or around 25 miles east of St. Louis. The quake originated from an estimated depth of 1.8 miles. The quake was believed to have related to a series of faults associated with the New Madrid Fault Zone. The last major earthquake recorded in Southern Illinois was a 5.2 tremor recorded on April 18, 2008 and was centered near Bellmont, Ill. A 2.7 tremor was noted on September 13, 2011 east of Cisne, Ill.

VOLCANOES -

Ash closes Argentina airport days after its re-opening - A cloud of ash caused by a volcano in Chile has closed an airport in neighbouring Argentina just days after it had re-opened. The closure of the airport in Bariloche comes three days after flights had resumed following a seven-month suspension due to ash.

TROPICAL STORMS -
No current tropical storms.

HEAVY SNOW / EXTREME COLD -

U.S. north-west braces for record snowfall - A potentially historic winter storm is forecast to dump heavy snow across the Pacific Northwest today, probably wreaking travel havoc in areas not used to so much of the white stuff. States in the US Pacific Northwest are bracing for ONE OF THE WORST SNOWSTORMS THE REGION HAS SEEN IN A GENERATION. A westerly storm is expected to engulf the state of Washington, bringing up to 2ft (61cm) of snow. Mountainous areas already hit by a weekend storm will be hardest hit, with areas of Oregon also seeing deep snow. Seattle officials fear the storm could bring the heaviest snow at the city's airport since 1985.
Travel could become dangerous or impossible in the region.
The NWS described the upcoming snow storm as a "classic overrunning scenario" seeing an approaching warm front drawing cool air down from British Columbia, across the border in Canada. Most of the Washington lowlands will receive 5-10in (13-25cm) of snow overnight on Tuesday and into today - equivalent to the city's ANNUAL SNOWFALL IN ONE DAY. Other forecasters suggested the snow levels could be even higher.
Weather officials in Canada were keeping their eye on the storm front. Vancouver has already seen snow and ice, with concerns that Wednesday's heavy snow could head over the border and into British Columbia.

INDIA - Cold wave in the North. After keeping its date with the Sun for a few days, Bangalore's weather has swung to extreme cold conditions. Monday saw THE COLDEST MORNING IN THE STATE IN DECADES. The harsh cold weather broke records in many places, with Madikeri registering its LOWEST IN 132 YEARS at 4.8 degrees Celsius, Mysore's coldest day in 120 years at 7.7 degrees Celsius and Bangalore's coldest day of January in the past 19 years with minimum temperature touching 12 degrees Celsius. The outskirts of Bangalore like HAL airport area touched below 10 degrees Celsius and GKVK was freezing at 8.4 degrees Celsius. Maximum temperature across the state remained around 26 degrees Celsius. Bijapur recorded THE LOWEST EVER MINIMUM TEMPERATURE at 8.4 degrees Celsius.
"The severe cold wave from the North and North-East, combined with clear skies, has appreciably brought down the minimum temperatures across the state. Also the shorter day time and longer nights have reduced the radiation on Earth's surface." "The severity of cold also depends on the air-moss strip passing through the co-ordinates of Karnataka. This strip keeps shifting and the area which falls under this strip gets affected by the cold wave. Also the prolonged north-east monsoon has contributed to the cold spell.''

EXTREME HEAT & DROUGHT / WILDFIRES / CLIMATE CHANGE -

China report spells out "grim" climate change risks - More chaotic weather could cut China's grain production. More provinces to face severe water shortages. Extra steps needed to protect cities from rising seas. Global warming threatens China's march to prosperity by cutting crops, shrinking rivers and unleashing more droughts and floods, says the government's latest assessment of climate change, projecting big shifts in how the nation feeds itself.
The warnings are carried in the government's "Second National Assessment Report on Climate Change," which sums up advancing scientific knowledge about the consequences and costs of global warming for China - the world's second biggest economy and the biggest emitter of greenhouse gas pollution. With China's economy likely to rival the United States' in size in coming decades, that will trigger wider consequences. "China faces extremely grim ecological and environmental conditions under the impact of continued global warming and changes to China's regional environment."

HEALTH THREATS -

Tuberculosis which appears to be totally resistant to antibiotic treatment has been reported for the first time by Indian doctors. Concern over drug-resistant strains of TB is growing, with similar 'incurable' TB emerging in Italy and Iran. Doctors in Mumbai said 12 patients had a "totally drug resistant" form of the infection, and three have died. TB is one of the world's biggest killers, second only to HIV among infectious diseases. Normally a patient with TB is given a six to nine month course of antibiotics to eradicate it. However, new strains of the bacterium have developed which are increasingly resistant to the antibiotics most commonly used to treat it. Partially drug-resistant TB can now found in countries across the world, and "multi-drug resistant" strains affect countries such as Russia and China.
The Indian reports will fuel concerns over the ability of doctors to contain the disease in years to come. The new cases represent a "serious threat" to global efforts to control TB. "What we're seeing is probably just the tip of the iceberg. We don't know how widespread this is because so few people are tested for drug resistance." The high prevalence of TB in India, coupled with high population density within its cities, means that the new type of TB could be a bigger problem than previous "totally resistant" strains. "It's going to take a massive effort and change in political will to get to grips with this - not just from the Indian government but from everyone else. This is a global problem, not just an Indian one."

Tuesday, January 17, 2012

2012-01-17T03:49:00.001-06:00

**Where there is no struggle, there is no strength.**
Oprah Winfrey

LARGEST QUAKES -
This morning -
None 5.0 or higher.

Yesterday -
1/16/11 -
5.3 MINAHASA, SULAWESI, INDONESIA
5.0 SULAWESI, INDONESIA
5.0 TONGA
5.2 SOUTH SANDWICH ISLANDS REGION
5.1 SOUTH SANDWICH ISLANDS REGION
5.2 MOLUCCA SEA
5.5 SOUTH SHETLAND ISLANDS

Rare Caterpillar-like Horizontal Earthquake Discovered - Imagine that, as you sit reading this story, your entire city suddenly snaps a foot to the south. That's what happened to the city of Kohat, Pakistan, in 1992. A magnitude-6.0 earthquake moved a 30-square-mile (80-square-kilometer) swath of land one foot (30 centimeters) horizontally in a split second, leveling buildings and killing more than 200 people. The area hadn't experienced many temblors before, making the earthquake an unusual occurrence. Now, 20 years later, geologists have used satellite and seismic data to track down the cause of that rare quake — an equally rare type of fault.
"The pattern we saw was absolutely a dead ringer for a horizontal fault. But here's the problem: How do you get a horizontal earthquake?" Most earthquakes occur at near-vertical faults, such as the strike-slip San Andreas Fault or the thrust fault that caused the 2011 Japan earthquake. The Kohat Plateau earthquake occurred on a horizontal fault — something that scientists have RARELY, IF EVER SEEN BEFORE. "The fault is like the contact layer between a carpet and the floor beneath it — perfectly horizontal." To understand what happened at Kohat, you need to picture a waterbed. If the waterbed is sitting on concrete, it's nearly impossible to push. But if you put the waterbed on a slippery surface — say, an ice rink — it becomes a little easier to move. It may crumple up at one end, and some patches may get a little stuck, but if you push slowly and surely, you can move the waterbed.
Now imagine that waterbed is the Kohat Plateau, a 3,800-square-mile (10,000-square-km) slab of earth that lies just southwest of the Himalayas. As the Eurasian plate pushes the plateau southward, it slides along (or creeps) on its own sort of ice rink, a lubricating layer of salt separating the plateau from the underlying layer of rock. Every once in a while, though, a patch of the plateau sticks against the bedrock below. And while the rest of the plateau slides southward, "the surrounding creep loads up around the one stuck patch, then boom! Earthquake." Because this type of earthquake is so unusual, researchers used interferometric synthetic aperture radar, a type of satellite data, to confirm their suspicions. This type of radar uses microwaves to map a section of the Earth's surface at different times (in this case, the images were taken nearly 20 years apart), and then compares the two maps to very accurately measure seismic deformation and movement in the area.
The Kohat Plateau is creeping south at a speed of about 1 to 2 millimeters per year. Over the course of about 200 years, patches of the plateau can build up enough stress to cause localized earthquakes, like the one in 1992. Over time, the plateau's movement is much like a caterpillar's crawl — a combination of slow gliding and sudden jerks. This type of earthquake will likely become more frequent in the region as the plateau slowly squeezes out its underlying layer of lubricant. Although this layer is likely salt, no one will know for sure until scientists drill below the plateau to take samples. But whatever it turns out to be, residents of the Kohat Plateau should hold on tight.

TROPICAL STORMS -
No current tropical storms.

Tropical Storm Dando Hits Mozambique - Tropical Depression Dando made landfall over the coast of Mozambique in southern Africa Monday. It made landfall at 4:00 a.m. EST (0900 UTC). Dando is the first storm to hit this part of Mozambique since the infamous Tropical Storm Domoina in 1984. Over the next 24 hours, Dando has the potential to drop substantial amounts of rain, with possible local rain totals between 4 to 6 inches (100 to 150 millimeters). Mozambique is bordered by Tanzania to the north, Zimbabwe to the west, the Indian Ocean to the east, and Swaziland and South Africa to the south.

Australia - Cyclone Heidi brings a world of water to Karajini National Park. The mass of water that Cyclone Heidi dumped on the Pilbara has rushed through Karajini National Park and changed the dry gorges overnight to rushing torrents of swirling brown water. Karijini has had around 230mm of rainfall in the past week. Following the recent rain many gorges and falls are flowing which never usually have water in them. Every year the wet reveals the stark contrast between the arid desert country above the gorges, and the cool lush ravines that plunge into the earth. These gorges carry many thousands of litres of water and can be very dangerous. (photos)

EXTREME HEAT & DROUGHT / WILDFIRES / CLIMATE CHANGE -

Record-Breaking Warmth, Precipitation, and Drought Highlight 2011 U.S. Weather - Lubbock, Wichita Falls, and Amarillo were the Texas cities that in 2010 had LESS RAINFALL THAN AT ANY OTHER TIME SINCE RECORDS BEGAN, and much of Texas remains in the throes of an extreme to exceptional drought, the worst categories.

HEALTH THREATS -

La Nina events may make flu pandemics more likely, research suggests. US-based scientists found that the last four pandemics all occurred after La Nina events, which bring cool waters to the surface of the eastern Pacific. Flu-carrying birds may change migratory patterns during La Nina conditions. However, many other La Nina events have not seen novel flu strains spread around the world, they caution. So while the climatic phenomenon may make a pandemic more likely, they say, it is not sufficient on its own - and may not be necessary either.
La Nina is the cold cousin of El Nino - the two collectively making up the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO). "Certainly ENSO affects weather and precipitation and humidity around the world. But the effects are very varied around the world - there's no coherent picture." Nevertheless, the last four pandemics - the Spanish Flu that began in 1918, the Asian Flu of 1957, the Hong Kong Flu of 1958 and the swine flu of 2009 - were all preceded by periods of La Nina conditions. What pandemics have in common is that they all feature novel strains of the virus to which people have not developed immunity. Typically these are created when two existing strains infecting an animal such as a bird or a pig exchange genetic material.
La Nina conditions emerge as a tongue of cold water (purple) in the eastern Pacific The link to La Nina events is not clear. But recent research has shown that some wild birds' patterns of flights and stopovers during migrations, or moulting times, differ between El Nino and La Nina years. "Our best guess is this brings together birds [in La Nina conditions] that don't otherwise mix, and that allows the genetic reassortment to take place." Yet the fact that many other La Nina periods have not been followed by a pandemic indicate that other factors must also be involved.
If the swine flu pandemic of 2009-10 was part of this pattern, the crossing of viral strains must have had something to do with birds as well as pigs. As wild migratory birds will sometimes visit farms and as domestic flocks of ducks or chickens often live alongside pigs, especially in developing countries, this is quite feasible.
The link is far from being firm enough that it could be used as a tool to forecast pandemics. But the monitoring of birds, pigs, people and the genetics of the influenza virus have all been stepped up in response to recent outbreaks of both swine flu and bird flu. And this should in time show whether the theory is correct. "Now we can look at viral gene flow in a number of birds, pigs and people - and we might be able to get something more statistically robust, to get a better sense of the mechanisms."

Monday, January 16, 2012

2012-01-16T03:52:00.002-06:00

Schedule change - Updates to the webpage will be made
Monday - Wednesday this week, no updates on Thursday and Friday.

PHOBOS-GRUNT DESTROYED - According to the Russian space agency and the U.S. Space Command, the Phobos-Grunt spacecraft re-entered Earth's atmosphere on Jan. 15th shortly before 1 p.m. EST. So far, no photographs of the fireball or other debris have been reported. Initial estimates of the final ground track suggested a re-entry in the south Pacific in the broad vicinity of Australia and New Zealand. The spacecraft's last orbit took it over Japan, and the Solomon Islands, and to the east of Australia and New Zealand. Conflicting reports then had the final re-entry point across a great swathe of the Southern Ocean. Certainly, it seems Phobos-Grunt was down and destroyed before it could have passed over South America. "According to information from mission control of the space forces, the fragments of Phobos-Grunt should have fallen into the Pacific Ocean at 1745 GMT." The timing would have put the debris fall more than 1,000km west of Chile.

**Silence is a source of great strength.**
Lao Tzu

LARGEST QUAKES -
This morning -
5.3 SULAWESI, INDONESIA
5.0 SULAWESI, INDONESIA
5.5 SOUTH SHETLAND ISLANDS

Yesterday -
1/15/12 -
5.1 SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC RIDGE
5.0 SOUTH SHETLAND ISLANDS
5.9 SOUTH SHETLAND ISLANDS
6.7 SOUTH SHETLAND ISLANDS
5.0 NEW IRELAND REGION, P.N.G.

Strong quakes rattle remote Antarctica - Two strong earthquakes 40 minutes apart rocked the remote South Orkney Islands in Antarctica on Sunday. The epicenter of the first, a magnitude 6.5 temblor, was at a depth of 10 kilometers (six miles), some 464 kilometers west of Coronation Island. No destructive tsunami was created. The quake occurred at 1340 GMT, and about 40 minutes later the region was struck by an aftershock measured at 6.2. The South Orkney Islands form a remote archipelago in the Southern Ocean to the northeast of the Antarctic Peninsula.

TROPICAL STORMS -
No current tropical storms.

SEVERE RAIN STORMS, FLOODING, LANDSLIDES -

PAKISTAN - Sindh experienced WETTEST EVER MONSOON IN 2011. The climate-based data compiled by World Meteorological Organization revealed that the Sindh province experienced wettest monsoon season on record (247% ABOVE NORMAL) with some of its areas receiving more than 1,100mm from mid-August to early September in 2011. “For the second year in succession, Pakistan experienced severe flooding in 2011. The floods were more localised than in 2010, being largely confined to the southern part of the country."
The local data showed that all of a sudden, torrential downpours in 2011 across Sindh caused devastating floods affecting over 7 million people. The floods killed over 200 people, damaged nearly one million houses and destroyed 4.2 million acres of productive lands. The affected people of the flashing floods in Sindh have been continuously struggling to come to terms with the normal as a majority of them still lack proper shelter even in severe winter season.
Referring to flash floods in other areas the report stated that in terms of loss of life, the most extreme single event occurred in Brazil on 11-12 January, when a devastating flood, caused by rainfall that exceeded 200mm in a few hours, in mountainous terrain about 60km north of Rio de Janeiro caused at least 900 deaths. This was one of the worst natural disasters in Brazil ‘s history. The report stated that global climate in 2011 was heavily influenced by the strong La Nina event that developed in the tropical Pacific in the second half of 2010 and continued until May 2011. This event, which on most measures was one of the strongest of at least the last 60 years, was closely associated with many of the year’s notable regional climate events, including drought in east Africa, the central equatorial Pacific and the southern United States, and flooding in southern Africa, eastern Australia and southern Asia. Monsoon rainfall was also well above average in western border areas of India, with some flooding, but below average in the north-east; June-September rainfall for India as a whole was 2% above average.
“Global tropical cyclone activity was again below average in 2011, although not to the same extent as in 2010, which had the lowest number of tropical cyclones since satellite records began in the late 1960s. As of 22 November there had been 69 tropical cyclones in 2011, compared with the long-term full-year average of 84."
It was an exceptionally quiet season in the Southwest Indian Ocean (west of 90°E), with only 2 cyclones in 2011, and 3 in the full 2010-11 season, the second-lowest number of the last 50 years. Over the full South Indian Ocean there were 7 cyclones, about half the average number.

HEAVY SNOW / EXTREME COLD -

Ultra-Harsh Alaska Winter Prompting Fuel Shortages - Living in Alaska's outer reaches is challenging enough, given the isolation and weather extremes, but at least three remote communities also have experienced weather-related late deliveries of fuel so crucial to their survival during an especially bitter winter. The iced-in town of Nome and the northwest Inupiat Eskimo villages of Noatak and Kobuk faced fuel shortages that illustrate the vulnerability of relying solely on deliveries by sea or air, potentially subjecting communities to the mercy of the elements. The villages, which just received their fuel, are especially vulnerable, unable to afford more additional storage tanks for gasoline and heating oil, which can run as high as $10 a gallon.
Compounding a problem with no easy answers, temperatures dipping as low as minus 60 over the past few weeks means air deliveries are delayed at the same time people are consuming more fuel more quickly. Some people in both villages also use wood-burning stoves for supplemental heat, but diesel is the critical commodity.
Nome missed its pre-winter delivery of fuel by barge when a huge storm swept western Alaska. In a high-profile journey, a Coast Guard icebreaker has cut a path in thick sea ice for a Russian tanker delivering 1.3 million gallons of fuel to the community of 3,500. Without a fuel delivery, Nome would likely run out of certain petroleum products before the end of winter and a barge delivery becomes possible in late spring. Until recently, the situation was much more dire for the smaller communities of Noatak and Kobuk, located farther north above the Arctic Circle, where relentless extreme cold prevented fuel deliveries by plane until this week. Before the new supply of fuel arrived in Noatak, the village store borrowed some heating oil from the village water and sewer plant. But filling the store's two 23,000-gallon tanks has diverted any potential crisis. "We're good for another month and a half."
Residents in Kobuk also were highly relieved by an air shipment of heating oil that arrived Wednesday in the village of 150 people about 175 miles to the east. It's been too cold for people to use their snowmobiles much, so gasoline isn't as much of a concern. Running low on the diesel used to warm homes was another matter.
In Noatak, residents once had fuel shipped by barge on the Noatak River, but that has long been impossible since the river shifted and became shallow there. Two years ago, residents began tapping into another source of fuel, thanks to the Red Dog zinc mine 40 miles to the northeast. The mine in 2009 began a program to sell gasoline and diesel to Noatak and another close neighbor, the village of Kivalina. The latest Red Dog fuel day for Noatak took place on the day the village store ran out of diesel. So villagers formed a convoy of about 30 snowmobiles and freight sleds, and headed out in weather marked by temperatures of 47 below and, for the first 10 miles, dense fog.

Sunday, January 15, 2012

2012-01-14T23:48:00.001-06:00

I am expecting things to finally stablize this week so that the page updates get back on track. This week there will be no updates on Tuesday and Wednesday, with the best of intentions to post on Thursday and Friday.

Failed probe likely to return late today - The failed Russian Mars probe, Phobos-Grunt, continued its descent to Earth on Saturday, losing hundreds of metres in height every hour. By 23:00 Saturday (GMT), the 13-tonne spacecraft was circling the planet at a mean altitude of 147km. It is likely to impact the thicker parts of the atmosphere and burn up sometime late today, according to orbital tracking experts.
The Russian space agency says little of the probe will survive to the surface. It calculates no more than 200kg in maybe 20-30 fragments. Precisely where on the Earth's surface - and when - this material could impact is impossible to say. There are huge uncertainties in forecasting the final moments of a re-entry. "The major uncertainty for prediction is the atmospheric density the spacecraft encounters in orbit, but it's also due to the orientation of the vehicle as it comes in. It can very quickly tumble and if pieces break off - that all changes the trajectory and where debris might impact." (map)

**Tears shed for self are tears of weakness,
but tears shed for others are a sign of strength.**
Billy Graham

LARGEST QUAKES -
This morning -
None 5.0 or higher.

Yesterday -
1/14/12 -
5.7 BABUYAN ISL REGION, PHILIPPINES
5.3 SOUTH SANDWICH ISLANDS REGION
5.0 NEAR EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
5.0 NEW BRITAIN REGION, P.N.G.
5.0 OFF EAST COAST OF KAMCHATKA
5.2 TONGA REGION

1/13/12 -
5.2 SIMEULUE, INDONESIA
5.0 OFF W COAST OF NORTHERN SUMATRA
5.2 SOUTH OF KERMADEC ISLANDS
5.1 SOUTH OF KERMADEC ISLANDS
5.2 SOUTH SANDWICH ISLANDS REGION
5.0 NEW BRITAIN REGION, P.N.G.

1/12/12 -
5.3 SOUTH OF AFRICA
5.3 SOUTH OF AFRICA
5.3 TONGA
5.0 TONGA REGION
5.3 TONGA REGION
5.0 FOX ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN ISLANDS
5.0 NEAR EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
5.4 NEAR EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
5.7 NEAR EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
5.1 MINDANAO, PHILIPPINES

1/11/12 -
5.2 BANDA SEA
5.2 SOUTHEAST CENTRAL PACIFIC OCEAN
5.0 CENTRAL PERU
5.0 NORTHERN IRAN

1/10/12 -
7.2 OFF W COAST OF NORTHERN SUMATRA
5.0 NEAR COAST OF ECUADOR
5.3 TONGA REGION
5.2 VANUATU REGION

VOLCANOES -

COSTA RICA - "Yellow" Alert For Turrialba Volcano Eruption. The emanation of a gray cloud, possibly containing ash, at the Turrialba Volcano was confirmed Thursday afternoon by the Observatorio Vulcanológico y Sismológico de CostaRica, resulting in the closure of the park. The eruption of smoke was confirmed at 3pm Thursday, preceded by rumblings that were detected by locals. Almost immediately the Comisión Nacional de Emergencias - national Emergency Commission - issued a "yellow" alert for the area as a preventive measure. The alert takes effect in the areas of Turrialba, Jiménez and Alvarado. Experts were meeting Friday to discuss the risk and review technical reports to determine possible preventive measures.

Volcanic eruptions subsiding off Canary Island after three months - Undersea volcanic eruptions off the Spanish Canary Island of El Hierro appear to be subsiding, three months after they began, an expert said Tuesday. There has only been minimal seismic activity for several weeks.

TROPICAL STORMS -
No current tropical storms.

Tropical Cyclone 06S (Heidi) - Heidi made landfall in Western Australia's Pilbara region about 4:30 a.m. on January 12 as a Category 2 cyclone, bringing wind gusts up to 131 kilometers/hour (81 miles/hour) and dumping 128 mm of rain on Port Headland, a coastal town in the path of the storm. A few hours later, local papers reported widespread flooding and power outages to at least 2,000 homes in that area. Heidi was downgraded to a Category 1 cyclone about 9:30 a.m. as it moved south-southwest away from the coast. At this time, Heidi had maintained her well-rounded shape and even appeared to hint at an eye in the center after moving inland, suggesting that the storm still was fairly strong and still a significant rain-maker. By early morning of January 13, Tropical Cyclone Heidi had become a tropical low, but still packed significant wind and heavy rain, bringing the potential for flash flooding as it traveled south. ( image)

HEAVY SNOW / EXTREME COLD -

UNITED KINGDOM - UK anti-cyclone replaces storms, brings bitter cold. An intense high pressure moved slap-bang over the British Isles on the 12th. The anti-cyclone moved away the intense storms experienced after Christmas and New Year and replaces conditions with bitter cold nights and striking sunsets. The weather phenomenon has been described as acting like a "boulder in the scree" by BBC weather experts. Storms continue to blow around the west coast of Ireland and north of the Scottish mainland. The central mainland area in Europe has recently suffered several metres of snowfall, Austria has been particularly badly affected. The atmospheric conditions which engulfed the British Isles on Thursday night imposed clear blue skies, bitterly cold starry nights and hardly any wind. Night frosts, the first of the winter season, greeted most areas in Britain with thick fog lingering in the countrysides. There was an 80% probability of severe cold weather from midnight on Saturday and 0900 on Tuesday in parts of England. The combination of low sun, blue skies and red evening skies is producing some stunning sunsets.
The settled conditions replace weeks of rain, high winds and exceptionally mild temperatures. The average temperature for London in January is 6c (43f) by day and around 4c (39f) in central Scotland. But even night time lows had hovered well above these levels with some areas in southern England recording 14c (57f) on New Years Eve, warmer than the north African state of Morocco.

RECORD-BREAKING SNOWFALLl in Valdez, Alaska and it's not stopping. Media coverage of the snowfall in the Prince William Sound city describes it as "Valdez Snowmageddon". As of Jan. 5th - 246.6’’ of snow had fallen in Valdez. That’s over 20 feet. The snowstorms continued. "Valdez usually has 151.8 inches of snow by Jan. 12. As of 2 p.m. Thursday, Valdez had seen a total of nearly 321.8 inches this season. That's more than 14 feet above normal." The old timers here are all puzzled by how EARLY these dumps (big short- spanned torrents of snow) are. It usually hits in February.
"The record-breaking winter pushed the local elementary and high school past their legal roof snow-load limits of 90 pounds per square foot." On Jan. 13, the schools were forced to close "for the first time in recent memory" due to fears of roofs collapsing. In terms of what's in store weather-wise for Valdez residents in the next few days, "We are still having a little snow and rain, but it's gonna get cold (as the jet[stream dips south) and everything is gonna freeze solid. Then single digits for a few days." More snow was in store for this weekend.

HEALTH THREATS -

Hong Kong lowers its avian flu alert level - Hong Kong has moved its avian flu warning level back to "alert" after it raised it to "serious" on Dec 20 upon detection of H5N1 in a chicken at a live bird market and in two wild birds. The virus in the bird samples has not mutated compared with other samples collected in the region. "There is no significant change in terms of genetic shifting."

Tuesday, January 10, 2012

2012-01-10T04:46:00.002-06:00

Japan tsunami pushes 2011 into a RECORD FOR INSURANCE LOSSES - The devastating earthquakes in Japan and New Zealand made 2011 the costliest year yet for the insurance industry in terms of natural disaster losses. Insured losses last year totaled $105 billion - exceeding the previous record of $101 billion set in 2005, when losses were swollen by claims from Hurricane Katrina in New Orleans. The total economic cost last year from natural disasters - including uninsured losses - totaled about $380 billion. That was far above the 2005 record of $220 billion.
Japan's earthquake and tsunami in March caused overall losses of $210 billion and insured losses of between $35 billion and $40 billion. That didn't include the consequences of the subsequent meltdowns at the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear plant, which resulted in the evacuation of a wide swath of land. The second most costly disaster for insurers, at $13 billion, was the February quake that devastated much of the New Zealand city of Christchurch. Overall losses came to $16 billion.
Last year's sequence of natural disasters was VERY RARE, and 2011 brought CATASTROPHES EXPECTED ONLY ONCE EVERY 1,000 YEARS OR MORE. Normally, weather-related events are the chief cause of losses. "Even if it seems hard to believe given recent events, the probability of earthquakes has not increased. However, these severe earthquakes are timely reminders that the decisions on where to build towns need careful and serious consideration of these risks, especially where certain buildings are concerned, above all nuclear power plants." Building codes in earthquake-prone regions need to be made even stricter.
Last year's third-costliest disaster for insurers was Thailand's worst flooding in half a century, which began in late July and continued for months. Insured losses came to $10 billion, and total overall losses were estimated at $40 billion, making it Thailand's costliest-ever natural disaster. Severe storms and tornadoes in the United States in late April cost insurers $7.3 billion and led to overall damage worth $15 billion. Hurricane Irene, which hit the Caribbean and U.S. in late August, caused insured losses of $7 billion and total losses of $15 billion. Still, losses from North Atlantic hurricanes were "moderate" in 2011, with only three major named storms making landfall in the United States.

**The so-called science of poll-taking is not a science at all...
People are unpredictable by nature, and although you can
take a nation's pulse, you can't be sure that the nation
hasn't just run up a flight of stairs.**
E.B. White

LARGEST QUAKES -
This morning -
5.0 POTOSI, BOLIVIA
5.2 VANUATU REGION

Yesterday -
1/9/12 -
5.2 NEAR N COAST OF PAPUA, INDONESIA
5.1 VALPARAISO, CHILE
5.3 SOUTHERN IRAN
6.6 SANTA CRUZ ISLANDS
5.4 TONGA REGION
5.0 KERMADEC ISLANDS REGION

VOLCANOES -

Health fears for Indonesia volcano refugees - The health of hundreds of people who fled the slopes of Mount Lewotolok in East Nusa Tenggara province in Indonesia last week as a result of increased volcanic activity is becoming a major cause of concern. Over 500 people in Lembata district left their homes in 10 villages after the Vulcanology and Geological Disaster Mitigation Center raised Mount Lewotolok’s alert status on January 2.

TROPICAL STORMS -
No current tropical storms.

India's mango season delayed due to erratic climate and cyclone Thane. - Cyclone Thane and indifferent weather have affected flowering and could negatively impact the crop. Mango is cultivated in frost-free tropical and sub-tropical climates. More than a third of the world's mangoes is produced in India and Krishnagiri district is a major producer of some of the most popular varieties. The fruit is harvested in the middle of February. In March/April, it is usually available in market. The unseasonal weather has disrupted the flowering which happens mid-December. This season the flowering was minimal. Consequently, there will be a delay in the arrival of the fruit in markets.

Tropical storm Chanda struck Madagascar at about 18:00 GMT on 8 January. - Chanda brought 1-minute maximum sustained winds to the region of around 64 km/h (40 mph). Wind gusts in the area may have beenconsiderably higher. (map)

SEVERE RAIN STORMS, FLOODING, LANDSLIDES -

Turkish Food Prices Rise as Cyclone Ruins Fields - A cyclone destroyed about 50 hectares of land in vegetable cultivation in southern Turkey, causing food prices to rise. Greenhouses were also destroyed in Kumluca region, in the southern province of Antalya, by the cyclone. Some banana fields were damaged in Mersin province by strong winds.

BRAZIL - A landslide killed at least eight people in Rio de Janeiro state today and 14 others may be buried in the rubble. Six adults and two children perished and 14 were still missing after nine house collapsed in the northern Sapucaia municipality. A family of five who took refuge in a car may also have died after the vehicle was buried by the mud. The landslide occurred "after 12 hours of nonstop rain".
The road leading to the area is completely cut off, which means rescue teams can reach the area only by helicopter. "The mayor and an entire team went to the scene but there are huge communications and transport problems, no telephone. Late yesterday, authorities began evacuating 900 people in Rio de Janeiro state's northern town of Outeiro after a local dike gave way. The town was expected to be flooded later today.
The evacuees were being sheltered in schools, tents or by relatives. The incident occurred in the same area where on Thursday 4000 people were evacuated after floodwaters fed by torrential rains caused another dike to burst. A year ago, floods and landslides left more than 1300 people dead or unaccounted for in the mountainous region of Rio de Janeiro state.

SMOG -

CHINA - More than 150 flights to and from Beijing have been cancelled or delayed as a thick cloud of acrid smog shrouded the city, with US figures saying THE POLLUTION WAS SO BAD IT WAS OFF THE SCALE. The national meteorological centre said the Chinese capital had been hit by thick fog that reduced visibility to as little as 200 metres in some parts of the city, while official data judged air quality to be "good".
But the US embassy, which has its own pollution measuring system, said on its Twitter feed that the concentration of the smallest, most dangerous particles in the air was "beyond index" for most of the morning.
The US system measures particles in the air of 2.5 micrometers or less, known as PM2.5, considered the most dangerous for people's health. Today's reading on its air quality index, which rates anything over 150 as unhealthy, over 200 as very unhealthy and over 300 as hazardous, breached the upper limit of 500, at which it stops giving figures. Meanwhile, the Beijing Environmental Bureau, which currently bases its air quality information on particles of 10 micrometres or larger, known as PM10, said the air quality in the capital was "good". The frequent discrepancy between US embassy readings and official data on pollution in Beijing has caused huge public anger as more and more residents worry about their health.

HEALTH THREATS -

RECALLS & ALERTS:
-Novartis Consumer Health, Inc. announced that it is voluntarily recalling all lots of select bottle packaging configurations of Bufferin, Excedrin, NoDoz, and Gas-X. The recall isn't very specific but could be anything from the wrong pills in the wrong bottles, broken tablets, leaky gelcaps, or a combination of all of them. It can be dangerous because the products could contaminate each other, expecially a leaky gelcap. The extent of the recall shows a quality control issue at the plant where the drugs were manufactured.

Monday, January 9, 2012

2012-01-09T02:57:00.002-06:00

Something is up with the jet stream - changes that have meteorologists scratching their heads in wonder. 4 of the last 6 winters have seen record AO and NAO indices. Weather Underground has a fascinating post explaining what's going on, but the whys are still very much up in the air: "The cause of this warm first half of winter is THE MOST EXTREME CONFIGURATION OF THE JET STREAM EVER RECORDED, as measured by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The Arctic Oscillation (AO), and its close cousin, the North Atlantic Oscillation (which can be thought of as the North Atlantic's portion of the larger-scale AO), are climate patterns in the Northern Hemisphere defined by fluctuations in the difference of sea-level pressure in the North Atlantic between the Icelandic Low and the Azores High. The AO and NAO have significant impacts on winter weather in North America and Europe - -the AO and NAO affect the path, intensity, and shape of the jet stream, influencing where storms track and how strong these storms become. During December 2011, the NAO index was +2.52, which was the most extreme difference in pressure between Iceland and the Azores ever observed in December (records of the NAO go back to 1865.)" "The December Arctic Oscillation (AO) index has fluctuated wildly over the past six years, with THE TWO MOST EXTREME POSITIVE AND TWO MOST EXTREME NEGATIVE VALUES ON RECORD.
The "AO" has been strongly positive for much of the last 3 months, but is predicted to drop off to, or even below, zero after January 16 or so. Positive AO's correlate with strong westerly winds and bitter air remaining dammed over northern Canada; a negative AO corresponds with bitter cold (and frequent snows). Until and unless the AO and NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) drop well below zero, and stay there, it may be tough to get sustained cold and snowy weather into the Lower 48 States. There's precious little snow anywhere over the Lower 48 right now.
"Forecast maps don't look anything like any January I can ever remember," says a Minnesota meteorologist. The GFS forecast valid midday January 23 looks more like early April, the pattern over North America overwhelmed by UNUSUALLY STRONG "zonal" winds from the Pacific; bitter air remaining bottled up over far northern Canada. In Minnesota it's going to cool off later this week, but another warming trend is likely by the 4th week of January. "I've run out of superlatives. I'm simply dazed and amazed." There is no snow and it looks like late March instead of January. "At the rate we're going this may wind up being the most remarkable winter since 2001-2002, when only 2 subzero nights were reported in the metro area." Temperatures today and Tuesday should climb into the 40s, with 50s possible south/west of the Minnesota River Valley - typical for late March or early April. It just keeps getting stranger and stranger. Every computer run looks less and less impressive in terms of cold air.
Temperature Departure From Normal In The Twin Cities:
January 2012: +11.9 F.
December 2011: +8.1 F.
November 2011: +5.5 F.
October 2011: +6.4 F.
Overview of the wild weather Minnesota endured last year: record dew point (82), an urban tornado, and going from the 4th greatest winter snowfall (86.6") to a drought in the span of about 5 months. ATMOSPHERIC INSANITY. Weather memories tend to fade quickly. But two events make 2011 stand out: the May tornado that sliced through the heart of the metro area, becoming the first killer tornado to hit Minneapolis in nearly 30 years, and the lightning-sparked, drought-driven September Pagami Creek forest fire, the state's largest fire in 93 years. The year brought a seesaw of extremes - record snow last winter, record rains in June and record drought to close the year. The first half of the year, with below-normal temperatures and above-normal precipitation, was followed by six months of the opposite. (graphs & charts)

**Physical strength can never permanently withstand
the impact of spiritual force.**
Franklin D. Roosevelt

LARGEST QUAKES -
This morning -
6.6 SANTA CRUZ ISLANDS
5.4 TONGA REGION
5.0 KERMADEC ISLANDS REGION

Yesterday -
1/8/12 -
5.2 EASTERN HONSHU, JAPAN
5.3 VANUATU
5.2 NORTHERN XINJIANG, CHINA
5.4 FIJI REGION

A 5.3-magnitude quake in the Dominican Republic early Thursday triggered rockslides and damaged several buildings, but no
casualties were reported.

NEW ZEALAND - Earthquake experts insist they are not hiding sensitive information that might cause panic as anxious Christchurch residents worry about what may lie ahead. The long sequence of devastating earthquakes stretching back to September 2010 was not unexpected. Although the quakes are likely to continue - possibly for decades - they appear to be moving offshore, and another serious quake of magnitude 7 or more is seen as very unlikely.
Since the latest spate of quakes that began on December 23, rumours have suggested that scientists were expecting another big quake but were keeping it under wraps. "There are a lot of things we don't know, but we are bringing information forward as soon as we do have something that is coherent to say". The recent spate of quakes did tend to increase the odds of more quakes, but with the latest occurring off Christchurch's coast, there was less potential for damage. "I think we can guarantee there will still be (magnitude) 5s in the coming months. Hopefully they are going to continue to be offshore. Christchurch's city has had a lot of earthquake activity and a lot of stress must be released in the ... area, but for Canterbury there may well be an ongoing sequence over a period of a few decades." The risk of a quake of magnitude 7 or more - such as in September 2010 - is "not zero, but it's low".
Evidence pointed to the quakes since September 2010 being "VERY RARE" in a historical context. "The sequence is now catching up to the number of quakes expected in the time frame." While quakes offshore created a small risk of a tsunami, experts stressed that only very large quakes created a serious risk. A magnitude 7 quake could produce a tidal wave of up up to 2m, but that was still not enough to worry about. Big quakes much further afield, such as in South America, are more of a concern.

VOLCANOES -

7 Indonesian Volcanoes on Alert - The National Disaster Mitigation Agency has warned that seven volcanoes located across the archipelago are on alert statuses. The agency said it has prepared measures for the worst-case scenarios and officials met on Saturday to discuss the measures. The seven volcanoes are Papandayan Mountain in West Java, Karangetang and Lokon in North Sulawesi, Ijen in East Java, Gamalama in North Maluku, Anak Krakatau in Lampung and Lewotolo in East Nusa Tenggara. The agency was closely monitoring each volcano. Mitigation measures varied in each region because of the different characteristics of the volcanos and the territories. In general, the agency has planned evacuation routes, sites for refugees, logistics supplies, machinery and volunteer mapping. “The plan is standardized, but we keep renewing it to adjust to current conditions. For Papandayan, we have a done dry-run three times so the people could get used to the measures." On Friday, Lokon Mountain erupted, spewing volcanic ash up to 1,500 meters high, but it had calmed down by Saturday morning and people living near the mountain were not evacuated. In North Maluku, some 296 people remain in refugee shelters in Dufa-Dufa following Mount Gamalama’s last eruption in early December.
About 500 people residing near Mount Lewotolok, Lembata district, abandoned their homes on Thursday amid the volcano’s mounting activity. “Most of them left for the nearest city, Lewoleba. All related government officials will soon hold a coordination meeting to deal with the latest situation." Although the government had not yet announced an evacuation plan, the local people had chosen to leave due to the increasing activity of Mount Lewotolok over the past few days. “Black smoke columns are coming out of the mountain’s crater, the air is filled with the smell of sulfur while rumbling sounds are heard around the mountain." 10 villages were likely to be affected if the volcano erupted. The Volcanology and Geological Disaster Mitigation Center (PVMBG) had since Jan. 2 raised Mount Lewotolok’s status to alert level after detecting an increase in its activity.

Renewed Activity at El Hierro in the Canary Islands - El Hierro is showing renewed vigor. New video from the webcams show that the sea surface is steaming and reports from people at El Hierro say that new pyroclastic chunks have been spotted as well. Diario El Hierro was reporting an increase in seismic tremor at the volcano over 24 hours on Friday. You never know if the activity might continue long enough to produce a subaerial eruption (such as the activity at Jebel Zubair in the Red Sea), but right now, we’re still likely a long way from that. (photos)

TROPICAL STORMS -
In the Indian Ocean -
Tropical cyclone 05s (Chanda) was located approximately 200 nm west-southwest of Antananarivo, Madagascar.

HEALTH THREATS -

New study puts cost of US foodborne illness at $77 billion.

Sunday, January 8, 2012

2012-01-07T23:26:00.003-06:00

My optimism was misplaced and I'm sorry that I couldn't get
updates posted last week. I am trying to work out a way to
handle the other pressing matters and still have time to update.
Monday and Tuesday will be ok, the rest of this week I'm not sure.

Stranded Mars probe could fall to Earth in 7 days - Fragments of Russia's stranded Mars probe Phobos-Grunt could fall to Earth on Sunday, January 15, the spokesman of Russia's military space forces told Russian news agencies on Wednesday. "As of Wednesday morning, the fragments of Phobos-Grunt are expected to fall January 15, 2012. The final date could change due to external factors." The Russian space agency (Roscosmos) said on Friday that perhaps 20-30 pieces weighing no more than 200kg in total might survive the destructive dive and impact the surface somewhere.
In an embarrassing setback, the $165-million probe designed to travel to the Mars moon of Phobos and bring back soil samples, blasted off on November 9 but failed to leave the Earth's orbit. The military space forces' monitoring centre had earlier predicted in November that the probe, which is gradually descending and slowing down, would fall to Earth in January or February. The probe is now circling at an altitude of between 184 kilometres (114 miles) and 224 kilometres (139 miles) above Earth. The Russian space agency said in December that it expected the 13.5-tonne probe to fall to Earth between January 6 and 19, but that it would only be possible to predict the exact time and place a few days in advance. 20 to 30 fragments weighing a total of no more than 200 kilograms were expected to fall to Earth, with the spacecraft's highly toxic fuel burning up on entering the Earth's atmosphere. Russia has experienced a series of serious space failures in the past year. In the latest setback, a fragment of a Russian communications satellite crashed into a Siberian village in December after it failed to reach orbit due to the failure of its Soyuz rocket. ( Detailed info - December 30 estimates showed it will re-enter on January 15, 2012, around 23:07:08 Moscow Decree Time, while flying over the Northern Pacific between Russia and North America.)

**Where is the human who has the strength to be true,
and to show himself as he is?**
Johann Wolfgang von Goethe

LARGEST QUAKES -
This morning -
5.4 FIJI REGION

Yesterday -
1/7/12 -
5.3 HALMAHERA, INDONESIA
5.2 PAPUA, INDONESIA
5.0 FLORES REGION, INDONESIA
5.0 OFF EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
5.1 SOUTH OF FIJI ISLANDS
5.6 KERMADEC ISLANDS REGION
5.6 EASTERN NEW GUINEA REG., P.N.G.
5.2 NEW BRITAIN REGION, P.N.G.

1/6/12 -
5.0 SOUTHERN ALASKA
5.5 CENTRAL EAST PACIFIC RISE
5.0 OFF E. COAST OF S. ISLAND, N.Z.
5.1 OFF E. COAST OF N. ISLAND, N.Z.
5.0 OFF COAST OF BIO-BIO, CHILE
5.0 NEW IRELAND REGION, P.N.G.
5.1 SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC RIDGE

1/5/12 -
5.1 SOUTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA
5.1 PACIFIC-ANTARCTIC RIDGE
5.2 NEAR EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
5.4 DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
5.4 TONGA
5.2 OFF COAST OF AISEN, CHILE

1/4/12 -
5.2 KEPULAUAN BARAT DAYA, INDONESIA
5.0 SOUTH OF SUMBA, INDONESIA
5.0 SANTA CRUZ ISLANDS
5.2 SANTA CRUZ ISLANDS
5.2 VANUATU
5.0 RYUKYU ISLANDS, JAPAN

1/3/12 -
5.1 GUAM REGION
5.0 KURIL ISLANDS

PHILIPPINES - State seismologists warned Mindanao residents of possible aftershocks from a magnitude-5.6 quake in Indonesia, which was felt in the Davao area Saturday afternoon.

Quake in Dominican Republic Spurs Fatal Heart Attack - The quake shook several regions of the Dominican Republic at 5:36 am Thursday at a depth of 10 kilometers (6 miles) and had its epicenter at 50 kilometers (31 miles) from Santo Domingo.

VOLCANOES -

The tallest active volcano in Europe, Mount Etna, has began erupting for the first time in 2012. The snow-covered peak is in Sicily, Italy and stands at 10801 feet tall. Often, eruptions can cause issues for air travel at the Catania airport and nearby.Mount Etna has released a column of ash up to 5000 metres (over 16000 feet) above sea level. Lava was also seen flowing from a new crater.

FREAK WAVES / ABNORMAL TIDES -

A warning has been issued to New Zealand's coastal centres that life in these places is going to be more troublesome because of a confirmed increase in extreme weather events, and other climate change impacts.

TROPICAL STORMS -

In the INDIAN OCEAN -
Tropical cyclone 05s was located approximately 330 nm west of Antananarivo, Madagascar. Landfall expected in Madagascar.

INDIA - Cyclone Thane, which hit the Puducherry and Cuddalore districts of Tamil Nadu last week, has left several hotels and resorts temporarily non-operational. The cyclone left behind a fractured infrastructure in the south.

SEVERE RAIN STORMS, FLOODING, LANDSLIDES -

PHILIPPINES - The number of dead from a landslide caused by heavy rains in a remote gold-mining community in the southern Philippines hit 28 but rescuers said they expected the toll to rise with about 35 people unaccounted for. Heavy equipment has arrived at the scene but there was continued confusion over exactly how many people might have been buried alive in Pantukan town before dawn on Thursday. The landslide buried small mining tunnels and shanties built in the gold-rush area.
"We don't really know (how many are missing) because residents there come and go. Even the local leader doesn't know who comes and goes in the area. This is an all-too-familiar story: people come here as transients without any documents, without prior notice to local officials. They come here to make a living. They are forewarned about landslides, but just like in the past, they fail to be convinced." The mountainous region has drawn gold prospectors from surrounding regions for years despite frequent, deadly landslides. Their largely unregulated tunnelling has made the mountainside unstable, government experts say, and heavy rains since last month had saturated the earth on top, triggering the deadly earthfall.

HEAVY SNOW / EXTREME COLD -

Austria hit by heavy snow - Heavier than usual snowfall and high winds have caused chaos on roads and railways in many areas of Austria. Part of a major railway route has been shut down in the west of the country, and some villages and tourist resorts have been cut off. Up to 1.2 metres (4ft) of fresh snow has been recorded in some areas since Thursday. The authorities say the probability of avalanches is extremely high and widespread. Nearly 2,000 homes have been without power. On Friday, around 15,000 tourists and locals were snowed in at ski resorts on the Arlberg mountain. The roads there are now open again, but others in the region remain shut. More heavy snow is predicted over the next few days.
Cyclone "Andrea" rages in western Austria - The effects of cyclone "Andrea" were felt around Austria Thursday. Parts of the country have been left without power, fallen trees cover the streets and more than 100 call outs for the fire brigade have been recorded by the emergency services.
The regions of Vorarlberg and Tyrol were particularly badly affected.
Western Austria in general and Bregenzerwald in Vorarlberg were hard hit by the low pressure front on Thursday afternoon. The majority of the incidents that took place were a result of fallen branches and trees on roads. By the evening both Walgau and Montafon began to suffer with railway lines also being badly affected. A fire also broke out in Alberschwende in Bregenzerwald as a result of a lightning strike, with parts of a metal garage blowing away altogether in Feldkirch, blocking a street. The storm continued to cause havoc in Dornbirn, Austria, where several cable cars came to a standstill in the strong winds. Wind speeds of 108 kilometres per hour (km/h) were measured, with similarly high speeds of 95km/h recorded in Feldkirch.

SWEDEN - A new low pressure area with strong winds and precipitation was on the way toward Sweden. It passed over central Sweden on Wednesday and bringing rain and snow over most of the country, as well as gale force winds in the south and along the coast.
"It is a very strong low pressure area, which can be best described as an 'ATMOSPHERIC BOMB' as the pressure drops so suddenly. We're talking of gale force winds up to 35-40 metres per second."
Many are still without power after storm "Dagmar" which hit on Dec. 26. Sweden has not had winds as strong as those recorded during recent weeks for years. "Some of our stations measured THE STRONGEST WINDS IN AT LEAST 15 YEARS." Chaos was reportedly left in its wake, with rail traffic at a standstill, hundreds of thousands of households without power and fallen trees blocking many roads. In some areas of Jämtland county, in central Sweden, Dagmar reached HURRICANE STRENGTH. Between Christmas and New Year the weather calmed down slightly in the wake of storm Dagmar but by then northern parts of the country had suffered extensive forest damage caused by the strong winds. The National Board of Forestry (Skogsstyrelsen) has been taking stock of damages done to Swedish woods over the Christmas period and while work continues it has to do so with more bad weather en route for Sweden. The Swedish National Railway is also still working at establishing the extent of the damages done to its network in the aftermath of the storms.

Tuesday, January 3, 2012

2012-01-03T03:04:00.003-06:00

I will not get a chance to update on Wednesday this week,
but I am optimistic that I'll be to do it on Thursday.

Thousands of dead herring wash up on a beach in Norway - it must be the end of the world, right? For those of the apocalyptic bent, the sudden appearance of 20 tons of dead fish in Kvaenes, in the northerly district of Nordreisa, after hundreds of blackbirds dropped dead in Arkansas, is a sign that the Mayans and Hollywood are right and 2012 IS the year we all go to hell.
Scientists are looking for a more sciencey reason. They want to conduct tests on the fish to see if they were driven to their death by a predator or simply swept ashore by a storm. Locals, although clearly puzzled by the appearance of the herring, are more worried about the smell: unless someone cleans up the mess quick, Nordreisa will start to reek of the underworld. (photo)

**Strength and growth come only
through continuous effort and struggle.**
Napoleon Hill

LARGEST QUAKES -
This morning -
None 5.0 or higher.

Yesterday -
1/2/12 -
5.1 NEAR EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
5.0 NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC RIDGE

NEW ZEALAND - In the 10 months after the 6.3 magnitude quake struck Christchurch in February, killing 181, there have been 5025 earthquakes and aftershocks of varying magnitudes.

RUSSIA - The 6.7 earthquake damaged dozens of buildings in a city in southwestern Siberia, but no injuries or deaths have been reported. The epicenter of the 6.7 magnitude quake was about 100 kilometres (60 miles) east of Kyzyl, capital of the Russian republic of Tuva, which borders Mongolia. The municipal services in Kyzyl said Wednesday that 31 multistory apartment buildings, a school and a plant that provides hot water and heat suffered cracks and other damage. The plant was still operating. The Emergencies Ministry said 3,500 people were provided temporary shelter. After the quake struck last Tuesday evening, mines in the coal-mining region of Kemerovo were evacuated as a precaution, but work resumed Wednesday afternoon.

VOLCANOES -

JAPAN - Sakurajima hits 996-eruption high. Mount Sakurajima, an active volcano in Kagoshima Prefecture, explosively erupted 996 times in 2011, THE MOST SINCE RECORD-KEEPING BEGAN IN 1955.

TROPICAL STORMS -
In the Indian Ocean -
Tropical cyclone 04s (Benilde) was located approximately 810 nm south of Diego Garcia.

INDIA - Cyclone makes city sweat. The otherwise dipping minimum temperature has shot drastically over the last two days with the city of Hyderabad recording 21 degrees Celsius. This season's lowest temperature has been 11.8 degrees. The weathermen attributed the six degree jump from the normal weather during this period to the cyclone. Cyclone Thane hit the Tamil Nadu coast on Friday. The normal temperature during this time hovers around 15 degrees. "The temperature has gone up because of the cyclone. This will remain more or less the same for a couple of days." It is UNUSUAL to get rains during January.
NASA Image of the Day: January 2 - Tropical Cyclone Thane. By December 28, Thane had strengthened into a cyclone and was headed toward southern India. On December 28, Thane was located roughly 270 nautical miles (500 kilometers) southeast of Chennai. The storm had maximum sustained winds of 65 knots (120 kilometers per hour) with gusts up to 80 knots (150 kilometers per hour). The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA's Terra satellite captured a natural-color image on December 28. Thane lacked a distinct eye but still sported the spiral shape characteristic of strong storms. After this image was captured, Tropical Storm Thane strengthened to a Very Severe Cyclonic Storm and peaked on December 29 with 1-minute sustained wind speeds measured at 150 kilometers per hour (90 miles per hour). It weakened slightly before making landfall during December 30 on the north Tamil Nadu coast. After making landfall, it weakened quickly and the JTWC issued their final advisory on December 30. The storm left at least 46 dead in Tamil Nadu and Pondicherry, with the city of Cuddalore the most severely impacted location. In addition, 700 fishermen were reported as stranded near the Nizampatnam Bay area due to rough sea conditions. Very Severe Cyclonic Storm Thane was THE STRONGEST TROPICAL CYCLONE OF 2011 WITHIN THE NORTH INDIAN OCEAN.

PHILIPPINES - A potential cyclone remained a threat to Mindanao as it inched closer to the General Santos City area Monday afternoon, as state weather forecasters warned rains may threaten saturated areas in eastern Visayas, Mindanao and the Bicol Region in Luzon.

Cyclone Grant hit the north coast of Australia last week - It was a very windy start to last week across parts of northern Europe as several very deep areas of low pressure tracked eastwards across Scandinavia. On Monday, gusts of wind blowing at 63mph were recorded in Aarhus Syd, Denmark. Meanwhile, gusts of wind at 67mph occurred at Bjuroklubb in north-east Sweden on Tuesday. The strong winds caused flights to be cancelled at Turku airport, with trains delayed and some homes and businesses in Finland left without power.
Despite it being high summer in the southern hemisphere, Australia was also hit by stormy weather on Monday, when tropical cyclone Grant impacted on northern coastal areas. This time, it was persistent torrential rain that caused the most disruption. In the space of 24 hours 134.6 mm of rain fell at Tindal airbase, Northern Territory. The cyclone was eventually downgraded to a category two storm as it moved southwards across the mainland. (photo)

EXTREME HEAT & DROUGHT / WILDFIRES / CLIMATE CHANGE -

Blackouts and fires have marked South Australia's first heatwave of the summer with Adelaide sweltering through its HOTTEST NEW YEAR FOR MORE THAN A CENTURY. The city was sweating after four days with the temperatures in the high-30s or hotter, including two days above 40C. The weather bureau says a cold front is expected to sweep across the state this evening, dropping the city's forecast temperature to a more manageable 25c.

Monday, January 2, 2012

2012-01-02T15:54:00.002-06:00

Fearmongering gets started in 2012: - A tremendously terrible “article” was published in the Daily Mail this morning. The headline reads, "Is a super-volcano just 390 miles from London ready to blow?” It is referring to the Laacher See in western Germany – a caldera volcano that had a large eruption 12,900 years ago that covered a significant area of Europe with ash and tephra. Surely impressive considering how few people know about the caldera volcanism in central Europe. It starts off with the usual doom: “a sleeping super-volcano in Germany is showing worrying signs of waking up.”
Now, you have to look carefully for what their supposed signs are – all two of them. "This monster erupts every 10 to 12,000 years and last went off 12,900 years ago, so it could blow at any time.” No source for this recurrence interval and using poorly constrained recurrence intervals like we have at Laacher See is no way to say a volcano is (ugh) “due for an eruption”.
“Volcanologists believe that the Laacher See volcano is still active as carbon dioxide is bubbling up to the lake’s surface, which indicates that the magma chamber below is ‘degassing’.” Which, of course, Laacher See has been doing for centuries. There are stories of monks dying from asphyxiation due to carbon dioxide hundreds of years ago. Sure, it is a sign that magma is degassing, but magma passively degases all the time and is by no means, when presented as the only evidence, a sign of a volcano being “ready to blow”.
And honestly, there is no more substance to the article beyond this – no source, no named “experts”, nothing. So, the Daily Mail decided to run with a article proclaiming the imminent danger of the Laacher See based on it being supposedly “overdue” and that there are carbon dioxide seeps in the lake, something that have been there for hundreds if not thousands of years. This is the volcanic equivalent of the Daily Mail going out and saying, “Massive hurricane to hit London?” because they looked out the window and saw a cloud.
We’re going to be seeing article after article about all the calamities that might befall the Earth during this year based on no scientific evidence whatsoever.

**Stand up to your obstacles and do something about them.
You will find that they haven't
half the strength you think they have.**
Norman Vincent Peale

LARGEST QUAKES -
This morning -
5.1 NEAR EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
5.0 NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC RIDGE

Yesterday -
1/1/12 -
5.0 HALMAHERA, INDONESIA
5.3 NORTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA
5.1 VANUATU
5.1 OFF E. COAST OF S. ISLAND, N.Z.
7.0 IZU ISLANDS, JAPAN REGION
5.0 PACIFIC-ANTARCTIC RIDGE
5.2 SANTA CRUZ ISLANDS
5.1 GUAM REGION
5.1 GUAM REGION

Quake swarm rattles Christchurch, NEW ZEALAND - Christchurch's sunny summer evening has been disturbed by a magnitude-4.8 quake hitting just before 7pm. The 15km-deep aftershock is the 48th of a nasty swarm of earthquakes to rock the city today. Ten quakes hit Christchurch since midnight. The largest quake - 5.5 - struck 5.45am and was centred 20km north east of Lyttelton at a depth of 15km and followed just five minutes later by a 4.2 and then two 4.1s at 5.54am and 6.06am, a 3.9 at 6.49am, a 3.8 at 7.33am, a 4.1 at 9.01am, a 3.7 at 10.04am and another 3.7 at 10.18am. Since midday there has been a magnitude 3.3, at 1.49 pm, with a depth of 11 km, and a 3.9 which was 15 km deep. Both were centred 20 km east of the city.
The 5.5 shake took out power to thousands of Christchurch homes in the Shirley, Dallington, Burwood, Spencerville and Richmond areas. Power distribution company Orion said the tremor caused a transformer at its Dallington substation to trip.
Christchurch's Mayor said he had not received reports of any significant liquefaction from the shakes overnight. In Christchurch the quakes were mainly felt as a strong rolling motion, rather than the short, sharp jolts that tended to do more damage. Residents needed to remind themselves they should expect more aftershocks, following the 5.5 magnitude shake. "So just prepare yourself for one of those shaky Canterbury days." Quakelive has ranked the 5.5 at 5.45am as the 11th largest shake to hit the city.
The city was initially shaken awake today at 1.27am with a 5.1 magnitude quake, again centred 20km north of Lyttelton. Just four minutes later there was a 4.3 at a depth of 12km and then a 3.5 at 2.20am and a 3.8 at 5.03am. These were all 20km north-east of Christchurch and at depths of 12km, 20km and 8km respectively.
One Twitter user described the 5.1 event as ''like a violent train going through''. There were no immediate reports of further damage or liquefaction, but one Twitter user reported they had lost power. This morning's shakes followed a magnitude 4 aftershock at 10.05pm yesterday and a 3.5 shake at 7.38pm.
Aftershocks may be 'last gasp' of fault - The Large aftershocks distressing Christchurch residents may be the last gasps of the Port Hills Fault that ravaged the city on February 22 last year. Between midnight and 7.30am yesterday, 21 earthquakes, including magnitude-5.1 and magnitude-5.5 shakes, gave many people a sleepless night. The quakes were all centred in a patch of Pegasus Bay about 5 kilometres off New Brighton.
A National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research marine survey in April identified the presence of small, splintered faults in the area and further south near Port Levy, each capable of generating quakes of between magnitude 5.0 and 6.0. Researchers also discovered a larger fault running out to sea off Kaiapoi that some believe could produce a quake of about magnitude 7.0. One theory was the Port Hills Fault, or splinters of it, were responsible for the aftershocks hitting the city since December 23. "I'm sort of comfortable in thinking this could be some residual activity from the eastern end of the February 22 fault that didn't rupture all the way out there. We did see that there was a small patch of that fault that does go offshore that may not have had much activity until lately." The "patch" had been "very productive" in generating aftershocks since the two big quakes on December 23. "These [magnitude] 5.5s are pretty substantial but only a quarter, or a third, of the energy of the [magnitude] 6.0."
GNS Science researchers will work this week to come up with some answers on what was causing the swarm of quakes. All the quakes since December 23 were similar, produced by slip on short, steeply dipping faults oriented roughly east-northeast/west-southwest. "The magnitudes of the events are not particularly alarming, but what is of particular interest is that we are having something that is more swarm-like; that is, a multiple number of similar-sized events in a region, but not all on the same structure or fault." Stress modelling for the September 2010, February and June 13 quakes showed the area east of the city had experienced a small increase in stress supporting quake behaviour. "The stress changes are relatively small. They in themselves don't cause the earthquake. But if a region is suitably stressed prior to the stress change, then these small amounts of stress change can advance or trigger the subsequent events. Basically, the situation that Christchurch finds itself in is a region - and by this I mean the entire region surrounding the city - that was suitably stressed prior to the September event, and since that time we have seen a sequence of events that pretty much follow the patterns of where stresses were slightly increased by the September event. What has controlled the actual space-time pattern of events is not totally clear, but in general it has been pretty much an eastward march of earthquakes." Some "good news" was that each of the big quakes appeared to be acting independently. "When the February event occurred, it did not reinvigorate the Greendale Fault. Similarly, the June event did not reinvigorate either of the two previous faults, and the recent suite of events has not really lit up any of the previous regions, including the June rupture. It seems to indicate that each event is effective in reducing the stresses on its fault such that they are no longer in a triggerable situation."
"Good news in all of this is that the activity is moving east. After the June event, since it was on a structure of different orientation - more north-south - it was unclear whether the behaviour was changing. These events seem to indicate a return to the slow but sure eastward march. None of this really will make Cantabrians feel better about things, but what makes this a bit intriguing is that it has continued in such a systematic way for so long.... the entire region was sufficiently stressed, and there were numerous fault segments, none of them particularly large, that were near failure conditions."

VOLCANOES -

A new island has appeared off the west coast of YEMEN following a volcanic eruption, NASA said Friday. Thenew island is forming in the Red Sea in the Zubair archipelago resulting from a volcanic activity as lava is cooled by the surrounding seawater and solidifies. The underwater volcano behind the formation is located on the Red Sea Rift, where the African and Arabian tectonic plates are slowly pulling apart.
On 19 December, Yemeni fishermen first spotted lava spewing 30 metres into the air, which was later confirmed by satellite observations. The Ozone Monitoring Instrument aboard NASA's Aura satellite recorded elevated levels of sulphur dioxide in the region. By 23 December, the lava mass had broken the water's surface and the new island had begun to take shape. The island is currently around 500m wide and is still growing. The question now is whether or not it has staying power. It may continue to grow significantly as volcanic activity continues, or the fragile lava mass may be broken up by the action of the sea's waves.

Mt. Cleveland Volcano in ALASKA in the Aleutian Islands sent up an ash cloud on Thursday that prompted scientists to increase the alert level for commercial aircraft traffic. It was significant enough to raise the alert level from yellow, representing elevated unrest, to orange, representing an increased potential of eruption, or an eruption under way with minor ash emissions or no emissions. .

GREECE - Increased seismic activity of Santorini volcano in 2011/2012. The seismic unrest beneath Santorini which had started in July 2011 continues into 2012, greeting the world with a small swarm of quakes beneath the caldera.
The slightly increased number of quakes is concentrated on the volcano-tectonic Kameni line, which stretches SW-NE through the caldera and extends outside, especially to the NE where the submarine volcano Kolumbo is located 8 km off the coast. The alignment defines a tectonic graben structure underlying Santorini and has been used for rising magma for nearly all past eruptions of the volcano. (maps)

TROPICAL STORMS -
In the Indian Ocean -
Tropical cyclone 04s (Benilde) was located approximately 750 nm south of Diego Garcia.

INDIA - The very severe cyclone ‘Thane' [Benilde] has delivered a double whammy to Kerala — residual flooding rains to southern districts killing five, and an impromptu power load-shedding during peak evening hours. The pounding of South Kerala by heavy torrents after the ‘Thane' tail wagged over the region a day after, was of a scale that more than matched what was on show in worst storm-hit areas in the landfall region. A ‘Thane' remnant had delved more to a west-southwest track than expected and brought circular rain bands mopping up moisture from both the seas on either side of the tapering peninsular south. Haripad in Alappuzha recorded 22 cm of rains in 24 hours, while Thiruvananthapuram was swamped by 18 cm in only 10 hours until Saturday morning, and another four cm before the skies ‘shut down' after pelting the Capital City.
Only the day before ‘Thane' had rammed into obvious targets in Cuddalore and Puducherry with a vengeance buffeted by howling winds of up to 140 km/hr inflicting significant damage on life and property. At the last count, 42 lives have been lost in the contiguous State and Union Territory, but cumulative loss to property and infrastructure has been put at Rs 1,700 crore. The rains did not live up to the menacing strength of the storm, but were enough to flood mines at the Neyveli Lignite Corporation affecting power generation there. This short-circuited supplies to Kerala from the Central pool. A half-an-hour load-shedding was imposed in the State since Saturday during peak hours in the evening to night, which continued on Sunday as well. Meanwhile, the remnant circulation from ‘Thane' settled as a conventional low-pressure area over Lakshadweep on Sunday.
Cyclone Thane has finally settled over the Lakshadweep Islands, in the Arabian Sea, after wreaking havoc on the South Eastern coast of India. Roads, and rail traffic has been disrupted in the region, with rescue agencies doing their best to restore order. (YouTube video)

The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration is monitoring a potential cyclone east of Mindanao, which threatens to bring “super heavy rains” once it moves closer.

HEAVY SNOW / EXTREME COLD -

U.S. - Frigid air blasting over the Great Lakes blew in the season's first major lake effect snowstorm on Monday, blocking visibility and causing massive pileups on icy roads from Michigan to Kentucky. As much as 2 feet of snow was expected to fall on upstate New York by Tuesday as the storm moves eastward from Michigan, where over 1 foot of snow fell by Monday afternoon. "You can see all of the snow showing up from the upper Peninsula of Michigan through western New York state, all the way through western Virginia and Kentucky. It's this west-northwest flow over the lakes that's causing this lake effect."

EXTREME HEAT & DROUGHT / WILDFIRES / CLIMATE CHANGE -

AUSTRALIA - Fire danger warning. Victorians are already sweltering through temperatures in the mid-30s ahead forecast tops of up to 42C today. Authorities have issued urgent health warnings as the state's sweltering start to 2012 reaches its peak. The mercury passed 30C at Laverton and Melbourne Airport about 9.15am today, while Sheoaks in the west hit 31.3C. The temperature hovered around 21C for most of the night, dropping to a minimum of 20.1C just after 5am. The bureau has forecast a top of 40C for Melbourne today, while towns in the north of the state could reach 42C. The Country Fire Authority has declared a total fire ban for the central, Mallee, southwest and Wimmera districts, with a dry northerly wind of up to 30km/h expected in Melbourne. An extreme fire danger has been forecast for the southwest district, with maximum temperatures about 43C. High winds are tipped to stoke a severe fire danger risk across the western half of Victoria. The rest of the state is rated a very high or high fire danger.

CHILE - Deadly Chile forest fires spread. Firefighters in Chile are tackling dozens of forest fires which have killed one person and destroyed 230 sq km (57,000 acres) of land in the southern and central regions. A 75-year-old man died in Bio Bio after he refused to evacuate his home. Firefighters said they had managed to contain four out of six blazes in the Torres del Paine National Park. An Israeli tourist detained on Saturday has denied a charge of causing the park fire through negligence.
Chile is in a "situation of extreme vulnerability". On Sunday emergency services were battling 48 separate fires, 15 of which were not yet under control. Almost 130 sq km (32,000 acres) burned in the Torres del Paine National Park in Patagonia. In the Bio Bio region, fire destroyed more than 100 homes and a plant making wood panels. More than 500 firefighters have been deployed to stem the blaze. Chile always suffers forest fires during the southern hemisphere summer but drought has made 2011 a particularly bad year.

STRANGE ANIMAL BEHAVIOR -

Dead blackbirds fell again in Arkansas town - For the second year in a row, dozens of blackbirds died overnight Saturday in Beebe, Arkansas, apparently after being startled by New Year's Eve fireworks. Thousands of dead blackbirds rained down on the town in central Arkansas last New Year's Eve after revelers set off fireworks that spooked them from their roost, and officials were reporting a similar occurrence Saturday as 2012 approached. Police in Beebe said dozens of blackbirds had fallen dead, prompting officers to ban residents from shooting fireworks Saturday night. It wasn't immediately clear if fireworks were again to blame, but authorities weren't taking a chance.
The first reports of "birds on the streets" came around 7 p.m. as residents celebrated the year's end with fireworks in their neighborhoods. Police were working with animal control workers and others to remove the birds and determine a death count. "We're not sure if they're going to continue to fall throughout the night. I can't tell you." Scientists say the loud cracks and booms from celebratory fireworks likely sent the birds into such a tizzy that they crashed into homes, cars and each other before plummeting to their deaths last New Year's Eve. The birds landed on roofs, sidewalks, streets and fields. One struck a woman walking her dog. Another hit a police cruiser.
The blackbird die-off, coupled with tens of thousands of dead drum fish that washed up on the shores of the Arkansas River, flung the state into the national headlines and drew conspiracy theorists and filmmakers to the town about 30 miles northeast of Little Rock. Some people speculated that the birds had been poisoned; others said their deaths marked the beginning of the apocalypse. "I guess we could have an annual blackbird watch. People can just bring their umbrellas, open them up and walk through the neighborhood and hope they don't get hit."

Sunday, January 1, 2012

2012-01-01T19:23:00.004-06:00

Things are okay here right now and I hope to get the webpage updated on most of the coming days. THANK YOU to everyone who has sent get-well wishes and prayers. I appreciate it very much.
Just the quakes are listed today as I catch up.

**Good actions give strength to ourselves
and inspire good actions in others.**
Plato

LARGEST QUAKES -
Today -
5.0 HALMAHERA, INDONESIA
5.3 NORTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA
5.1 VANUATU
5.1 OFF E. COAST OF S. ISLAND, N.Z.
7.0 IZU ISLANDS, JAPAN REGION
5.0 PACIFIC-ANTARCTIC RIDGE
5.2 SANTA CRUZ ISLANDS
5.1 GUAM REGION
5.1 GUAM REGION

Yesterday -
12/31/11 -
5.3 SALTA, ARGENTINA
5.2 SOUTH ISLAND OF NEW ZEALAND
5.0 NEW GUINEA, PAPUA NEW GUINEA

12/30/11 -
5.5 SOUTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA
5.1 SOUTH OF KERMADEC ISLANDS
5.0 VANUATU REGION
5.1 SOUTH OF KERMADEC ISLANDS
5.1 IZU ISLANDS, JAPAN REGION
5.2 SOUTH SANDWICH ISLANDS REGION
5.1 NEAR COAST OF CENTRAL PERU
5.0 NEW BRITAIN REGION, P.N.G.

12/29/11 -
5.3 BOUGAINVILLE REGION, P.N.G.
5.3 VANUATU
5.5 PACIFIC-ANTARCTIC RIDGE

12/28/11 -
5.4 HALMAHERA, INDONESIA
5.1 TONGA
5.4 SOUTH SANDWICH ISLANDS REGION
5.1 FIJI REGION

12/27/11 -
5.2 SOUTHWEST OF AFRICA
6.5 SOUTHWESTERN SIBERIA, RUSSIA
5.0 BONIN ISLANDS, JAPAN REGION
5.4 IZU ISLANDS, JAPAN REGION

12/26/11 -
5.1 MINDANAO, PHILIPPINES
5.0 SOUTHEAST OF LOYALTY ISLANDS
5.5 VANUATU
6.1 TONGA

12/25/11 -
5.1 SOLOMON ISLANDS

7.0 Quake Shakes Tokyo But Causes No Damage - The quake struck near the uninhabited island of Torishima in the Pacific Ocean, about 600 kilometers (370 miles) south of Tokyo, and its epicenter was about 370 kilometers (230 miles) below the sea, causing no apparent damage or tsunami.
Japan Earthquake - YouTube

4.0 earthquake strikes in northeast Ohio - Officials said Saturday they believe the latest earthquake activity in northeast Ohio is related to fracking , the injection of wastewater into the ground near a fault line, creating enough pressure to cause seismic activity.

TROPICAL STORMS -
In the Indian Ocean -
Tropical cyclone 04s (Benilde) was located approximately 690 nm south of Diego Garcia.

Sunday, December 25, 2011

2011-12-25T05:13:00.002-06:00

Updates will be erratic this week as I deal with an illness in my family.

Spectacular Christmas Comet Amazes Skywatchers in Chile - A stunning comet that survived a recent brush with the sun is amazing astronomers again, this time in dazzling new photos captured just before sunrise over Chile. The comet Lovejoy may not be the famed Star of Bethlehem, but it still provided a jaw-dropping sight when photographed rising ahead of the sun on Dec. 22 at Paranal Observatory in Chile's high Atacama Desert. Time-lapse photos of comet Lovejoy show it rising ahead of the sun as the Paranal astronomers fire a laser beam, which serves as a guide star, into the sky. The Milky Way galaxy and the moon are also visible in the images. "The tail of the comet was easily visible with the naked eye, and the combination of the crescent moon, comet, Milky Way and the laser guide star was nearly as impressive to the naked eye as it appears in the long-exposure photos."

**Faith is the strength by which a shattered world
shall emerge into the light.**
Helen Keller

MERRY CHRISTMAS!

LARGEST QUAKES -
This morning -
None 5.0 or higher.

Yesterday -
12/24/11 -
5.2 NEW IRELAND REGION, P.N.G

12/23/11 -
5.9 SOUTH OF AFRICA
5.1 PAKISTAN
5.6 SOUTH OF KERMADEC ISLANDS
5.5 MINDORO, PHILIPPINES
5.1 SOUTH ISLAND OF NEW ZEALAND
5.9 SOUTH ISLAND OF NEW ZEALAND
5.4 SOUTH ISLAND OF NEW ZEALAND
5.8 OFF E. COAST OF S. ISLAND, NEW ZEALAND

NEW ZEALAND - Aftershocks continue to rock Christchurch. Christmas is off to a shaky start for Christchurch residents, with no sign of aftershocks easing up. Ten quakes measuring between 2.9 and 3.7 which rocked the New Zealand city this morning were among almost 60 aftershocks since it was jolted by two quakes measuring 5.8 and 6.0 on Friday. The quakes cut power to about 26,000 homes and caused issues with water supply and wastewater.
It has been a "hellish" year for the city and its residents. The bill forecast for the prior quake damage is expected to be between $NZ20 billion ($15.3 billion) and $NZ30 billion ($23 billion). The new quakes will result in a reassessment of whether some areas should revert to the red zone, where damage is such that building repair is judged uneconomical. Reassessment has been welcomed by many Parklands residents, who spent much of yesterday cleaning up silt brought to the surface by liquefaction.
Quake renders parts of Christchurch liquid - A number of Christchurch residents want their neighbourhood to be condemned, as liquefaction following yesterday's earthquake forced another clean-up. Aftershocks continued to rock Christchurch today after quakes measuring 5.8 and 6.0 shook the nerves of many residents on Friday. The quakes cut power to about 26,000 homes and caused issues with water supply and wastewater, though most of those services were back to normal by late Saturday.
But cleaning up huge amounts of silt caused by liquefaction was the biggest problem for many residents in the suburb of Parklands, who have already faced this issue twice before. Soil liquefaction describes a phenomenon whereby a saturated soil substantially loses strength and stiffness in response to applied stress, usually earthquake shaking or other sudden change in stress condition, causing it to behave like a liquid.
“We've had enough. We can't keep doing this. This will happen again and again." The area was zoned orange at one point but later switched back to green, or inhabitable. But with further liquefaction, they called for it to be hoarsened red, or uninhabitable. A reassessment may be necessary. “It's possible that some of those boundaries might change and go into red, but wall need to take a closer look at that when we can properly assess it, which will probably be early in the new year." (photo)

TROPICAL STORMS -
In the Indian Ocean -
Tropical cyclone 03s (Grant) was located approximately 150 nm northeast of Darwin, Australia.

AUSTRALIA - Tropical Cyclone Grant is bringing winds up to 110 km/h to the Cobourg Peninsula in the Northern Territory and residents are being warned of dangerous storm tides when it crosses the coast. The weather bureau says the cyclone, which formed early on Christmas morning, is expected to cross the Cobourg peninsula on Christmas night and move into the Van Diemen Gulf on Boxing Day. Darwin is expected to escape its full force, but could still be hit by damaging winds.
Coastal residents on the north side of the Cobourg peninsula are warned to expect a dangerous storm tide as the cyclone centre crosses the coast, as well as damaging waves and dangerous flooding. Cyclone Grant tracked easterly in the early hours of Sunday. Remote McCluer Island in the Arafura Sea received gale force winds gusting up to 76km/h, he said. "It has been pretty wet and wild in that part of the world. It is reasonably good news for Darwin because it is tracking eastwards and the likelihood of gales (in Darwin) is diminished." Forecasters were considering the possibility that Cyclone Grant might continue to drift eastwards without crossing back over water. Under that scenario the cyclone could weaken considerably. However, the Bureau of Meteorology said it was possible it could intensify, in which case destructive winds with gusts to 130km/h might develop on Sunday night.
Authorities have warned people in the Northern Territory's Top End not to travel around after 6pm (CST) on Christmas Day, and to have cyclone kits ready in case of emergency but not to move to public emergency shelters until they are advised to do so. However, residents west of Goulburn Island as far as Snake Bay on Melville Island have been urged to take shelter immediately.

SEVERE RAIN STORMS, FLOODING, LANDSLIDES -

AUSTRALIA - Mini-tornadoes are accompanying severe thunderstorms and hail that have hit many parts of Melbourne today. HAILSTONES THE SIZE OF LEMONS have caused widespread damage across the city. a tornado has been reported near Fiskville, west of Melbourne, associated with the thunderstorms.
The worst of the city storms had passed by 8.15pm (AEDT), when a severe weather warning was cancelled. However, much of regional Victoria remained at risk, with severe thunderstorm warnings for a number of areas. And storm warnings have also been issued for southern New South Wales and the ACT. On Twitter, residents reported their suburbs had been pelted with hailstones, including one man who said a hailstone smashed through his car window on the Hume Highway. 90 per cent of the emergency calls concerned smashed windows and skylights, while the damage to cars from hailstones will be widespread and severe. "And anyone who doesn't need to be driving should stay off the road." Parts of Melbourne also faced the threat of flash-flooding.

Friday, December 23, 2011

2011-12-23T00:36:00.003-06:00

There will be just a short update on Sunday, December 25.
Have a very Merry Christmas!

**The spirit of man is more important than mere physical strength,
and the spiritual fiber of a nation is more than its wealth.**
Dwight D. Eisenhower

LARGEST QUAKES -
This morning -
5.4 MINDORO, PHILIPPINES
5.8 SOUTH ISLAND OF NEW ZEALAND
5.3 SOUTH ISLAND OF NEW ZEALAND
5.8 OFF E. COAST OF S. ISLAND, NEW ZEALAND

Yesterday -
12/22/11 -
5.1 NIAS REGION, INDONESIA
5.2 SOUTH OF JAVA, INDONESIA

NEW ZEALAND - The earthquake-devastated city of Christchurch has been rocked by two powerful 5.8 magnitude tremors, sending terrified residents onto the streets and forcing the airport to close. The first quake struck at 1.58 pm (11.58am AEDT) as stores were packed with Christmas shoppers, turning their festive mood into panic as stock fell from shelves. Local news media reported people fleeing in fear as the quake and a series of strong aftershocks rattled the city.
The second 5.8 quake came 70 minutes later as inner-city streets were gridlocked by people desperate to get home. "You can't underestimate the ongoing stress this has created for people." The city continues to recover from a 6.3-magnitude quake in February that killed 181 people and destroyed much of the downtown. One person was rushed to hospital after being injured in a shopping mall and the National Crisis Management Centre was activated. Telephone services were cut in many areas and electricity supplies disrupted, but police said there were no reports of other injuries or widespread damage. The international airport and shopping malls were evacuated and closed after the earthquake as a precautionary measure. People were urged to stay away from hill suburbs because of the risk of rockfalls. Two vacant properties were reported to have collapsed and liquefaction appeared in some of the suburbs worst hit in previous earthquakes. Scientists had warned last month of an increased probability that another powerful earthquake would hit Christchurch. "We knew to expect aftershocks and one in the range around about 6.0 was expected over the next 12 months and that appears to have arrived."
"It was violent, some are long and slow. This one was violent and then three or four aftershocks." "I was terrified, I guess just because it's been so long since we've had a decent one. We've had a TV and glasses fall over but no repeat of liquefaction (when earth becomes fluid) like in June, so I guess it's not so bad.'' The local power company confirmed there were power outages and phone lines were jammed. Twitter reports said household items were smashed as the quake was felt as far south as Dunedin. Government seismologists said both 5.8 quakes were shallow. The series of shakes are the largest to hit the region in about three months. New Zealand sits on the so-called "Ring of Fire'', the boundary of the Australian and Pacific tectonic plates, and experiences up to 15,000 tremors a year.

VOLCANOES -

New Study: Eyjafjallajökull Eruption Health Hazard - The preliminary results of an extensive scientific study on the effects of the volcanic eruption in Eyjafjallajökull in south Iceland in April-June 2010 published earlier this month indicate that the eruption caused both physical complications and mental strain for local inhabitants.
While the eruption was still ongoing, authorities decided to carry out research on its impact on the health of south Iceland’s residents. A questionnaire was sent to all inhabitants of the region between Hvolsvöllur in the west to Öræfi in the east in the autumn of 2010. The response ratio was 71 percent. “The first conclusions show that there is a definite difference in symptoms from the respiratory organs: cough and mucus expectoration, discomfort, heaviness in the chest and other such symptoms, along with significant stress. You can sense that these people were under serious strain." Many of those who aren’t feeling well have already sought help. “One of the things the research showed was that those who feel worst are those who obtain the most assistance. We checked that and people are generally very satisfied with the support they have received.”

TROPICAL STORMS -
No current tropical storms.

Philippines floods: More than 1,000 remain missing - 1,079 people are still missing in the wake of the devastating Typhoon Washi. More than 1,000 others are known to have died in the storm, which struck Mindanao island on Saturday. Entire neighbourhoods in Cagayan de Oro and Iligan cities were swept away. The previous estimate for the missing was just 51 but officials say the new figure includes city migrant workers whose rural relatives did not immediately realise they were missing. The authorities acknowledge that the new number may still not be accurate. Entire families who were killed may still not be accounted for and some of the missing may also be counted among the unidentified dead. But it is clear that the scale of this disaster is far greater than the authorities originally thought.
The death toll from the disaster now stands at 1,080, the government says. Some 338,000 people have been affected and more than 10,000 homes damaged. Tens of thousands of people are now living in evacuation centres. Many of those who died were sleeping as Typhoon Washi caused rivers to burst their banks, leading to landslides.

Weather forecasters say a low pressure system off Australia's northern coast is expected to become a cyclone early on Christmas Day. A vast expanse of coast that includes Darwin and Arnham Land is on cyclone watch. It's a strange feeling waiting for a cyclone to arrive, a mix of adrenalin, anxiety, a little bit of excitement and a decent dose of fear.
Ex-tropical cyclone Fina may blow away plans for a Christmas on the beach, with strong winds and heavy swells set to hit the Fraser Coast at the weekend. It isexpected to whip up some dangerous surf conditions for the Sunshine Coast this Christmas. Swimmers and surfers are being urged to take care this weekend with rip-riddled eastern swell predicted to reach four metres. It has already brought big swells, strong winds to Illawarra coast. Ex-Tropical Cyclone Fina formed off the Queensland coast earlier this week.

SPACE WEATHER -

Mystery of 6kg ball that fell from the sky - A handout photo provided by the National Forensic Science Institute shows a giant metallic ball of 1.1 metre in diameter weighing some 6 kilograms that fell out of the sky on a remote grassland in Namibia, prompting baffled authorities to contact NASA and the European space agency (ESA). It left locals baffled when it fell from the sky without explanation. Now police have notified Nasa and the European Space Agency of this mysterious metal ball, which landed in northern Namibia.
It weighs around 6 kilograms and has a circumference of 1.1metres. It left a hole 30cm deep and nearly 4 metres wide when it hit the ground. Locals claimed to have heard several explosions in the days before it was discovered by a farmer on his land. The noise could have been a sonic boom or just the sound of the object hitting the ground. The find sparked speculation on the internet that it could be proof of extra terrestrial life. However, a more likely theory is that it is a hydrazine tank, used on satellites to store the flammable chemical.
More tests needed to be done before any conclusions about its origins can be reached. The ball was discovered a month ago but it had only now been made public. It was said to be made from a “sophisticated material”, which appeared to be a “metallic compound normally used in space vehicles”. Police deputy inspector general said that the ball, which landed 480 miles from the Namibian capital Windhoek, did not pose any danger. "It is not an explosive device, but rather hollow, but we had to investigate all this first.” (photo)

HEALTH THREATS -

A rush is on to determine if infant formula triggered a bacterial infection that killed one newborn and sickened another baby who were both treated at Missouri hospitals.

Thursday, December 22, 2011

2011-12-22T03:52:00.001-06:00

Russia's troubled Phobos-Grunt probe, stuck in the wrong orbit for more than a month, appears to be headed for a fiery and uncontrolled fall back to Earth early next month. Tracking experts are predicting that Phobos-Grunt will re-enter Earth's atmosphere on Jan. 9, 2012, but at present, the forecast includes an uncertainty of plus or minus 5 1/2 days. Some analysts are even suggesting that the spacecraft could see its demise as early as Jan. 1 or 2.
Meanwhile, the uncontrolled tumble of Phobos-Grunt into Earth's atmosphere is being eyed as a possible way to sharpen computer tools to more accurately calculate re-entry predictions. Since 1998, the IADC has performed re-entry prediction tests. Data-sharing between countries has helped hone skills to more precisely calculate the re-entries of spacecraft, rocket stages and even discarded hardware from the International Space Station. If Phobos-Grunt is a new target, it will be the third tracking campaign in 12 months — a record for the IADC. This year the agency monitored the uncontrolled re-entry of NASA’s defunct Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite on Sept. 24, followed by the downfall of Germany’s dead Roentgen Satellite (ROSAT) on Oct. 23. The Phobos-Grunt spacecraft tips the scale at nearly 14 tons. The probe is full of several tons of propellant — a hefty load of toxic hydrazine and nitrogen tetroxide fuel. This propellant, which would have sent Phobos-Grunt toward Mars, was left unused after a malfunction with the probe's engines stranded it in Earth orbit instead. Debris analysts in the U.S. point to Russian statements that the propellant tanks onboard Phobos-Grunt are made of aluminum, not heat-resistant titanium. As such, any propellant — frozen or unfrozen — should "burn up" or dissipate during the re-entry process. But components of the spacecraft are expected to reach the Earth’s surface — including the probe’s sample-return capsule. The nose cone-shaped hardware was designed to transport specimens of Phobos to Earth, and it was built to speed through Earth’s atmosphere and make a crash- landing at a recovery site, without a parachute.
Still to be seen is how Russian space officials plan to advise the public regarding the death throes of Phobos-Grunt and what leftovers might reach Earth’s surface. "After ROSAT came down over the Indian Ocean … there was widespread relief." ROSAT carried an X-ray telescope with heat-resistant components. This encouraged the view that larger parts could survive re-entry, and might pose a risk to people and objects on the ground. "It seems unlikely that Phobos-Grunt will somehow be rescued at this point. The last efforts were tied to a period where the orbit [of Phobos-Grunt] would have the spacecraft in sunlight throughout its orbit, raising hopes that it might have the power necessary to establish communications. But given the large dishes they've used in this effort and the lack of communications, we're left to await yet another re-entry. I hate to say it, but we're already working the 'death' watch here. The bottom line is that there is very little chance of anything reaching the ground and even if it did, it would likely do so over some ocean."
So, with the prospect of a third large spacecraft falling to Earth within the span of about four months, should the public be concerned? "People should not panic. Space debris is re-entering all the time, including fairly large rocket bodies. However, the public should not be completely dismissive of the threat that space debris poses, either." ROSAT, for example, fell just short of the Asian continent and landed in the Bay of Bengal. An incident in 1978 involving the former Soviet Union's nuclear-energized Cosmos 954 hurtled into a wilderness area of Canada. The clean-up operation from that fall was a coordinated event between the United States and Canada, with an estimated recovery of about 0.1 percent of Cosmos 954's power source. "If that spacecraft had completed just a couple of more orbits it may have landed in the continental United States. There was also the incident with [NASA’s] Skylab where debris from the falling space station fell onto the Australian town of Esperance."
"One of the uncertainties surrounding Phobos-Grunt is the lack of hard technical information about the spacecraft. If Roscosmos provided hard data about the construction of the spacecraft, including the construction of the propellant tanks, it might allay concerns about the danger the spacecraft poses." There is some question about the Chinese orbiter Yinghou 1 — a hitchhiking payload attached to Phobos-Grunt. There is little, if any, technical data about its construction and composition, including any potentially hazardous materials that might survive re-entry. "There is a lot of talk about international cooperation, and, in fact, the U.S. Strategic Command’s Joint Space Operations Center is providing Roscosmos with orbital information via a transparency and confidence-building measure signed by the United States and the Russian federation specifically for the purpose of providing such information for space situational awareness." The signed measure was a result of discussions that arose following the collision of a U.S. satellite and Russian satellite in February 2009.

**I love those who can smile in trouble,
who can gather strength from distress,
and grow brave by reflection.
'Tis the business of little minds to shrink,
but they whose heart is firm,
and whose conscience approves their conduct,
will pursue their principles unto death.**
Leonardo da Vinci

LARGEST QUAKES -
This morning -
None 5.0 or higher.

Yesterday -
12/21/11 -
5.5 SOUTH OF KERMADEC ISLANDS
5.2 VOLCANO ISLANDS, JAPAN REGION

TSUNAMI / FREAK WAVES / ABNORMAL TIDES -

First debris from Japanese earthquake/tsunami reaches Olympic Peninsula in Washington - The first piece of debris that could be identified as washing up on the West Coast from the March 11 tsunami in Japan — a large black float — was found on a Neah Bay beach two weeks ago. Since then, the two researchers, known as DriftBusters Inc. — who have used flotsam to track wind and water currents in the Pacific since 1970 — have learned that the black, 55-gallon drum-sized floats also have been found on Vancouver Island.
Tons of debris washed out to sea when a tsunami struck northern Japan after the massive magnitude-9.0 earthquake March 11. About a quarter of the 100 million tons of debris from Japan is expected to make landfall on beaches from southern Alaska to California, possibly in volumes large enough to clog ports. Debris will be snagged by currents leading into the Strait of Juan de Fuca and that a large portion of it will end up on beaches from the mouth of the Elwha River to Port Townsend. Many ocean models have shown that the massive congregation of flotsam that washed away from devastated Japanese coastal cities is in the middle of the Pacific and won’t make landfall in the U.S. for another year or two. Most of it is exactly where those models predicted, but those models don’t take into account wind and flotsam with large areas exposed to the wind.
Flotsam in a current travels an average of seven miles per hour, but it can move as much as 20 mph if it has a large area exposed to the wind.
The black floats are seen in the middle of the Pacific by the hundreds, and are not something that has been seen on Eastern Pacific beaches before. The floats are included in masses of black blobs supporting huge rafts of debris that include fishing boats, houses and possibly human bodies. Many of those bodies and parts of bodies will likely begin washing up in about a year, some simply as feet in athletic shoes, similar to those found in Puget Sound over the last decade. Athletic shoes make the perfect floats to preserve parts of bodies, and there are still thousands of people missing from tsunami-stricken areas of Japan. If the debris has any kind of identifiable marking, such as numbers or Japanese writing, it may be traceable. “All debris should be treated with a great reverence and respect." Families in Japan are waiting to hear of any items that may have been associated with their loved ones and may travel to the U.S. to meet those who found these mementos. Items that wash up may include portions of houses, boats, ships, furniture, portions of cars and just about anything else that floats. The rafts of debris include whole houses which may still contain many personal items, and the Japanese are known for storing important personal mementos in walls. Even the smallest of traceable items may be the only thing associated with one of those people who were lost during the disaster.
Some shipping lanes have already been rerouted to avoid the worst of the debris. People should also be aware of the possibility of radiation contamination. The Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant leaked a large amount of radiation into the water in the wake of the tsunami, and no one knows what levels of contamination there are in the currents, and the items being carried in those currents. The event was unprecedented, and no one knows yet what levels of radiation, if any, items have picked up.

TROPICAL STORMS -
No current tropical storms.

Two cyclones expected to form off Australia this week - Two tropical lows off northern Australia could develop into cyclones in coming days, but pose no immediate threat to mining and crop regions devastated by cyclones and flooding in early 2011. The two lows off the coast of Queensland state and the Northern Territory were travelling east and north respectively and were not forecast to touch land, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology warned on Wednesday. The low in the Coral Sea, about 1,100 kms (680 miles)off north Queensland, was expected to develop into a cyclone in the next 12 to 18 hours. "At this stage we do not expect to have any direct impact on the Queensland coast." Far north Queensland is home to some of the world's biggest deposits of bauxite, as well as alumina, aluminium, copper and nickel making facilities. If the storm maintained its predicted course southeast of Australia it could potentially pose a threat to the French territory of New Caledonia later in the week. In the sparsely-populated Northern Territory, a monsoon trough 250 kms (155 miles) off the coast of Darwin will develop into a tropical low, and there is a 50 to 100 percent chance of a cyclone developing by Friday.
Australia is bracing for a higher than normal number of cyclones over its November-April tropical storm season due to the presence of a La Nina weather pattern. The first cyclone of the season, named Alenga, developed earlier this month in the Indian Ocean off the west coast but dissipated before nearing land. A barrage of cyclones and tropical storms during the last storm season flooded collieries and halted iron ore mining while ripping apart sugar and wheat crops, driving up commodities prices around the world.

HEAVY SNOW / EXTREME COLD -

U.S. - A family has been rescued from a car that had been buried in a snowdrift for almost two days on a rural highway in the US state of New Mexico. Rescuers had to dig through 1.2 metres of ice and snow to free the family, whose four-wheel drive got stuck on a highway when a blizzard moved through the area on Tuesday. The parents and their five-year-old daughter were clinging to each other and lethargic when they were found at 2.45am local time Wednesday. State police say they got a distress call and launched a search for the family yesterday. They were among 32 vehicles state police and guardsmen rescued from the storm, but they were the only ones who police say needed medical attention. The family, from Texas, was recovering in hospital today.

EXTREME HEAT & DROUGHT / WILDFIRES / CLIMATE CHANGE -

AUSTRALIA - HOTTEST DECEMBER DAY ON RECORD. Pilbara residents in Western Australia are bracing for another searing day after Roebourne Airport recorded a sizzling 49C - the hottest December day on record in WA. Mardie shared the scorching 49C top with Roebourne Airport, with the overnight temperature dipping to just 28.4C at 5.37am in Mardie. The temperature dropped to just 27.4C at Roebourne Airport at 5.32am. Pilbara residents can expect another scorcher today after sweltering through yesterday's stifling near 50C heat. By 10am, at least two centres, Mardie and Onslow Airport, had topped 46C. A Severe fire danger warning has been issued for the Gascoyne and coastal parts of the Pilbara, with extreme temperatures and hot dry winds forecast. By 8am today, temperatures had already soared towards 40C across much of the region, with Mardie recording a staggering 42.6C at 8.03am. By 9am it was 44C. Onslow was also baking with the temperature hitting 45.2C just after 9.30am at the airport, a few kilometres inland from the town. Marble Bar, Australia's hottest town, officially recorded a high of 48.4C yesterday and can expect 47C today. After an overnight minimum of 30.5C at 4.20am, the temperature had risen to 39.8C at 10.25am. Roebourne is tipped to get another scorcher today of 45C.

Wednesday, December 21, 2011

2011-12-20T23:51:00.002-06:00

Philippines - The official death toll from last week's massive flash flooding in two southern Philippine cities topped 1000 on Wednesday as authorities said they lost count of how many more were missing. The latest tally showed a total of 1,002 have been confirmed dead, including 650 in Cagayan de Oro and an additional 283 in nearby Iligan city. The rest came from several other southern and central provinces. A tropical storm swept through the area Friday night and unleashed flash floods in the middle of the night that caught most of the victims in their sleep. "There were many lessons learned by the people who did not listen to national and local governments, but this is not the time to put the blame on them."

**Mastering others is strength.
Mastering yourself is true power.**
Lao Tzu

LARGEST QUAKES -
This morning -
None 5.0 or higher.

Yesterday -
12/20/11 -
5.0 KEPULAUAN BARAT DAYA, INDONESIA
5.0 NEAR EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
5.1 OFF COAST OF CHIAPAS, MEXICO

VOLCANOES -

Volcanic Eruption in the Red Sea (Yemen) reported - According to local news, a volcano erupted near Saba Island in the Red Sea on Monday, December 19. The report comes from fishermen from Salif, a port city in western Yemen. They reported seeing lava fountains rising 20-30 meter which could be seen from "3 hours" (sailing time) away. The likely source of the eruption, if the reports are true, could be one of the islands Zubair islands: Jebel Zubair, Centre Peak, Saba, or Haycock island, which form a small archipelago 30 miles (50 km) west of Salif. The islands belong to a mostly submerged, active shield volcano located on the Red Sea rift axis.
The fishermen are said that "this was the first volcano they ever seen in the region", which is not surprising as the last activity of the volcano was an eruption in 1824. At the moment, the report remains a bit questionable: no thermal anomaly or ash clouds are visible on satellite data. This could indicate that either the eruption was extremely short and small, or (more likely) that there something else happened (military action, fire etc) which was mistaken by untrained distant observers for lava fountains. On the other hand, volcanic eruptions on the Red Sea rift are nothing unusual, although the remoteness of the area often prevents observation.
[In 2007, a volcanic eruption off the Red Sea coast of Yemen spewed lava hundreds of metres into the air on October 1 and at least nine people were missing at sea. The eruption occurred on Jazirt Mount al-Tair, an island about 140 kilometres from Yemen. Several earthquakes were felt on the island, triggering the eruption. The entire three-kilometre-long island was aglow with lava as it poured into the sea.]

TROPICAL STORMS -
No current tropical storms.

Two cyclones are brewing off the Australian coast and one is less than 300 kilometres from Darwin. A cyclone over the Coral Sea is unlikely to cause any major problems, but a tropical low forming off the Northern Territory coast, 250km from Darwin, is unpredictable. The tropical low DOES NOT FIT ANY WEATHER MODELS and it is a case of waiting to see if it became more aggressive and in which direction it will travel. It will move in a northerly direction over the few days but after that "where it heads and how intense it becomes is unpredictable. None of the models, which help us forecast the movement and intensity of weather systems, agree where it's going to be or what intensity. The one thing the models do agree on is it is going to intensify over the next few days. There is a chance it will form a cyclone ... and if it does, we don't know where it's going to move."
Up to 16 cyclones are expected this summer. The one forming over the Coral Sea will be the second in recent weeks and will track south between Australia and New Caledonia. "It's 1000 kilometres off the coast. There's already been one in the Indian Ocean so this one will be the second, and a third tropical low (off the Northern Territory coast) may be number three." The northern part of Australia typically experiences cyclones each season, which lasts until April. On Christmas Eve in 1974, Cyclone Tracy devastated much of Darwin and killed 71 people.

The authorities in the southern Philippines are struggling to deal with the aftermath of devastating flooding brought by Typhoon Washi. More than 1,000 people are dead or missing after the weekend's disaster - many people were washed out to sea. Mass burials have been carried out in some areas, while there is anger than some bodies have been stored at dumps. There are concerns that disease could begin spreading in the shelters where thousands of survivors are now living. The President said officials have an obligation to find out why so many people died and why no proper disaster plans were in place. "If we want this tragedy to be the last of its kind, we need to learn from our mistakes." Although there are detailed disaster-preparedness plans in other parts of the Philippines, there is a sense that this was lacking in the region where the storms hit.
Officials say the final death toll is likely to pass 1,000, with bodies still being recovered at sea. Some 338,000 were affected and more than 10,000 homes damaged. About 40,000 people on Mindanao, many of whom were already desperately poor, are now living in evacuation centres after losing their homes and possessions. The centres have become severely overcrowded, with signs of disease beginning to appear. "It's really a struggle to manage those evacuation centres, there's a shortage of water and a shortage of food." Questions are also being asked about whether illegal logging on the coastal hillsides worsened the scale of the disaster. The UN Special Representative on Disaster Risk Reduction said the disaster showed that more must be done "to ensure early warning systems are effective in an age when climate change is intensifying the impact of typhoons". (map)

HEAVY SNOW / EXTREME COLD -

The death toll in a cold wave sweeping through northern India has risen to 39. The majority of deaths were in the state of Uttar Pradesh. Punjab and Haryana are among the other northern states badly hit. Most deaths take place among the homeless and the elderly. Last week, the country's Supreme Court ordered states to provide adequate night shelters for the homeless during the winter. "You should not allow even a single person to die this winter from the freezing cold." Heavy fog and a cold wind have disrupted life across northern India with sub-zero temperatures in Indian-administered Kashmir. The capital, Delhi, is also in the throes of a cold snap, with temperatures dipping to 2.3C and fog disrupting flight schedules. The cold wave has forced schools to shut in the state of Bihar until 25 December. An official from the meteorological department said the cold weather would continue for a number of days.

U.S. - A massive winter storm blamed for at least six deaths made travel nearly impossible in parts of the central United States. "Blizzard conditions that caused fatal accidents and rendered highways impassable in five states crawled deeper into the Great Plains early Tuesday (local time). Hotels filled up quickly along major roadways from eastern New Mexico to Kansas, and nearly 100 rescue calls came in from motorists in the Texas Panhandle." Snow drifts reached three metres in parts of Colorado after strong winds whipped at the 38 centimetres of snow had fallen since the storm began on Monday. Parts of New Mexico were blanketed by 61 centimetres of snow while Kansas got up to 30 centimetres by overnight. While the heaviest snowfall had mostly ended by midday on Tuesday (local time), blizzard conditions continued in many areas as strong winds of up to 80km/h whipped up heavy white flakes.

HEALTH THREATS -

Hong Kong has raised its bird flu alert level to "serious" and announced it is to cull 17,000 chickens after three birds, including a dead chicken from a marketplace, tested positive for the deadly H5N1 strain of the virus. Officials banned all live poultry imports. The other two birds that tested positive for H5N1 were an Oriental magpie robin and a black-headed gull. The "serious" response level covers two scenarios, the less serious of which involves a highly pathogenic avian flu outbreak in the environment of or among poultry, as is the case today. (The second scenario involves a human case with no evidence of person-to-person transmission.) Hong Kong was the site of the first known outbreak of H5N1 in people in 1997, when 18 were infected and six died.

Hospital bath basins commonly contaminated with drug-resistant pathogens - Hospital bath basins — those portable, rectangular plastic bins used in hospital rooms — are often contaminated with common pathogens, many of which are drug-resistant. Researchers swabbed 1,103 basins from 88 US and Canadian hospitals during a 44-month study. The basins were from regular wards, medical-surgical wards, and intensive care units. They were rinsed with tap water and soap between uses, per infection-control guidelines, were not disinfected, but no basins were shared between patients. Of the basins tested, 686 (62%) were contaminated with at least one of the three pathogen tested for: 39% with one, 22% with two, and 2% with all three. All hospitals had contaminated bath basins. The authors conclude, "The use of basins should be limited to the extent possible, to eliminate a potentially hazardous environmental reservoir for serious nosocomial pathogens...Medical equipment and supplies should not be stored in basins."

Unused restroom paper towels may also harbor harmful bacteria - Canadian researchers found that unused paper towels in restrooms can harbor potentially harmful bacteria and that bacteria can be passed on to hands or hospital gloves after hand washing. The scientists tested six brands of restroom-quality paper towels and found bacteria of the Bacillus genus to be the most abundant microorganisms detected, on 83% of towels, followed by Paenibacillus (16%), Exiguobacterium (1.6%), and Clostridium (0.01%). They also found that paper towels made from recycled fibers harbored 100- to 1,000-fold more bacteria than those made from virgin wood. In addition, they found the bacteria were "easily transferred" to nitrile gloves after hand washing but not through airborne routes. "This study demonstrates that a diverse community of culturable bacteria contaminates unused paper towels and that some of these bacterial strains may be toxin producers."

New England seal deaths caused by H3N8 - Scientists studying a string of deaths in 162 seals since September off the New England coast have confirmed H3N8 influenza in five of the dead seals. "This H3N8 virus is usually associated with wild birds, and a separate group of H3N8 infects horses and dogs. This is the FIRST TIME that a virus which is similar to the H3N8 avian influenza virus has been associated with a large-scale mortality in marine mammals...We are now conducting tests on additional animals to learn more about the role this virus may have played in the die-off and to better understand the virus itself." In the meantime, the agency warned people to stay away from seals in distress, keep pets away, and call an NOAA hotline.

Two more sickened in ground beef Salmonella outbreak - Two more patients have been sickened in a Salmonella Typhimurium outbreak linked to a grocery store chain's ground beef, raising the total to 16. On Dec 15, Hannaford, a Maine-based chain, recalled an undetermined amount of its fresh, in-store ground beef after epidemiologic investigations into 14 illnesses with the same genetic fingerprint found a link to the products. The CDC said the patients are from seven different states: four each from Maine, New Hampshire, and New York, and one each from Hawaii, Kentucky, Massachusetts, and Vermont. Initial tests suggest the outbreak strain is resistant to several commonly prescribed antibiotics, which could increase the risk of hospitalization or treatment failure. Among 13 cases with available information, 7 patients were hospitalized. No deaths have been reported. Eleven of the 16 patients said they ate ground beef the week before they got sick, and all but one reported buying ground beef from Hannaford stores. The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) has said the company's sparse records were making it difficult to identify the companies that supplied the beef.

Tuesday, December 20, 2011

2011-12-20T00:02:00.002-06:00

'Fountains' of methane bubbling to surface in Arctic - Russian research team shocked and astonished as retreat of Arctic sea ice releases deadly greenhouse gas. Dramatic and UNPRECEDENTED plumes of methane – a greenhouse gas 20 times more potent than carbon dioxide – have been seen bubbling to the surface of the Arctic Ocean by scientists undertaking an extensive survey of the region.
The scale and volume of the methane release has astonished the head of the Russian research team who has been surveying the seabed of the East Siberian Arctic Shelf off northern Russia for nearly 20 years. He said that he HAS NEVER BEFORE WITNESSED THE SCALE AND FORCE OF THE METHANE BEING RELEASED from beneath the Arctic seabed. "Earlier we found torch-like structures like this but they were only tens of metres in diameter. This is the first time that we've found continuous, powerful and impressive seeping structures, more than 1,000 metres in diameter. It's amazing. I was most impressed by the sheer scale and high density of the plumes. Over a relatively small area we found more than 100, but over a wider area there should be thousands of them."
Scientists estimate that there are hundreds of millions of tonnes of methane gas locked away beneath the Arctic permafrost, which extends from the mainland into the seabed of the relatively shallow sea of the East Siberian Arctic Shelf. One of the greatest fears is that with the disappearance of the Arctic sea-ice in summer, and rapidly rising temperatures across the entire region, which are already melting the Siberian permafrost, the trapped methane could be suddenly released into the atmosphere leading to rapid and severe climate change.
The team published a study in 2010 estimating that the methane emissions from this region were about eight million tonnes a year, but the latest expedition suggests this is a significant underestimate of the phenomenon. "In a very small area, less than 10,000 square miles, we have counted more than 100 fountains, or torch-like structures, bubbling through the water column and injected directly into the atmosphere from the seabed. We carried out checks at about 115 stationary points and discovered methane fields of a fantastic scale – I think on a scale not seen before. Some plumes were a kilometre or more wide and the emissions went directly into the atmosphere – the concentration was a hundred times higher than normal."

**Because your own strength is unequal to the task,
do not assume that it is beyond the powers of man;
but if anything is within the powers and province of man,
believe that it is within your own also.**
Marcus Aurelius

LARGEST QUAKES -
This morning -
5.0 OFFSHORE CHIAPAS, MEXICO

Yesterday -
12/19/11 -
5.7 SULAWESI, INDONESIA
5.4 SOUTH SANDWICH ISLANDS REGION
5.5 KERMADEC ISLANDS REGION

VOLCANOES -

El Hierro volcano (Canary Islands, Spain) - The submarine eruption south of El Hierro is still going on, but there are signs that the magma supply has dropped significantly. Most likely, the eruption which now has lasted over 2 months is approaching its end. Volcanic tremor has decreased a lot.

TROPICAL STORMS -
In the Western Pacific -
Tropical depression 27w (Washi) was located approximately 235 nm east of Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam. The final warning on this system has been issued.

As the death toll from flash floods produced by Tropical Storm Washi rose Monday to 927, officials in the southern Philippines turned their attention to survivors and the threat of disease in crowded evacuation centers. Tropical storm Washi MAY BE THE DEADLIEST STORM TO STRIKE THE GLOBE IN 2011. With funeral parlors overwhelmed, authorities in a flood-stricken southern Philippine city organized the first mass burial of unidentified victims who were swept to their deaths in ONE OF THE WORST CALAMITIES TO STRIKE THE REGION IN DECADES.
On Friday night, the compact but deadly tropical storm Washi swept across the central and southern Philippines killing hundreds. Scores of people are unaccounted for and thousands homeless. Although Washi was not an especially intense storm with peak winds of just 45-55 mph, the torrential rains and resulting mudslides caught the especially vulnerable region offguard. "Since the rains fell on regions where the natural forest had been illegally logged or converted to pineapple plantations, the heavy rains were able to run off quickly on the relatively barren soils and create devastating flash floods. Since the storm hit in the middle of the night, and affected an unprepared population that had no flood warning system in place, the death toll was tragically high."
The storm struck a region unaccustomed to tropical storms and rain of that intensity. "The areas hit hardest in the Philippines HAD NEVER SEEN SUCH WIDESPREAD DAMAGE OR HEAVY RAIN IN THEIR LIFETIME. Thousands of people had to climb up on the roofs of their houses as flood waters rose nearly three feet in one hour. People were swept out to sea while others were buried alive in mudslides due to the higher elevation in the area. The mayor of Iligan said, “It’s THE WORST FLOOD IN THE HISTORY OF OUR CITY. It happened so fast.” The region received 7-8 inches of rain from the quick-hitting storm, compared to an average of about 2” for the entire month of December. In addition to the lives lost, 7,000 houses were swept away, destroyed or damaged. About 40,000 people on the island of Mindanao (in the southern Philippines) are living in evacuation centres.
Washi, known in the Philippines as Sendong, may be the deadliest storm to strike any place in the world in 2011. Until Washi, the deadliest global weather disaster had been Brazil’s flash flood in January, which claimed 902 lives.

Monday, December 19, 2011

2011-12-19T01:16:00.001-06:00

This past week, U.S. federal weather forecasters announced their predictions for the beginning of 2012. - They say the first three months of 2012 will see warmer than normal temperatures in the eastern U.S. and the opposite out west. The weather predictions are based on the continued effects of the La Nina weather phenomenon.
The effects of Texas' prolonged drought on the state's cattle industry were apparent this week. The state's cattle population has dropped by 12 percent since the beginning of 2011, totaling a loss of 600,000 cows. Heavy winds continued in the United Kingdom this week, with gusts of up to 70 miles per hour hitting some coastal areas of Southern England. Hurricane Irene recovery in Vermont and New Hampshire continues. ( pictures of extreme weather from around the world in the past week)

**You have power over your mind - not outside events.
Realize this, and you will find strength.**
Marcus Aurelius

LARGEST QUAKES -
This morning -
5.5 SULAWESI, INDONESIA
5.6 KERMADEC ISLANDS REGION

Yesterday -
12/18/11 -
5.0 NEAR EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN

TROPICAL STORMS -
In the Western Pacific -
Tropical Storm 27w (Washi) was located approximately 360 nm east-southeast of Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam.

PHILIPPINES - Tropical Storm Washi blew away devastated a wide swath of the southern Philippines with flash floods that turned two coastal cities into a muddy wasteland filled with overturned cars and uprooted trees. A mass burial has been organised for scores of people killed by the flash floods on the southern island of Mindanao. Coastal communities were devastated early on Saturday in flash floods triggered by the tropical storm that coincided with high tides. 652 people were killed and another 808 people are still missing. As rivers burst their banks, many were trapped in their homes while in other areas entire villages are reported to have been swept away. Authorities are facing criticism for not giving enough warning of the storm's severity.
Damaged roads are hampering efforts to reach survivors in remote villages. The ports of Iligan and nearby Cagayan de Oro bore the brunt of the flooding. Funeral parlours have been overwhelmed by the catastrophe.
Officials in Cagayan de Oro said corpses were piling up unclaimed at mortuaries and overworked staff had run out of coffins. About 35,000 people are sheltering in evacuation centres. The government says survivors are in desperate need of fresh water, shelter and medicine. Although the Philippines is struck by several typhoons and tropical storms every year, the south of the country usually escapes the worst damage. (map)

MALAYSIA - Tropical storm Washi, that battered southern Philippines over the weekend, is moving towards Sabah and Sarawak and is expected to cause thunderstorms, rough seas and strong winds.
The rough weather is expected to last till Thursday. The storm was moving westwards from Palawan, Philippines towards the waters of Labuan and Kudat, Sabah, the west coast and interior districts as well as parts of Sarawak. Waves of more than 5.5 metres high were also forecast for peninsular Malaysia's east coast, leaving it vulnerable to rising sea levels until Saturday.

THAILAND - Tropical storm Washi is expected to wreak havoc in southern Thailand. The storm was forecast to move through the lower South China Sea and weaken before hitting the coast of Malaysia by Wednesday. This would result in more torrential rains in the South, particularly in Nakhon Si Thammarat, Songkhla, and Phatthalung provinces, with rough seas expected in the Gulf of Thailand until Thursday.
A weather front that was causing cold spells in upper Thailand had brought about heavy rains in the lower South for days which had triggered floods and landslides in several areas. At least two major incidents of landslides were reported in Songkhla on Sunday, one in Rattaphum and the other in Krasae Sin districts.
No injuries were reported in the latest landslides. About 200 families in Phatthalung's Khuan Khanun district had been affected by flooding for five days, while fresh flash floods were reported in Trang's Muang district.
Authorities warn that worse may be on the way. The impact of the high weather pressure combined with the influence of a low pressure zone in the South China Sea will result in heavier rains in certain areas. Small boats were advised to stay ashore for a few days. The Disaster Prevention and Mitigation Office, meanwhile, has declared 8,724 villages in 11 provinces in the North and the Northeast as areas stricken by the cold weather. The high weather pressure coming from China will continue to cause temperature drops of between 2C and 3C and strong winds in these provinces

HEAVY SNOW / EXTREME COLD -

U.S. Southwest, plains face blizzard warnings in big storm - The panhandles of Texas and Oklahoma were placed under a blizzard warning on Sunday as the Southwest and plains states braced for two days of bitter cold, heavy snow, rain and high winds. The storm is expected to produce up to 16 inches of snow and wind gusting to 50 mph in the first major snowstorm of the winter for Texas and Oklahoma. A blizzard watch was also in effect until Tuesday for parts of Colorado, New Mexico and Kansas, with high winds and up to a more than a foot of snow expected across the region. The storm was expected to edge into the mountains of Arizona, New Mexico and Colorado before heading east on Sunday night or this morning. By tonight, conditions further east in the Texas and Oklahoma panhandles are expected to have deteriorated so much that officials warned motorists to stay off the roads. The mix of rain and snow will move into the Chicago and Detroit areas on Tuesday, forecasters said. In Guymon, in the Oklahoma Panhandle, emergency management officials met on Sunday to go over storm preparations. With wind gusts up to 50 mph predicted, blowing snow could cause problems. "It's unbelievable. Right now it's 65 degrees. Tomorrow we're expecting to have our snow boots on."

Alaska's storm listed among most significant events for November - The massive “extratropical cyclone” that walloped Bering Sea and Northwestern Alaska communities with high winds and blizzard conditions last month was named one of the eight significant climate events to strike the United States in November. Winds gusted to over 80 mph and the storm surge topped 8 feet, marking THE STRONGEST STORM TO IMPACT THE REGION IN DECADES." Other startling U.S. weather developments that month included a tornado that struck Oklahoma, RECORD WARMTH in some New England states and the third most active hurricane season on record.
Alaska's storm began as an intense low pressure system that formed southeast of Japan on Nov. 7 and grew stronger and more intense as it rolled across the North Pacific toward Alaska’s Aleutian frontier. As this cyclone whirled into position, the storm’s interior pressure dropped 50 millibars in 24 hours to a minimum of 944 millibars — comparable to a Category 1 hurricane. “Waves to 35 feet and 100 mph winds were recorded offshore as the storm approached. Hurricane force winds and blizzard conditions affected coastal Alaska. Storm surges of up to 10 feet affected communities along Alaska’s west coast - causing flooding, some structural damage and property loss...An ice zone connected to land had not yet developed to lessen the impact of large waves striking the coast.” NOAA reported the state saw the sixth coolest temperatures since 1918. Overall, 2011 has delivered almost exactly average temperatures to the Far North state — the 43rd coldest of the past 94 years. Despite lots of snow in southern Alaska, November was the 41st driest in the record, with 2011 giving the state the 41st driest January-November since 1918.

Sunday, December 18, 2011

2011-12-18T02:44:00.002-06:00

**A nation that destroys its soils destroys itself.
Forests are the lungs of our land,
purifying the air and giving fresh strength to our people.**
Franklin D. Roosevelt

LARGEST QUAKES -
This morning -
None 5.0 or higher.

Yesterday -
12/17/11 -
5.0 SOUTH OF FIJI ISLANDS
5.2 SOUTH SANDWICH ISLANDS REGION
5.2 SOUTH OF KERMADEC ISLANDS
5.2 MONA PASSAGE, PUERTO RICO
5.1 MONA PASSAGE, PUERTO RICO

12/16/11 -
5.2 SOUTHWEST OF SUMATRA, INDONESIA
5.1 OFF W COAST OF NORTHERN SUMATRA
5.0 NICOBAR ISLANDS, INDIA REGION
5.2 PACIFIC-ANTARCTIC RIDGE
5.6 OFF COAST OF AISEN, CHILE
5.1 OFF COAST OF AISEN, CHILE

12/15/11 -
5.7 IZU ISLANDS, JAPAN REGION
5.4 IZU ISLANDS, JAPAN REGION
6.0 SOUTH OF KERMADEC ISLANDS
5.5 KERMADEC ISLANDS REGION
5.3 SOUTH SANDWICH ISLANDS REGION
5.1 OFF EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN

PUERTO RICO - Two strong earthquakes struck Puerto Rico within minutes of each other. The quakes, with magnitudes of 5.1 and 5.2 respectively, occurred three minutes apart just after 2am local time early Saturday in the Mona Passage, just to the west of the island. A smaller aftershock was reported a few minutes later, and all were felt in the capital, San Juan. The 5.1 quake was recorded at a depth of 14 kilometres, while the 5.3 quake occurred at a depth of 17 kilometres. No tsunami alert was issued.
Some residents in the island's southwest region reported power outages as well as broken items around the house. No injuries have been reported. There were no immediate reports of damage in the neighbouring Dominican Republic.

VOLCANOES -

INDONESIA - Villagers Facing Cold Lava Flood in Gamalama. Mount Gamalama in Ternate, Maluku Province, is still erupting. Residents around the area are now worried about cold lava flood. “The chance of cold lava flooding is increased because of rising rainfalls." Residents were warned to stay away from Disaster-prone Area III and II due to the possible hot clouds. Cold lava flood threatens Disaster-prone Area I.
“Currently, there are 646 households or 2,731 people evacuated in nine evacuation posts." There are no fatalities from the eruption. Mount Gamalama erupted on December 4 around 10.25 a.m. It was raining in North Maluku and the power was out when the eruption took place. However, there were no material losses from the eruption. The eruption had disturbed flights between Manado and Ternate. However, on Sunday, Dec 11, Manado-Ternate flights were reopened.

TROPICAL STORMS -
In the Western Pacific -
Tropical Storm 27w (Washi) was located approximately 630 nm east of Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam.

600 dead as flooding ravages Philippines - Tropical storm Washi has unleashed widespread floods across southern Philippines. whipped the southern Philippines, unleashing mammoth floods across vast areas of the country. The cities of Cagayan de Oro and nearby Iligan on Mindanao island were worst hit when Typhoon Wasi slammed ashore while people slept late on Friday and early Saturday, sending torrents of water and mud through villages and stripping mountainsides bare. Relief workers said that 440 people had died and nearly 200 left missing after the storm wreaked havoc, destroying whole neighbourhoods.
About 20,000 soldiers had been mobilised in a huge rescue and relief operation across the stricken north coast of the island of Mindanao. Iligan's mayor described rampaging floodwaters from swollen rivers that swamped up to a quarter of the land area of the city of 100,000. "It's the worst flood in the history of our city. It happened so fast, at a time when people were fast asleep." The TV station showed dramatic pictures of a family escaping out of the window of their home in the town as the floods rose, and rescue workers in orange vests shepherding survivors to safety above chest-deep waters.
The President expressed concern at the extent of the tragedy and ordered government agencies to map out areas in the country most vulnerable to future flash floods. "These areas will be at risk every year... The first (step in) mitigation has to be relocation from these areas." The head of the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council said Mindanao residents were warned about the dangers posed by the storm days earlier but elected not to move to safer areas. Mindanao was rarely visited by storms, even as 20 major storms strike the Philippines annually, with most hitting Luzon, the largest and most populous island in the Southeast Asian archipelago. "We expect huge damage, especially on agriculture." An Iligan resident recounted how she and her children watched in terror from their rooftop as the floodwaters swallowed up the neighbourhood. "All the small houses behind ours were destroyed, and many of my neighbours are missing."
Waters began rising shortly before midnight (1600 GMT Friday) as people slept, sweeping houses made of light materials and their inhabitants along the riverbanks. "Many of them told me they sought refuge on their rooftops." Two of the three rivers that flow into the port of Iligan had overflowed, and a popular radio commentator was among those killed. Most of the dead were asleep Friday night when raging floodwaters tore through their homes from swollen rivers and cascaded from mountain slopes following 12 hours of pounding rain in the southern Mindanao region. Many of the bodies in parlours were unclaimed, indicating that entire families had perished. More than 4000 people in flooded areas were moved to evacuation centres. Two typhoons, Nesat and Nalgae, hit the country within days of each other from late September, leaving more than 100 people dead, while tropical storm Banyan killed another eight people in October.

SEVERE RAIN STORMS, FLOODING, LANDSLIDES -

A storm has battered north-western France, leaving hundreds of thousands without power, disrupting rail traffic and grounding a ship that spilled oil off the coast of Brittany. There were no immediate reports of serious injuries or significant damage as storm Joachim moved further inland to Switzerland and Germany. France had escaped largely unscathed. "It seems there have been no victims. A certain number" of people living in low-lying areas in Brittany had been evacuated because of the storm."
Officials said 400,000 homes had lost electricity, mainly in the west of the country. By mid-day, the number of homes without electricity had fallen to 330,000 as workers scrambled to restore electricity infrastructure.
The storm had been battering the area since Thursday night, with gusts of wind of up to 133km/h and waves up to 7m high. The storm caused a cargo ship to run aground and spill some oil into the sea off Brittany. Train traffic was disrupted, with more than 15 trains cancelled in central France and significant delays. The storm was moving its way inland, with Swiss authorities reporting it caused a train to derail in Switzerland, lightly injuring three people.

NEW ZEALAND - Residents of a New Zealand town will be evacuated as floods inundate the area following THE WORST RAINFALL IN 40 YEARS. Supplies are being delivered to residents in Cable Bay, near Nelson at the top of the South Island, who are expected to be isolated by road for weeks, while others in the area are unable to return to their homes as waters rise. Civil Defence says it will take two to three weeks to clear roads to Cable Bay, where power is still out, affecting 45 residents. The state of emergency is expected to remain in place until next week.
"A top priority is to clear arterial routes and to reach isolated communities." An aerial inspection of the Maitai pipeline, which supplies water to the city of Nelson, revealed eight slips but they are not disrupting supply and are being monitored. There have been 230 slips in Nelson. An aerial inspection has revealed extensive damage to homes in Ligar Bay, Wainui Bay and Pohara Valley. Access will be restored to Tata Bay on Saturday but there is still no access from Tata Bay to Wainui Bay and beyond to Totaranui. About 90 residents and Department of Conservation staff are stranded in Totaranui but they have water and supplies and access to water taxis. Building inspectors are visiting homes and are putting red stickers on unsafe houses, as they did after the Christchurch earthquakes.

EXTREME HEAT & DROUGHT / WILDFIRES / CLIMATE CHANGE -

Melting Permafrost Could Release Greenhouse Gases - Long trapped inside permafrost, stores of methane and carbon dioxide, the leading greenhouse gases, have been held in thrall for millennia. As temperatures rise globally, the organic matter that is trapped in the frozen soil is at risk of thawing, decaying and releasing these gases. Although the frozen carbon isn’t a surprise, the volume of organic debris is. “A recent estimate suggests that the perennially frozen ground known as permafrost, which underlies nearly a quarter of the Northern Hemisphere, contains TWICE AS MUCH CARBON AS THE ENTIRE ATMOSPHERE."
Even if the permafrost has not thawed, at least some of the still-frozen carbon could be losing its stability. The fear is that accelerating the entry of carbon into the atmosphere could compound the warming process. And, although it would not happen overnight, it could be unstoppable once it began. In 2009 a Canadian scientist and his team estimated that there were about 1.7 trillion tons of carbon in those permafrost regions and that 88 percent of it was frozen. Researchers at the Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) studied the effect that a thawed-out Arctic would have on overall climate health and found that one- to two-thirds of that permafrost will be gone by 2200. Indigenous populations worldwide are of course already seeing the effects of climate change, be it the Inuit trying to live their daily lives, or island nations struggling with rising sea levels.
As the recent COP17 climate change talks in Durban can attest, agreement is hard to come by on the subject of carbon emissions, and Canada’s pullout from the Kyoto Protocols on greenhouse gas emissions targets, along with the U.S. Congress’s support of the Keystone XL pipeline, do not bode well for a reduction of dependence on fossil fuels. “If we want to hit a target carbon concentration, then we have to reduce fossil fuel emissions that much lower than previously calculated to account for this additional carbon from the permafrost. Otherwise we will end up with a warmer Earth than we want.”

SPACE WEATHER -

COMET LOVEJOY SURVIVES - Incredibly, sungrazing Comet Lovejoy survived its close encounter with the sun Friday. Lovejoy flew only 140,000 km over the stellar surface during the early hours of Dec. 16th. Experts expected the icy sundiver to be destroyed. Instead, NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory caught the comet emerging from perihelion (closest approach) apparently intact. Comet Lovejoy began the week as a chunk of dusty, rocky ice more than 200 meters in diameter. No one can say how much of the comet's core remains intact or how long it will hang together after the searing heat of perihelion. "There is still a possibility that Comet Lovejoy will start to fragment. It’s been through a tremendously traumatic event; structurally, it could be extremely weak." The scorched core of sungrazing Comet Lovejoy is still intact as it recedes from the sun. Even the comet's flamboyant tail, temporarily lost in transit through the solar corona, has regrown.

Thursday, December 15, 2011

2011-12-14T23:49:00.002-06:00

No update on Friday, December 16 - due to holiday obligations.

Adapting to Climate Change the Right Way - Faced with more frequent natural disasters caused largely by climate change, global and local decision-makers need to have greater foresight in their efforts to prevent and recover from future crises. Tropical Storm Irene brought that need home brutally to Vermont, where authorities reacted earnestly but in ways which may worsen damage from future severe weather events. The storm caused little harm in urban areas of the mid-Atlantic and Northeast, so few expected the once-in-a-century flooding in rural upstate New York and Vermont that caused 56 deaths an estimated $10 billion to $15 billion in damage.
Although the damage was surprising, the causes behind it were not. For decades, scientists have warned that human-caused greenhouse gas emissions and the climate change they induce would result in weather extremes that grow more numerous and more intense. Climate change adaptation - adjustments in natural or human systems in response to the impacts of climate change - has thus become an international priority. Such investments in adaptation make sense. Adaptation is necessary if communities and countries are to survive drastic changes in climate once environmental tipping points - such as acidification of ocean, alteration of the Gulf Stream, or thawing permafrost - are crossed.
In many developing countries, climate change adaptation efforts are being integrated into strategies to reduce poverty. The Asian Development Bank has estimated, for instance, that every $1 invested in adaptation now could yield as much as $40 in economic benefits by 2030. Global efforts are therefore underway to adapt in the face of droughts, rising sea levels, storms, and floods. The city of Perth in Western Australia, for example, is building a desalination plant to offset losses in water from declining precipitation. Planners in the Netherlands are constructing dikes, dams, and floating houses to cope with increased flooding and rises in sea level. Londoners are investing in a Thames River barrier system to better respond to floods.
Yet some of these interventions can have unintended, and dangerous, consequences. In Vermont, after Tropical Storm Irene, local and state officials allowed an unusual amount of dredging by heavy equipment in stream and riverbeds to collect gravel to help quickly repair roads. These actions, however, reduced the ability for ecosystems to lessen future flood surges, thus making those roads even more susceptible to storms and undermining the repair work itself. Vermont is not alone in pursuing adaptation methods with unexpected consequences. In the Maldives, nicknamed the "flattest country on earth," poor coastal protection measures such as dredging to create sandbars and erecting seawalls have unintentionally reduced the flow of nutrients to coral reefs, weakening a natural shield against storm swells and surges. Coastal communities there have also removed vegetation to expand settlements and resorts and have mined sand for use in construction. These activities have increased the exposure of the Maldives to rising sea levels and floods. In Uganda, national leaders have planted thousands of hectares of fast-growing eucalyptus and pine trees to "sink" large amounts of carbon and create a buffer against strong winds. Such efforts, however, have inadvertently eroded the vitality of native forest ecosystems and displaced hundreds of communities from their livelihoods and land, lowering overall social resilience.
These examples - and dozens more like them - illustrate that sometimes the best intentioned adaptation efforts can increase environmental, economic, or social vulnerability. Part of the explanation may be the ad hoc and frenetic way local, state, and national officials sometimes respond to disasters. Following Tropical Storm Irene, some Vermont state policymakers were so overwhelmed that one local senator publicly announced that "the state became lawless for several weeks." He argued that Vermont's emergency policy amounted to a de facto "Do what you have to do and we'll sort it out later." Economic incentives, some very understandable, can also play a role in the rush to action. The Ugandan tree planters mentioned above will receive millions of dollars for the carbon credits generated from their project. Vermont businesses, especially those involved in tourism, were anxious to see rapid road, bridge and other repairs completed before the fall foliage and winter ski seasons.
Good intentions, however, aren't enough. Climate change adaption efforts must meet the needs of the localities they intend to serve. The fact that such interventions are often done hastily should make us all the more diligent that they do not accelerate, rather than reduce, risk. Decisions made today on adaptation will greatly determine how vulnerable we are to future climate-induced events. Tropical Storm Irene was a powerful lesson that today's weather-related disaster can become tomorrow's humanitarian crisis. The challenge now is to ensure that crisis recovery efforts rebuild for long-term resilience. After all, poorly designed and implemented investments in adaptation are worse than none at all.

**Unity is strength... when there is teamwork and collaboration,
wonderful things can be achieved.**
Mattie Stepanek

LARGEST QUAKES -
This morning -
None 5.0 or higher.

Yesterday -
12/14/11 -
7.1 EASTERN NEW GUINEA REG., P.N.G.
5.0 EASTERN HONSHU, JAPAN
5.8 TONGA

VOLCANOES -

Kolumbos submarine volcano (Santorini, Greece) - 3.2 magnitude earthquake. At 19h22 GMT (21h22 local time), a 3.2 earthquake occurred at the little-known submarine volcano Kolumbos ca. 8 km NE of Santorini, Island, Greece. This marks one of the largest events in recent months. The submarine volcano whose peak rises to just 18 m below sea level, is located on the tectonically active SW-NE fault system across Santorini which confines most volcanic vents of the Santorini volcanic complex in the past 500,000 years.
Kolumbus volcano last erupted in September 1650 following a year of frequent earthquakes. The eruption produced a large explosive pumice eruption, with ash fall recorded as far as Turkey, and built a temporary island. The main phase of the eruption triggered a devastating tsunami. Toxic gasses killed more than 25 people and hundreds of livestock on Santorini by suffocation. There is no reason to state that new activity from Santorini or Kolumbus is likely in a foreseeable future but on the other hand, there are very few data available, unfortunately, to judge the situation. We regret that the Greek monitoring institutes are not publishing more details about the ongoing activity. Access to important earthquake details such as as their depth, are not published (they are available for earthquakes in all the other regions in Greece, raising some suspect why not for Santorini.)

Is Hawaii's "gentle giant" volcano, Kilauea, a killer in waiting? - A new assessment of Kilauea's activity suggests that this "quietly erupting" volcano, on Hawaii's Big Island, may simply be in a lull between violent eruptions. "In fact, the volcano has erupted explosively about as often as Mount St. Helens," the report says, without specifying how often Mount St. Helens erupts. Carbon dating of the old eruptions is cited as an indication that "the volcano was explosive for 60 percent of the past 2,500 years. It just happens to be in one of its more peaceful, lava-flow stages at the moment." So peaceful, it seems, that Hawaiian authorities feel confident enough to allow the volcano's thousands of visitors each year to walk up close to the rivers of lava oozing down the volcano’s slopes, and often into the sea. There’s even a visitor center at the summit.
A geologist with the Hawaiian Volcano Observatory has referred to Kilauea as a high-risk area. “Though the explosions may be smaller, there are a lot more people in the area, so the risk is very high. So we have to be very concerned." An eruption in 1790 that killed several hundred people makes Kilauea the deadliest volcano active in the United States today. When Mount St. Helens, in Washington State, erupted May 18, 1980, 57 people died and nearly 150 square miles of forest was blown over or left dead and standing."
For Kilauea, "the most dangerous part of the explosions is something that is probably least known to people, and that is fact that they can produce clouds that are a mixture of hot ash and gases that can move horizontally across the ground surface at very rapid speeds — hurricane velocity.” They are certain that this kind of surge will happen again, though it may likely be "preceded by a dramatic sinking of the crater at the volcano’s summit, which would unfold over the course of several days - providing time to evacuate. Only there could be no going back to the area for centuries.

TROPICAL STORMS -
In the Western Pacific -
Tropical Storm 27 was located approximately 100 nm east of Palau. As it moves closer to the Philippines, an improving upper level environment will allow it to intensify to weak typhoon strength.

Tropical storm Twentyseven is forecast to strike the Philippines as a typhoon at about 18:00 GMT on 16 December. The Provincial Disaster Management Division warned residents, especially those living along the river banks and waterways, to prepare for incoming Tropical Storm 'Sendong', which, unless it changes course, is expected to hit Negros Friday. 'Sendong' is gathering stronger winds in the next 24 hours and threatens not only Eastern Visayas but the entire Visayas region if it will not slow down or change direction. They are closely monitoring the movement of the tropical storm to issue a warning as soon as possible. Even if Sendong changes its course and hit Bicol Region instead, Negros will still be affected because of its wide diameter.

SPACE WEATHER -

Supermassive Milky Way black hole will 'eat' gas cloud - Simulations suggest that the cloud will be ripped to bits and partially swallowed by the black hole. Researchers have spotted a giant gas cloud spiralling into the supermassive black hole at our galaxy's centre. Though it is known that black holes draw in everything nearby, it will be the first chance to see one consume such a cloud. As it is torn apart, the turbulent area around the black hole will become unusually bright, giving astronomers a chance to learn more about it. The cloud should meet its end in 2013.
Researchers estimate that despite its size, the cloud has a total mass of only about three times that of Earth. They have plotted the cloud's squashed, oval-shaped path and estimate it has doubled its speed in the last seven years - to 2,350km per second. It should spiral in to within about 40 billion kilometres of the black hole in the middle of 2013. Reviews of existing pictures from the VLT show the cloud speeding up in recent years Our local supermassive black hole, dubbed Sagittarius A*, lies about 27,000 light-years away, and has a mass about four million times that of our Sun. As the name implies, beyond a certain threshold point - the event horizon - nothing can escape its pull, not even light itself. But outside that regime is a swirling mass of material, not unlike water circling a drain. In astronomical terms, is a relatively quiet zone about which little is known.
That looks set to change, though, as the gas cloud approaches.
It does not comprise enough matter to hold itself together under its own gravity, as a star might, so the cloud will begin to elongate as it meets its doom. "The idea of an astronaut close to a black hole being stretched out to resemble spaghetti is familiar from science fiction. But we can now see this happening for real to the newly discovered cloud. It is not going to survive the experience." It is likely that about half of the cloud will be swallowed up, with the remainder flung back out into space. But this violent process will literally shed light on the closest example we have of an enigmatic celestial object. The acceleration of the cloud's constituent material will create a shower of X-rays that will help astronomers learn more about our local black hole. (illustration)

STRANGE ANIMAL BEHAVIOR -

Thousands of birds make US crash landing - Thousands of migratory birds died on impact after apparently mistaking a Wal-Mart car park and other areas of southern Utah for bodies of water and plummeting to the ground in what one wildlife expert has called the worst downing she's ever seen. Crews went to work cleaning up the dead birds and rescuing the survivors after the creatures crash-landed in the St George area on Tuesday. By Wednesday, volunteers had rescued more than 2000 birds, releasing them into nearby bodies of water. "They're just everywhere. It's been non-stop. All our employees are driving around picking them up, and we've got so many people coming to our office and dropping them off."
Officials say stormy conditions probably confused the flock of grebes, a duck-like aquatic bird likely making its way to Mexico for the winter. The birds tried to land in a Cedar City Wal-Mart car park and elsewhere. "The storm clouds over the top of the city lights made it look like a nice, flat body of water. All the conditions were right. So the birds landed to rest but ended up slamming into the pavement." No human injuries or property damage have been reported.
Most downings are localised "but this was very widespread. I've been here 15 years and this was the worst downing I've seen." Officials said they were continuing the rescue effort. The surviving grebes were released into bodies of water in southern Utah's Washington County, including a pond near Hurricane. "If we can put them on a body of water that's not frozen over, they'll have a better chance of survival."

Wednesday, December 14, 2011

2011-12-14T01:17:00.002-06:00

US sees MOST SEVERE PRECIPITATION EXTREMES ON RECORD - is it linked to “superjets”? Through November, 2011 has experienced THE MOST EXTENSIVE COVERAGE OF SEVERE DROUGHT AND ABNORMALLY WET CONDITIONS ON RECORD. This follows news that a record number of billion dollar weather disasters have occurred this year in the U.S.. NOAA’s Climate Extreme Index reveals that (for the period covering January through November) 56% of the U.S. is experiencing either severe drought or extremely wet conditions, way above the historical average of 22%. 1934, due almost exclusively to pervasive drought, is the only year which even comes close to 2011 in terms of the area affected by precipitation extremes. More than 50% of the country was afflicted by drought conditions in that Dust Bowl year.
2011 is somewhat unique in the historical record in that it ranks in the top 10 for both drought AND heavy precipitation coverage. In many of the other extreme years, it was either usually wet or unusually dry, not both.
The prevailing La Nina pattern has supported the presence of a powerful jet stream slicing through the middle of the country, bringing bout after bout of stormy weather. But to the south and southwest of that jet stream, the moisture abruptly shut off leading to historic drought. Global warming may have something to do with the contrasts in this pattern. Added heat to the atmosphere juices up the wet extremes by making more water vapor available, while speeding up evaporation and drying in drought areas.
And in a new twist, researchers have identified the development of “superjets” in the Pacific ocean that may have fueled some of this year’s severe weather and heavy rains. These superjets form in the western Pacific when the subtropical jet stream lifts north and combines with polar jet stream. These superjets can bring powerful storms to the Nation’s mid-section and Southeast 7-10 days after they form. “If the subtropical jet stream is rearranged and superposed on top of the polar jet stream, it might be the mechanism that allows for this very long delay, a disturbance that can have discernible effect on severe weather thousands of miles downstream, and a week or more later." UNUSUALLY strong jet stream winds were linked to some of the spring’s historic, deadly tornado outbreaks. An analysis of the frequency of these superjets has not been published, so it’s not clear if they were more common in 2011 or if there’s a global warming link. “Historic weather data should tell us whether there has been a change in the frequency of these overlapping events, and whether that might be linked to a change in high impact-weather events." (graphs)

**As we advance in life it becomes more and more difficult,
but in fighting the difficulties
the inmost strength of the heart is developed.**
Vincent Van Gogh

LARGEST QUAKES -
This morning -
7.1 EASTERN NEW GUINEA REG., P.N.G.
5.0 EASTERN HONSHU, JAPAN
5.1 TONGA

Yesterday -
12/13/11 -
6.1 MINAHASA, SULAWESI, INDONESIA
5.2 NORTH OF HALMAHERA, INDONESIA
5.0 KYUSHU, JAPAN
5.0 OFF EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
5.1 NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC RIDGE
5.4 SOUTH OF PANAMA

A violent 7.1-magnitude earthquake struck Papua New Guinea today, shaking buildings and swaying powerlines, but no immediate tsunami warning was issued.
The quake, initially rated at 7.3, struck at 3:04 pm (0504 GMT) at a depth of 121 kilometres (75 miles) southwest of the coastal city of Lae and 221 kilometres from the capital Port Moresby. Witnesses in Port Moresby said people came running out of buildings and parked cars rocked. "It was pretty strong, everybody felt it. I was siting in my car when it hit and it was rocking, rocking, rocking." Geoscience Australia said it was not expected to create a tsunami. "It's not tsunamigenic. That's the assessment on the basis that it's about 20 kilometres inshore and also it's about 120 kilometres deep and that's too deep really to cause any tsunami problems."
But the quake could cause other problems for the nearest largest town, Wau, about 20 kilometres from the epicentre, and Lae. "It's in a mountainous area so there may be issues of landslides and things like that, that's what's the main problem in that particular part of Papua New Guinea." Papua New Guinea is regularly hit by earthquakes due to its proximity to the so-called "Pacific Ring of Fire".

Small earthquakes shake up central Maine - Four minor earthquakes jostled the earth under central Maine on Sunday. One quake, which measured 1.0 on the Richter scale, occurred at 4:42 p.m.; the second happened at 11:46 p.m. and measured 1.4. The quakes were detected near the small towns of Millinocket, Lincoln, and Howland. Two other weaker quakes of less than 1.0-magnitude were also recorded in the area. “If you were standing right over the epicenter, you might hear a low rumbling noise."
There is debate among scientists about what causes earthquakes of this size in the region, but it may be a result of movement in the Mid-Atlantic ridge, the area where two tectonic plates meet in the middle of the ocean. The earthquakes are “way too small to cause any sort of damage." The earthquakes were located in an extensive forest area in the Central Penobscot region.

TSUNAMI / FREAK WAVES / ABNORMAL TIDES -

IRELAND - The HIGHEST WAVE EVER RECORDED IN IRISH WATERS hit off the Donegal coast, measuring 20.4 metres in height. As it turned out, the most northerly tip of the country, Malin Head, experienced winds gusting at 140km/h (87mph). The result was a historic wave off the Donegal cast that came from a force ten storm. The wave itself was measured from a special buoy and was sent from 60 miles from the Irish coast. Amazingly, the buoy's recording, which was positioned 16km west of Rossan Point, trumped the previous wave record which was set just three hours earlier at 11am. “There was a record wave of 20.2 metres earlier but it didn’t last very long. The previous record was something like 16 metres so it’s a significant jump in magnitude.”
"The combination of tides, forecasted gale warnings for the next day or so, high sea conditions and swollen rivers may result in very dangerous conditions. I would ask each and every road user to use the roads safely over the coming week. With bad weather forecast, we need to be prepared for these severe weather conditions of stormy winds, patches of ice and snow showers." Although conditions are expected to ease up in the coming days, there is a possibility that a second storm, currently raging over the Atlantic, may hit the south and midlands of Ireland.

TROPICAL STORMS -
In the Western Pacific -
-Tropical depression 26w was located approximately 270 nm southeast of Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam. Final warning notice was issued.

-Tropical depression 27w was located approximately 365 nm east-southeast of Palau.

Australia weather bureau says above average cyclone risk through December - Australia's weather bureau warned on Tuesday that the country faced an above average risk of tropical cyclones through December due to weather conditions in the Indian Ocean. "The current MJO (Madden-Julian Oscillation) event spawned the first tropical cyclone for the Australian cyclone season, Severe Tropical Cyclone Alenga, which formed in the Indian Ocean last week," the bureau said in a regular climate note. "The risk of tropical cyclone formation in the Australian region is likely to remain above average for most of December, with increased rainfall across northern Australia during this period."

Tropical depression hitting central Vietnam - For the past few days, the tropical depression moving in the East Sea has been causing high tides and destroying many houses in central Vietnam. The depression, which was about 220 km from Truong Sa (Spratly) islands, was moving at 10 km with winds of 63-75 kph and can be upgraded into a storm. In the past few days, the depression has caused bad weather to many central provinces, including Binh Dinh, Quang Ngai and Phu Yen. The sea of Binh Dinh Province has been violently rough while its coastal areas have been suffering a northwest wind of 45-62 kph with gusts of 75 kph. Vessels of more than 447 fishing households in Nhon Chau Island Commune have failed to land on or leave Qui Nhon City for the last four days, causing a standstill of fishing activities in the area.
In Quang Ngai Province, violent sea waves have destroyed at least 48 houses in coastal areas and high tides have caused serious landslides in An Cuong Hamlet in Binh Son District. 17 families have been evacuated to safe places and 170 others might be evacuated in days to come. In Phu Yen Province, high tides have been threatening residents in Tuy Hoa City’s An Phu Commune and Tuy An District’s An Ninh Dong Commune for the past few days. Especially, sea waves of 2 to 3 m have submerged An Phu Commune’s Ro Hamlet yesterday. Authorities evacuated more than 40 families to safe places but a number of houses were destroyed. About 270 soldiers have also been mobilized to help locals set up embankments with bags of sand to prevent high tides.
In a separate development, northern Vietnam will suffer another cold snap as of December 15. The temperature will drop to 11 to 14 Celsius degree in daytime and 15 to 18 Celsius degree at night. In high mountainous areas like Mau Son, Sap, Sin Ho and O Quy Ho Pass, the temperature will plunge to 3-5 Celsius degree or lower.

HEAVY SNOW / EXTREME COLD -

ALASKA - Anchorage blown away by extreme weather. On the edge of what other city in North America can you get knocked flat by hurricane-force winds in a blizzard roaring up the suburban neighborhood street you've boldly started down in an effort to find out what caused the power outage? And where else in the country would they knock on the door of a neighbor to tell him the high-voltage lines carrying power across the valley have been torn completely off the pole next to his house, leading him to look at you and ask, "You'll do anything for a cheap thrill, won't you?'' And then laugh as another gust hit, and his house shook, and the adjacent power line whipped around like it was going to crack? But then they've been through this a few times before. Only a week earlier, the hurricane-force winds that rolled across the Anchorage Hillside tore a separate insulator loose from the same power pole and left the line bouncing and swaying in the wind. It was a different line from the one that tore an insulator out of the cross bar this time. That line then hit another, caused a whole lot of sparks, and kicked out a breaker.
Everyone in Anchorage should own a Coleman lantern or some equivalent, as this is a city vulnerable to power outages either by wind or earthquake. The semi-official report from the National Weather Service, recorded at a home in the neighborhood, was 97 mph. T)he interim director of Alaska Climate Science Center wondered if the big blows might be linked to the warming off the ocean. Storms generate significantly more energy over warm water than cold. .The warm water in the North Pacific was thought to be a significant player in what some called the "Arctic hurricane'' that ripped into the Bering Sea and Western Alaska last month. The storm pounded the coast with winds up to 90 mph and left widespread damage. The Governor later declared the region a disaster area. This year has produced more than its share of blasts (odd for a La Nina winter). The latest storm is still too fresh for anyone to get a full damage assessment. It began to die on Sunday night, sometime after the power came back on around supper time.

Snow and strong winds disrupt travel in Scotland - Snow and high winds have disrupted road and rail travel across Scotland. Gusts of up to 70mph swept across the central belt and forecasters warned of heavy snow on high ground. In the Highlands, seven vehicles were involved in a collision which closed the A9 at Dalwhinnie for almost seven hours. Rail services were severely disrupted, with one passenger being injured after a train travelling from Wick struck a fallen tree at Inverness. The Met Office upgraded its weather alert from yellow to amber for heavy snow across some parts of the country. Amber warnings cover Central, Tayside, Fife, Strathclyde, the south-west of Scotland, Lothian and Borders, Highlands and Western Isles. The Grampian area is on yellow, while southern and western Scotland could also experience very strong winds at times. The A83 at Rest And Be Thankful was closed for emergency repairs because of the severe weather and remained closed overnight. In the Shawlands area on the south side of Glasgow, the A77 Kilmarnock Road was closed in both directions because of an unsafe building. The fire service were dealing with a satellite dish which was hanging from a tenement.

HEALTH THREATS -

A mysterious epidemic is sweeping Central America - it's the second biggest cause of death among men in El Salvador, and in Nicaragua it's a bigger killer of men than HIV and diabetes combined. It's unexplained but the latest theory is that the victims are literally working themselves to death. In the western lowlands of Nicaragua, in a region of vast sugar cane fields, sits the tiny community of La Isla. A pale man, his cheekbones protrude from his face, hunches over like an old man - but he is only 19 years old. "The way this sickness is - you see me now, but in a month I could be gone. It can take you down all of a sudden." His kidneys are failing. They do not perform the essential function of filtering waste from his body - he's being poisoned from the inside. When he got ill two years ago, he was already familiar with this disease and how it might end. "I thought about my father and grandfather." Both died of the same condition. Three of his brothers have it too. All of them worked in the sugar cane fields.
Kidney disease has killed so many men here that locals now call their community not simply La Isla - which means "The Island" - but La Isla de las Viudas - "The Island of the Widows." The epidemic extends far beyond Nicaragua. It's prevalent along the Pacific coast of Central America - across six countries. "It is important that the chronic kidney disease (CKD) afflicting thousands of rural workers in Central America be recognised as what it is - a major epidemic with a tremendous population impact." El Salvador's health minister recently called on the international community for help. She said the epidemic is "wasting away our populations".
At a health clinic in El Salvador, in the farming region of Bajo Lempa, a doctor recently found that a quarter of the men in his area suffered from it.
Chronic kidney disease, or CKD, is permanent or long-lasting kidney damage. CKD is often without any symptoms in the early stages, so many people don't know they have it until the later stages, when symptoms include anaemia (with weakness/breathlessness), bone disease, nausea and vomiting. Final-stage CKD patients may die without dialysis or a kidney transplant. In the developed world, the primary causes of CKD are diabetes and high blood pressure, which are becoming more common as a result of increasing obesity, lack of exercise, and high salt intake. In the developing world, the main causes are chronic infections like HIV, viral hepatitis, malaria, and tuberculosis. What's more, most of the men who are ill show no signs of high blood pressure or diabetes - the most common causes of CKD elsewhere in the world. "Most of the men we studied have CKD from unknown causes." What the men in his area have in common is they all work in farming. So the doctor thinks a major cause of their kidney damage is the toxic chemicals - pesticides and herbicides - that are routinely used here in agriculture. "These chemicals are banned in the United States, Europe and Canada, and they're used here, without any protection, and in large amounts that are very concerning." But he's not ready to rule out other possible causes. For instance, the overuse of painkillers can damage the kidneys, and so can drinking too much alcohol. Both are major problems here.
In Nicaragua, the disease has become a political issue. In 2006, the World Bank gave a loan to Nicaragua's largest sugar company to build an ethanol plant. Plantation workers filed a complaint, saying the company's working conditions and use of chemicals were fuelling the epidemic. They said the loan violated the bank's own standards for worker safety and environmental practices. In response, the bank agreed to fund a study to try to identify the cause of the epidemic. "The evidence points us most strongly to a hypothesis that heat stress might be a cause of this disease." A team has found it's not just sugar cane workers who are falling ill. Miners and port workers also suffer high rates of kidney disease, yet they're not exposed to farm chemicals. What these men have in common, is they all work long hours in extreme heat. "Day after day of hard manual labour in hot conditions - without sufficient replacement of fluids - could lead to effects on the kidney that are not obvious at first but over time accumulate to the point that it enters into a diseased state. This has never been so far shown to cause chronic kidney disease, so we would be talking about a new mechanism that has not so far been described in the scientific literature." But a new preliminary study bolsters this hypothesis. His team tested blood and urine from sugar cane workers who perform different jobs. The scientists found more evidence of kidney damage in the workers who have more strenuous jobs outside. This explanation makes sense. It's been long suspected that part of the problem is the way sugar cane workers are paid - receiving more money the more sugar cane they cut. "This way of working forces people to do more than they are able to do, and this is not good for their health."
"Working in the field made us feel dizzy and nauseous. We often had fevers." A worker who now has kidney disease heads an organisation of sugar cane workers in Nicaragua who are ill. He's convinced that something on the sugar plantations is causing the sickness. Whatever it is, he says, those who are ill need treatment with dialysis - which can keep them alive when their kidneys fail. But few can get it because dialysis is extremely expensive and rarely available. For their part, the sugar cane companies say they're not convinced that farm chemicals or working conditions on their plantations are to blame for the epidemic.

Tuesday, December 13, 2011

2011-12-12T23:31:00.001-06:00

Big climate change could happen fast - and soon - New research from NASA into the Earth's paleoclimate history indicates we could be facing rapid climate change this century, including sea level
rises of many meters. And while international leaders have suggested a goal of limiting global warming to two degrees Celsius from pre-industrial times, even this would lead to drastic changes.
The Earth's average global surface temperature has already risen by 0.8 degrees Celsius since 1880, and is now increasing by more than 0.1 degree Celsius every decade. At the current rate of fossil fuel burning, the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere will have doubled from pre-industrial times by the middle of this century, causing an eventual warming of several degrees. By studying cores from both ice sheets and deep ocean sediments, they found that global mean temperatures during the Eemian period, which began about 130,000 years ago and lasted about 15,000 years, were less than one degree Celsius warmer than today. If temperatures were to rise two degrees Celsius over pre-industrial times, global mean temperature would far exceed that of the Eemian, when sea level was four to six meters higher than today. "The paleoclimate record reveals a more sensitive climate than thought, even as of a few years ago. Limiting human-caused warming to two degrees is not sufficient. It would be a prescription for disaster." Two degrees Celsius of warming would make Earth much warmer than during the Eemian - indeed, similar to Pliocene-like conditions, when sea level was about 25 meters higher than today.
However, sea level increase due to ice sheet loss would be expected to occur over centuries, and large uncertainties remain in predicting it accurately. "We don’t have a substantial cushion between today's climate and dangerous warming. Earth is poised to experience strong amplifying feedbacks in response to moderate additional global warming."

**Love many things, for therein lies the true strength,
and whosoever loves much performs much,
and can accomplish much,
and what is done in love is done well.**
Vincent Van Gogh

LARGEST QUAKES -
This morning -
5.2 HALMAHERA, INDONESIA
5.0 OFF EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN

Yesterday -
12/12/11-
5.1 SAKHALIN, RUSSIA

TROPICAL STORMS -
In the Western Pacific -
Tropical depression 26w was located approximately 325 nm east-southeast of Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam.

SEVERE RAIN STORMS, FLOODING, LANDSLIDES -

UK put on severe weather alert with forecast of TWO huge storms. Two huge storms are forecast to batter many parts of the UK this week with London and the south of England set to bear the brunt of the severe conditions from today. And Scotland looks likely to receive a second storm battering on Thursday and Friday as yet another massive destructive weather system heads in from the North Atlantic.
The UK Met Office extended its severe weather warning for the capital and areas of the south of England for Monday and Tuesday as the first huge Atlantic storm looked set to crash in on Monday evening. Forecasters are warning of strong winds and torrential rain that have the potential to cause flooding and travel disruption.
A second, much larger storm, is now forecast to affect the entire country from Thursday, bringing with it severe gales and worsening conditions. Current weather models predict winds well in excess of 80mph will sweep across the entire UK on Friday afternoon - winds are classified as hurricane-force from 74mph.
A yellow severe warning alert issued warned the entire west coast of the UK would be affected as the monster storm sweeps in from the Atlantic. The advisory, which is valid from 6pm on December 15, currently warns: “Rapidly strengthening winds and heavy rain are likely to arrive across the west later on Thursday, heralding another potentially stormy period. The public is advised to monitor warnings for this period, noting that the alert is likely to be extended into Friday in due course.”
Meteorologists say the current spate of extreme wet and windy conditions are as a result of FREAK CONDITIONS IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE over the North Atlantic Ocean. While the UK was in the icy grip of the Big Freeze this time last year, this year a shift in atmospheric conditions meant the country would be prone to more extreme weather and Atlantic storms. “In 2011, there was what was known as the 'Greenland Block' that virtually created a traffic jam in the atmosphere – the Arctic air that normally progresses from West to East was forced to plunged Southward and created the Big Freeze across much of the northern hemisphere, including the East Coast of the US and much of Europe. However this year, there is no 'Greenland Block' so these weather systems can freely pass from West to East unobstructed and gather destructive power on their way across the ocean. These storms are all part of the seasonal change and look very likely to continue.”

EXTREME HEAT & DROUGHT / WILDFIRES / CLIMATE CHANGE -

THAILAND - Drought threat increasing as reserves fall. Some provinces could be hit with drought next year due to dwindling water reserves. As the floods are receding, drought could emerge as a new problem hitting some areas next year especially in provinces which do not benefit from the Royal Irrigation Department's irrigation system. "The severe cold this year points to a drought crisis next year." Massive drainage of water during the flood period could also lead to drought.
Dams and reservoirs normally store 6-7 billion cubic metres of water largely for agricultural purposes during the dry season. But the floods this year forced officials to drain up to 2 billion cu/m of water from flooded areas.
The water reserve could potentially drop to 5 billion cu/m by year's end and 4 billion cu/m by the time the new rice season arrives. The country still lacks an adequate management system to retain water supply for all areas. "If people are concerned only about protecting their own assets from the flood, they will care less about the impacts of flood prevention schemes on the environment and on the general public." The floods also exposed flaws in wastewater and rubbish management at times of disaster. The management system was designed to handle waste in normal situations. In the post-disaster period, the amount of water pollution and garbage has increased.
The floods gave political parties an opportunity to pay more attention to environmental issues because the effect of the floods is still evident. The government could use this opportunity to take action against people encroaching on floodways. State agencies have stressed the need to tackle encroachment on natural drainage systems. They say floods are "man-made" to some extent, as natural drainage passages and water retention areas are obstructed by the construction of housing estates, roads and hotels.

U.S. -
The WORST SINGLE-YEAR DROUGHT IN TEXAS HISTORY is affecting the roads. Last weekend's rain was just a drop in the bucket for the parched soil in Central Texas. The city of Houston is now on pace to have only the third driest year on record, behind 1917 and 1988.
The dry spell has sucked all the moisture out of Central Texas’s topsoil. And that’s caused cracks to form and bumps to pop up. As soil alongside the pavement heats up, moisture evaporates, and the soil then begins to compress. That can bend the edges of roads, and cause the asphalt to break. This type of road damage happens all the time, but this year it’s significantly worse. “Especially where there’s clay soil, the highways can contract and compact as it dries out. And that means cracks may appear in the pavement, or a section of the base under a road, may fall away, may slump a bit.” TxDOT generally waits to do repairs until the weather is cooler and the cracks have reached their maximum size. The recent rains could even help by allowing the soil underneath roads to re-expand. But some of the road damage is already affecting drivers and needs to be fixed more urgently. Timing for repairs is tricky, because water expands when it freezes, and that can cause the asphalt to break even further. “We realize that we are in the middle of what could be a long-term drought that doesn’t show any signs of abating. The recent rain that we’ve had has not relieved it. And our engineers are always looking for solutions to this.” Neither TxDOT nor the city has been able to estimate the costs of drought-related road damage so far.
ONE OF THE WORST PERIODS OF PROLONGED DROUGHT IN OKLAHOMA STATE HISTORY is easing after nearly a year. The state experienced its hottest summer yet, and 69 percent of the state still was in exceptional drought.
In October, the USDA designated 101 Missouri counties as natural disaster areas due to drought. This showed a recognition of crop losses caused by lack of rain and excessive heat during July and August. Dried-out subsoil at depths of 3 feet or more could trouble next year's crops in Missouri.

Monday, December 12, 2011

2011-12-12T03:58:00.001-06:00

Japan's massive earthquake shook satellites out of their orbits - The Tōhoku earthquake that rattled Japan on 11 March changed Earth's gravitational field enough to affect the orbits of satellites. The satellites' altered courses suggest that the earthquake was stronger and deeper than instruments on Earth indicated. These weren't just any satellites: they are the twin spacecraft of the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE), which fly 220 kilometres apart in a polar orbit about 500 kilometres above Earth. GRACE's job is to map the Earth's gravity field, and it does this by monitoring the effect of minute variations in the field on the trajectories of the satellites and the changing distance between them. Earth's gravity field changes whenever there is a redistribution of mass on its surface. This may be a result of snowfall, flood, melting of ice caps – or earthquakes. "That perturbed gravitational field affects the satellite orbits."
Researchers have already studied the effects of two previous megaquakes – the Sumatra-Andaman earthquake in 2004 and last year's earthquake in Chile. After GRACE was launched in 2002, these were the only earthquakes that had had a measurable effect on the satellites' orbits – until the Tōhoku earthquake.
The most recent megaquake shows that the disturbances of satellite orbits can be used to independently estimate the magnitude and location of earthquakes, along with estimates based on surface seismographs and GPS measurements. The researchers calculated how the relative velocity of the two satellites changed as they passed over the affected region. GRACE records variations in the gravity field due to other processes too, but these background signals change over larger timescales than that of the quake, and so could be identified and subtracted. The leftover signal showed that the rate at which the distance between the two GRACE satellites changed – the so-called range rate – was twice as high in the month after the earthquake as in the month prior to the event.
The researchers then built models of the earthquake using data from seismographs and surface GPS instruments, and estimated what the satellites' range rate would be in these models. They found that a model in which the earthquake was of magnitude 9.1 and occurred in Earth's lower crust came closest to the true range rate. By contrast, conventional estimates have put the Tōhoku earthquake's strength at 9.0 and located it in the upper crust. NASA and DLR, the German space agency, which are joint partners in GRACE, are planning a new mission to measure with greater precision how Earth's gravity field changes. This would allow the satellites to monitor earthquakes with magnitudes as low as 7.5, which occur nearly every month somewhere on Earth.

**I love the man that can smile in trouble,
that can gather strength from distress,
and grow brave by reflection.**
Thomas Paine

LARGEST QUAKES -
This morning -
5.0 SAKHALIN, RUSSIA

Yesterday -
12/11/11 -
6.3 SOUTH SANDWICH ISLANDS REGION
6.7 GUERRERO, MEXICO
5.5 SOUTH OF FIJI ISLANDS
6.7 GUERRERO, MEXICO
5.8 RYUKYU ISLANDS, JAPAN

The strong quake in Mexico killed at least three - The US Geological Service initially estimated the quake at magnitude at 6.8, but downgraded it to 6.7 and then 6.5. A quake of that magnitude is capable of causing severe damage, although the depth of this temblor lessened its impact.

MYSTERY SHAKING -

NEW JERSEY - 12/9/11 - Dozens in New Jersey report feeling earthquake, but US Geological Survey detected none. Floors shook, bottles rattled, bells jingled, and scores of New Jersey residents up and down the state cried "earthquake!" Friday morning. Was this the state’s second rattler in four months? Despite more than 60 residents who claimed to have felt shaking, a spokesman for the U.S. Geological Survey said none of the seismometers stationed around the state picked up even a hint of trembling. "It’s not an earthquake. My guess would be it’s more likely thunder or sonic boom."
New Jersey has been rocked this year by half a dozen extreme weather and geological events, including a 5.8 magnitude earthquake centered in Virginia that shook buildings across the Garden State in August. This time, the first-hand reports began streaming in around 10 a.m. from Egg Harbor, Cranbury, East Brunswick, North Brunswick, Trenton, Somerset, Edison, Plainfield, Piscataway, Iselin, South Plainfield and others. People felt their homes sway and heard glass bottles clinking for between 10 and 30 seconds. A band of thunderstorms off the state’s coastline or covert activities at Fort Dix or McGuire Air Force Base in southern Jersey might be possible explanations for what residents might have felt. But a spokesman for the National Weather Service said its unlikely that even severe thunderstorms could make the ground feel as through it’s shaking. Fighter jets used in drills near Virginia and North Carolina have caused sonic booms — the noise and vibration associated with traveling faster than the speed of sound — which can be mistaken for earthquakes. A spokesman for Fort Dix did not return calls for comment.

TSUNAMI / FREAK WAVES / ABNORMAL TIDES -

Japan quake-tsunami recast undersea terrain - Undersea views reveal that Japan's colossal earthquake ripped deep fissures in the seafloor and raised undersea cliffs hundreds of feet, while spawning waves that destroyed billion-dollar seawalls. In a series of reports on the March 11 earthquake, among the strongest ever recorded at magnitude 9.0, researchers at the American Geophysical Union meeting described a shattered world on the Japanese seafloor that birthed a killer tsunami responsible for the deaths of at least 20,000 people. "They were doomed to start with." A $1.6 billion undersea breakwall outside the town of Kamaishi, for example, "didn't protect the town", taking perhaps 6 feet off of a 40-foot tsunami wave. Funneled by narrow sea canyons, waves as high as 130 feet hit some towns, powered by the seafloor's abrupt piston-like bucking during the quake.
"In some places, we cannot see to the bottom of the fissures." Before-and-after robot submarine visits to three sites about 70 miles off Japan's coasts confirm that the seafloor shifted more than 70 feet eastward and dropped more than 30 feet in some locales, along the fault between the Pacific Ocean and the Japanese crustal plate. Fissures stretch the length of football fields and a cliff several hundred feet tall looks freshly exposed at one spot, more than 2 miles deep. "It was a peaceful seafloor, but after the earthquake everything moved." The seafloor study, and satellite images reported Monday, help further explain the tsunami's severity.
• Parts of the seafloor on the eastern side of the fault dropped, while the far side popped upward and westward, delivering a double-barreled tsunami.
• The NASA Jason-1 oceanographic satellite revealed waves merging offshore to heights far exceeding expectations, channeled by undersea ridges. "We call them fingers of God."
• Preventive measures such as planting stands of pine trees on coasts proved useless for stemming waves. Japanese researchers reported that they now realize that a tremendous tsunami that struck Japan in 869 A.D. should have served as a warning to the island nation.
The earthquake struck with such force, the fourth-largest one ever measured in the world by seismologists, that it dealt Japan two waves of shaking: one originating at the fault itself and one emanating from a displaced reflection of the quaking, which shook the seafloor closer to the coast. "It was like an orchestra, with the tubas playing on one side," and the flutes playing on the other. The quake lasted for three minutes, "an enormous amount of time for an earthquake", precisely because of the undersea orchestration of the quake shaking the seafloor. "The more we understand the physics of earthquakes and tsunamis, the better we can warn people the next time. That is why we study this."

TROPICAL STORMS -
No current tropical storms.

SPACE WEATHER -

December 10 lunar eclipse - Lunar eclipses offer a unique way to assess the global dustiness of Earth's stratosphere. The scattering action of dust casts a red light into Earth's shadow. Lots of dust yields a deep red eclipse, while less dust produces a bright coppery hue. The bright copper color of Saturday's eclipse suggests that the stratosphere is relatively clear. "It appears the clear stratospheric conditions of recent years is continuing." This is important because the stratosphere affects climate; a clear stratosphere "lets the sunshine in" to warm the Earth below. At a 2008 conference it was reported that, "the lunar eclipse record indicates a clear stratosphere over the past decade, and that this has contributed about 0.2 degrees to recent warming." ( Eclipse gallery)

Sunday, December 11, 2011

2011-12-11T02:19:00.001-06:00

Mexico earthquake kills two in Guerrero state - A 6.7-magnitude earthquake has struck Mexico, shaking buildings and sending people rushing out on to the street. The quake, which struck the western state of Guerrero at 19:47 local time (01:47 GMT), was strongly felt in Mexico City and the Pacific resort of Acapulco. At least two people have died in the state, but reports suggest the country has escaped major damage. Many districts in the capital suffered power outages. One person was killed after a roof collapsed in the small city of Iguala, while a second died after a rock fell on a small van on the Mexico City-Acapulco highway. The tremor - which was 40 miles (65km) deep - was also felt in other states including Michoacan, Puebla and Hidalgo. "I was dreadfully afraid, I thought it was never going to end," said a woman who was in a bar in Mexico City when the quake struck. In 1985, an 8.1-magnitude quake killed as many as 10,000 people in the city.

**The strength of a nation derives from the integrity of the home.**
Confucius

LARGEST QUAKES -
This morning -
5.6 SOUTH OF FIJI ISLANDS
6.7 GUERRERO, MEXICO
5.8 RYUKYU ISLANDS, JAPAN

Yesterday -
12/10/11 -
5.0 EASTERN NEW GUINEA REG., P.N.G.
5.1 PHILIPPINE ISLANDS REGION
5.0 ANDREANOF ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN IS.

12/9/11 -
5.1 MOLUCCA SEA 2011-12-09 21:02
5.7 SEA OF OKHOTSK

US forecast of impending mega quake worries Kashmiris - It is like the doomsday prophecy for the Kashmir Valley. Intense debate Saturday followed an American seismologist's predictions of a magnitude-9 earthquake. Local newspapers carried front page stories about the prediction that a major earthquake in Kashmir that could trigger landslides which would dam the Jhelum river and plunge the valley under water. The prediction also said that once released, the waters would cause major floods in Pakistan. "The two nations should develop a cooperative plan to deal with the aftermath of a Kashmir mega quake," the study has advised. New global positioning system (GPS) data readings reveal the gradual movement of rocks in the Zanskar mountains north of the valley, but the earlier estimates of the maximum possible quake in the region were low.
In its typical doomsday forecast, the study warns: "The zone would rupture when a quake eventually happens. The quake would be 200 kilometres wide as against 80 kilometres predicted earlier. The zone would encompass the Kashmir Valley, including the Srinagar city with its 1.5 million strong population. If slippage occurs over a length of 300 kilometres, as is possible, a mega quake of magnitude-9 is likely to occur. Given building codes and population in the region, it could mean a death toll of 300,000 people."
"Earlier we believed that the Kashmir Valley was vulnerable to destruction from quakes generated along the Pir Panchal mountain range. But with availability of the GPS data from the region, it is now evident that the northeastern side of the valley is more vulnerable to earthquake generation than the Pir Panchal range." The average Kashmiri, unable to understand the scientific data, is highly perturbed by the reports. "That would be the end of the world for us if what the US seismologist has said would actually happen." "We can only wait for our destiny to happen as it is ordained. Kashmir has always been devastated by earthquakes in the past."
Whether or not the doomsday forecast comes true, the US seismologist's study has become a topic of hot discussion in Kashmir. Over 40,000 people were killed across the Line of Control (LOC) in Kashmir and Pakistan-administered parts of Kashmir in an earthquake measuring 7.9 on the Richter Scale in 2005.
Major quake may put held Kashmir under water in three months. Take a hotspot of potential conflict and add a magnitude 9 earthquake. It sounds like a nightmare scenario, but it could play out in the occupied Kashmir. Worse still, such a major quake is likely to trigger landslides that could dam the Jhelum River, which drains from the Indian occupied Kashmir valley into Pakistan. That could put the valley under water within three months - and would also threaten disastrous flooding in Pakistan if the waters were released too quickly. The new estimate of the largest quake possible in Kashmir comes from eight years of readings from GPS sensors placed in areas under both Indian and Pakistani control. The work was made possible only thanks to collaboration with both nations, which are in a tense military stand-off over the contested territory. In this region, the Indian plate is slowly burrowing under the Tibetan plateau. The researcher was looking for where the relative movement of the Tibetan plateau was slowest, as this indicates where compression is building up, and a rupture is eventually likely to occur. He had expected this to be in the Pir Panjal Range, to the south of the Kashmir Valley, but instead it was in the Zanskar Range to the north. What he cannot predict from his GPS results is when such a disaster might happen. Seismologists have been caught out by recent mega quakes, including the magnitude 9 Tohoku quake that hit Japan in March, by basing their estimates on historical patterns, rather than physical measurements. "I think you have to plan for the worst case," he says.

Why the Haiti earthquake may not have been a natural disaster - Deforestation and extreme weather may later cause earthquakes, scientists believe. Their findings suggest that cutting down trees on steep slopes may increase the risk of not only landslides but earthquakes in heavily deforested places such as Haiti, which suffered a devastating magnitude 7 quake in 2010. Geologists have previously discounted the idea that low atmospheric pressure associated with tropical cyclones can influence the timing of earthquakes. But the new study suggests a different mechanism based on changes to the weight of soil and other ground material bearing down on a geological fault under seismic stress.
"Very wet rain events are the trigger. The heavy rain induces thousands of landslides and severe erosion, which removes ground material from the Earth's surface, releasing the stress and encouraging movement along faults. The 2010 earthquake in Haiti occurred... 18 months after the same area was hit by two tropical storms and two hurricanes. It can happen in other mountainous areas affected by cyclones, such as Japan, the Philippines, and maybe Central America."
The idea the weather can play a role in triggering earthquakes is controversial. But an analysis of the timing of earthquakes and cyclones in Taiwan over the past 60 years has demonstrated a statistical correlation, with a significant number of quakes bigger than 6 occurring within four years of major cyclones. Rapid soil erosion on steep slopes caused by tropical cyclones changed the stress on the geological fault over a period of months or years, which can trigger an earthquake. "Statistical analysis showed that the timing of the earthquake is above the expected. It is way above background. If it was a random process and there was no relation between earthquakes and cyclones... there was less than 1 per cent probability of this occurring. It is not that it happens during a cyclone but that there is a delay, and the delay of between three months and three years is due to the ground erosion. The delays can be due to the time it takes for the erosion to wash the material to the ocean." An independent analysis of ground movements caused by summer monsoons in the Himalayas also suggested a link between extreme weather and earthquakes. A study in California found that earthquakes were more likely to occur in dry winter months after the monsoon period.

MYSTERY BOOMS / SKYQUAKES -

NORTH CAROLINA - 12/8/11 - Bright lights, baffling booms leave Brunswick County residents puzzled. Hearing mysterious loud booms, or Seneca guns, is nothing new in the area, but they normally aren't accompanied by lights in the sky. Lots of perplexed folks posted on WECT's Facebook page about both the booms and lights Thursday night. "It kind of sounded like a jet breaking the sound barrier," a resident said. He stepped outside to see if he could tell what it was, and saw something strange overhead: two bright lights that flashed off and on. He's seen flares before -- and he's sure that's not what he saw this time. "There was no tracers…no glow around them and each time they appeared, they were the same distance apart in the sky."
Just 20 miles from his house in Shallotte, another man saw the lights in Boiling Spring Lakes. "The lights, I've never seen them before. They started at like…somebody was lighting some type of special firework that was silent, and it just got bigger real quick and it faded out…" He figures the lights could be manmade…but then again, perhaps not. "It was probably something out of this world, or military. Who knows what it could have been. It was definitely something that you hardly ever see." As quickly as the mysterious lights appeared in the sky, they were gone. "I come running outside again, of course, and scouted out the sky for six or seven minutes. Then, I didn't see any more lights at that time." For now, the lights over Brunswick County remain a mystery -- and are sure to leave room for debate. None of the nearby military officials WECT spoke to claim responsibility for the loud booms or the lights in the sky. (video)
SOUTH CAROLINA - 12/8/11 - Mystery boom felt, heard on the North Strand. Several people living in the Little River and surrounding areas reported multiple rumbles and booms late Thursday night. Some thought it was an explosion and others thought it might be an earthquake. WMBF News took the story and dug into it and didn't find an answer. None of the authorities are claiming knowledge of the booms and there's no reports of earthquake seismic activity from the U.S. Geological Survey. A small magnitude 2.2 earthquake hit North Charleston early Wednesday.

VOLCANOES -

JAPAN - Mt. Sakurajima breaks record with 897th explosive eruption. Mt. Sakurajima, an active volcano in Kagoshima Prefecture, explosively erupted late Thursday for the 897th time this year, BREAKING ITS ANNUAL RECORD FOR THE THIRD CONSECUTIVE YEAR. The volcano has had a record number of explosive eruptions each year since 2009, when it erupted 548 times, beating the previous record of 474 set in 1985. In 2010, there were 896 eruptions. Observation of the volcano began in 1955. The latest eruption was observed at the 800-meter-high Showa crater. It has been a frequent site of activity since 2008, after erupting in June 2006 for the first time in 58 years. The volcano could become extremely active in January or February, as eruptions since 2009 have tended to increase before New Year, and a NEW MONTHLY RECORD of 141 explosions was marked in September.

Rise of underground water temperature causes Myanmar mud volcano eruptions - An earthquake in Rakhine State has caused underground water temperatures to rise, setting off volcano eruptions of mud and small amounts of lava. Volcanos in the Kyaukphyu Township area on Ramree Island were set off along a fault line. More volcano mud eruptions might occur, but there is no danger or need for mass evacuations. “When there is earth crust movement in these fault lines, there will be underground water circulation and more water will move up to the surface as hot springs, but they are not like real volcanoes. They do not pose a danger to people." The highest number of underground hot spring fault lines is in Kyaukphyu Township. The hot spring fault line runs through Magwe Region.
A mud volcano erupted on November 26 on a small hill one mile west of Bawyabaya village, about 32 miles from Kyaukphyu. The eruption sent magma and lava 15-feet into the air, and about 5 acres of nearby land was covered by magma. By evening, the eruptions had subsided. Past eruptions in the area occurred in 1990 and 2000. On November 21, an earthquake occurred with an epicenter 32 kilometres northeast of Homlin in Sagaing Region measuring 5.9 on the Richter scale. It probably triggered the mud eruptions. “The underground hot water in the fault line was pushed up to the surface and the eruptions took place."
Two mud volcanoes in Sai Chong village east of Kyaukphyu erupted in January 2008. Lava and magma shot up to 300-feet high and a small amount of lava covered about 200 feet in the nearby area, the New Light of Myanmar reported on January 8. A similar volcano mud eruption took place near Sai Chong village in 2006, and an eruption in 1996 damaged more than 40 acres of farmland in the same area.

Volcanoes: Disturbing forecast for 2012 - The underwater volcano situated to the south off El Hierro island (the Canary Islands) has been bothering the local residents with its activity since September 2011. The volcano has entered the third phase of its eruption. Scientists registered a giant whirlpool above the crater of the underwater volcano. The diameter of the whirlpool was 50 meters, and the water inside was warmer than on the outside. Many people living in the southern part of the island have to leave their homes because of the unbearable smell of sulphur. The content of CO2 in the air has tripled, which means that the volcano is not going to calm down. The center of the eruption has been getting closer to the surface, which means that a new island will soon appear near El Hierro. Will the volcano continue its eruption when it comes out of the water?
In Iceland in November, scientists registered over 500 quakes in the area of Katla's caldera. All the quakes were weak, but they mean that the magma in the cavity underneath Katla has started moving. There is a glacier on the slope of the volcano - Myrdalsjokull. If Katla erupts, the glacier will melt and trigger a catastrophic flood on the entire south-eastern coast of the island.
It is worthy of note that there is a geological connection between Katla and the volcano near El Hierro. They both belong to the system of the Mid-Atlantic Ridge. The whole of Iceland is a part of this ridge too - it just rose above the water surface. Therefore, the whole Atlantic may wake up after the "ring of fire" in the Pacific.

TROPICAL STORMS -
No current tropical storms.

HEAVY SNOW / EXTREME COLD -

AUSTRALIA - Queensland's RECORD-BREAKING COLD START TO SUMMER has eased and "almost normal" summer conditions were expected on Saturday. The cold snap - following hard on the heels of Brisbane's driest and warmest spring in two years - saw records broken from the city south to the Gold Coast and Stanthorpe and west to St George. Much of the state was warming up after almost a week of surprisingly cold conditions, with Brisbane and Amberley hitting 25C, Coolangatta 24C and Toowoomba 20C on Thursday. Coolangatta made 19.7C at 9am, beating the previous low maximum set in 1965 of 20.4C. Brisbane had an equal low maximum of 19.9C, the same as 1963.

EXTREME HEAT & DROUGHT / WILDFIRES / CLIMATE CHANGE -

Greeland rose as ice melted - A 2010 spike in the melting of ice cover in Greenland caused a large part of the island's bedrock to lift almost an inch, a US researcher says. A network of 50 GPS stations measured the uplift as the ice loss was accelerated in southern Greenland by 100 billion tons. A rise of 0.79 inches was recorded over just a five-month period. The findings have implications for climate change.
"Pulses of extra melting and uplift imply that we'll experience pulses of extra sea level rise. The process is not really a steady process." The researcher is sure the 2010 uplift was due to the extreme ice loss detected that year. "Really, there is no other explanation. The uplift anomaly correlates with maps of the 2010 melting day anomaly. In locations where there were many extra days of melting in 2010, the uplift anomaly is highest."

TAIWAN - The abnormality of the recent weather in northern Taiwan peaked as the highest temperature during the day reached over 30 degrees Celsius in northern Taipei on Wednesday. The RECORD-BREAKING TEMPERATURE appeared at the Banqiao weather station — NEVER BEFORE had the station seen 31.2 degrees Celsius in December.

HEALTH THREATS -

Alarm after Dutch lab mutates killer virus - World health ministers say they are being vigilant after a Dutch laboratory developed a mutant version of the deadly bird flu virus that is for the first time contagious among humans. The H5N1 strain of bird flu is fatal in 60% of human cases but only 350 people have so far died from the disease largely because it cannot, yet, be transmitted between humans.
The Dutch announcement led to fears the mutant virus could find its way into nature or that the publication of the research on how the virus was mutated could be used by terrorists. The EU Health Commissioner says he had received assurances from Dutch authorities that the virus was secure. "The Dutch authorities confirmed that the virus itself is stored in a very secured way and that the necessary permits were given and that the researchers are bound by a code of conduct. One of the issues ... is to ensure that any information coming from this research is well controlled and without sensitive details about mutation being given." The Dutch team had discovered that transmission of the virus was possible between humans "and can be carried out more easily than we thought. In a laboratory, it was possible to change the H5N1 into a virus ... that can easily be spread through the air. This process (mutation) could also happen naturally."

Friday, December 9, 2011

2011-12-09T02:03:00.002-06:00

Extreme weather records broken across the United States in 2011 - Though the year isn't yet over, 2011 proved to be rough when it came to extreme weather climate change is to blame. RECORDS FOR EXTREME HEAT AND EXTREME COLD WERE BROKEN IN ALL 50 U.S. STATES. The extremes at time have been disastrous, costing Americans an estimated overall $53 billion. In a conference Thursday, the Natural Resources Defense Council, an international nonprofit environmental organization, planned to release a map showing exactly how areas have been hit, including state-by-state analyses on weather extremes, record breakers, rainfall and snowfall.
What's causing the changes? Perhaps climate change, according to the NRDC. A Special Report on Extreme Events from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has already concluded that the effects of climate change will intensify extreme heat, heavy precipitation, and maximum wind speeds of tropical storms.

**What if a demon were to creep after you one night,
in your loneliest loneliness, and say, 'This life which you live
must be lived by you once again and innumerable times more;
and every pain and joy and thought and sigh
must come again to you, all in the same sequence.
The eternal hourglass will again and again
be turned and you with it, dust of the dust!'
Would you throw yourself down and gnash your teeth
and curse that demon? Or would you answer,
'Never have I heard anything more divine'?**
Friedrich Nietzsche

LARGEST QUAKES -
This morning -
None 5.0 or higher.

Yesterday -
12/8/11 -
5.0 BONIN ISLANDS, JAPAN REGION
5.2 SOUTH SANDWICH ISLANDS REGION

12/7/11 -
5.9 KEPULAUAN SULA, INDONESIA
5.0 NEAR EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
6.1 ATACAMA, CHILE
5.4 TONGA

VOLCANOES -

INDONESIA - Thousands Flee From Spice Isle Eruption - A volcano eruption in eastern Indonesia has forced thousands of residents to flee the area to avoid choking smoke. Mount Gamalama on the island of Ternate has spewed smoke and ash for days, but increased activity has forced the hurried evacuation of islanders. Witnesses described how the peak of the volcano was shrouded with an ash cloud as lava flowed down the side. Earlier, thousands of residents in Ternate, the provincial capital, flocked to a ship heading north to Bitung, North Sulawesi. Indonesian officials said more than 1,200 people from villages on the slopes of mountain are now living in shelters.
"There were no reports of casualties or injuries but people did panic for a while, screaming as they ran out of their homes." The city has been blanketed by smoke since Monday and the eruption sent an ash cloud more than 6,000ft into the air. Heavy rain has turned ash into a slurry, washing debris into inhabited areas. The volcano first erupted late on Sunday. Local authorities said Baabullah domestic airport in the city remains closed. Ternate was one of the former Spice Islands, and villagers grow cloves on Mount Gamalama's foothills. It last erupted in 2003. A 5.8-magnitude earthquake also struck off Indonesia's eastern Maluku islands on Wednesday.
INDONESIA - Spike in Illness Seen In the Ashy Wake of Gamalama Eruption. Residents in Ternate, North Maluku, are beginning to suffer from upper respiratory tract infections as a result of the ongoing eruption of Mount Gamalama. “Three of my children have been suffering from ISPA [upper respiratory tract infections] since yesterday. The doctor says it’s because they’ve breathed in too much volcanic ash from Mount Gamalama."
Gamalama, which forms the entire island of Ternate, the provincial capital, began spewing silica ash 1,700 meters into the air above the city on Sunday night. Since the eruption began, raining ash onto the city, residents had tried to secure masks to protect their children. However, the supplies available from public health authorities are very limited. Officials confirmed the shortage earlier this week, and said they had prioritized residents in the worst-affected areas in distributing their initial stock of 3,000 masks. On Wednesday, however, relief was reportedly on the way from the closest major city, Manado, the capital of North Sulawesi, in the form of 50,000 more masks. The city planned to stock up with 150,000 masks to anticipate the possibility of a lengthy eruption.
Officials have been forced to bring in supplies by ship since the volcanic ash, an aviation hazard, forced the island’s airport to close. Ternate’s port saw crushes of travelers crowding around the ticket windows, most of them having just received refunds from airlines. In addition to respiratory ailments, residents were complaining of eye irritation, itchiness and diarrhea. The threat of diarrhea results from volcanic ash contaminating water supplies in area outside the main business district, where piped water is not available and supplies are collected by hand from natural springs. “We have instructed the state water company to distribute fresh water to residents on the slopes of Mount Gamalama … because springs have been polluted with ash."

Fears of Mount Paekdu eruption spreading in North Korea - North Korea's adoption of a new rule on natural disasters last month indicates that experts' warnings of volcanic eruptions of Mount Paekdu have spread widely throughout the country. Pyongyang's new law stipulates principles for observing and forecasting natural disasters, particularly earthquakes and volcanic eruptions, in addition to how to minimize damage and undertake rescue activities, the Korean Central News Agency reported last month, without giving further details.
Experts outside the secretive communist country have warned since last year that North Korea's Mount Paekdu, which borders China, may still have an active core, citing topographical signs and satellite images.
Mount Paekdu, the highest peak on the Korean Peninsula, last erupted in 1903. Pyongyang likely intended to calm jitters among the public over widespread speculations over an eruption by devising systematic measures, and to draw international support for its disaster-prevention efforts. North Korea is presumed to have merged different regulations on disaster prevention while adding rules on volcanoes and earthquakes that have been missing so far." Experts from the two Koreas held talks on potential volcanic activity at Mount Paekdu in March and April. North Korea proposed the rare meeting soon after a massive earthquake and tsunami devastated Japan earlier this year. The two sides have held no further talks or actions since then.

Hawaii's Kilauea volcano poses explosive peril - Kilauea, the sleepy Hawaiian volcano famed for its quiet lava flows, could awaken into violent explosive eruptions at any time, geologists on the Big Island warn. Researchers at the Hawaiian Volcano Observatory - where 5000 mainland visitors a day come come to see the lava - have uncovered detailed evidence that during three long periods over the past 2,500 years, the summit of the shaking mountain has blasted out fiery rocks, steam and carbon dioxide again and again. It's bound to happen again, but the scientists say they can't predict when.
"Our research shows that Kilauea is a dangerous explosive volcano for long periods of time, alternating with periods dominated by gentle lava flows." Continuous and often spectacularly scenic lava flows, interrupted only occasionally by modest explosive eruptions, have marked the volcano's activity for the past 200 years, but the 300 years before that saw one explosive eruption after another. Kilauea's worst eruption in history killed uncounted numbers of Hawaiian people in November 1790.
According to sketchy accounts in local folklore, and a missionary's description from 1843, the volcano's summit exploded as a local chief named Keôua led three groups of warriors and their families across the summit on their way to battle King Kamehameha, Keôua's cousin, for supremacy over the island. One of the three groups was annihilated, there were casualties in another, and the third suffered only a few injuries. Remains of the bodies found afterward suggests that a dilute mixture of hot gas and volcanic ash moving at hurricane speed engulfed the victims.
The geologic record shows that Kilauea's activity has been marked by a period dominated by frequent lava flows from about 2,500 to 2,200 years ago, followed by a long period of explosive eruptions that continued for about the next 1,200 years; then another 500 years of lava flows, followed by about 300 years of eruptions, and then by more lava flows that continue today. The lava flows are building up the volcano's summit now and each period of violent eruptions creates and deepens the volcano's circular crater, called the caldera. When even a small eruption is about to occur, the bottom of the caldera sinks slightly. So its level is recorded daily as a possible sign that an eruption is due. "The good news is that we are currently in a period of frequent lava flows, and the hazard of explosive eruptions is small. The bad news is that we don't know when the next period of deep caldera and explosive eruptions will start. We know too little to estimate recurrence intervals."

TROPICAL STORMS -
In the Indian Ocean -
Category 3 Tropical cyclone 01s (Alenga) was located approximately 700 nm west of Learmonth, Australia.

Study links tropical cyclones to earthquakes - US researchers say they have found evidence that tropical cyclones in Haiti and Taiwan were followed by earthquakes, suggesting that heavy rains and landslides may unleash temblors. "Very wet rain events are the trigger. The heavy rain induces thousands of landslides and severe erosion, which removes ground material from the Earth's surface, releasing the stress load and encouraging movement along faults."
Researchers analysed data from major earthquakes - magnitude six and higher - in Taiwan and Haiti over the past 50 years and found that large quakes tended to follow within four years of a very wet tropical cyclone season. In some recent cases, quakes happened sooner, such as in 2009 when Typhoon Morakot in Taiwan was followed the same year by a magnitude 6.2 quake and another 6.4 quake in 2010. Morakot killed 614 people and left 75 missing, burying entire villages and dumping a record three metres of rain in what is considered one of the island's worst natural disasters. Typhoon Herb hit in 1996, killing hundreds in China and Taiwan, and was followed two years later by a 6.2 earthquake and then a 7.6 earthquake in 1999. After 1969's Typhoon Flossie was followed three years later by a magnitude 6.2 quake in 1972. The team also looked at the 2010 magnitude seven earthquake in Haiti and found it came a year and a half after two hurricanes and two tropical storms drenched the island nation within 25 days. The quake hit in January last year and levelled the capital Port-au-Prince, killing more than 225,000 people and leaving one in seven homeless. An ensuing cholera epidemic left more than 5000 people dead.
The researchers says their theory is that the heavy rains and landslide shift enough weight away from the surface load above the fault that a quake is triggered. "The reduced load unclamp the faults, which can promote an earthquake." The hypothesis only fits areas where there are fault lines on an incline, such as mountainous regions where the waters would push the land significantly far away from cracks deep in the Earth's bedrock. The researchers plan further study of weather conditions in the Philippines and Japan to see if the same links can be observed.

SEVERE RAIN STORMS, FLOODING, LANDSLIDES -

'Weather bomb' winds scour Scotland - Winds in the Scottish Highlands were clocked at 165 mph Thursday as an UNUSUAL STORM battered much of northern Britain. The worst effects were felt in Scotland. The winds brought trees down, stripped Aberdeen of its Christmas decorations and left 60,000 people without power. The Met Office issued its FIRST-EVER "red alert" Wednesday. Such warnings are HIGHLY UNUSUAL. Meteorologists said the wind was caused by an "explosive deepening," a sharp drop in atmospheric pressure within a span of 24 hours that is also known as a "weather bomb". Police advised everyone to get off the roads in central Scotland, but many drivers ignored the advice. Overturned trucks were scattered along highways and all travel was disrupted - with ferry services canceled, Edinburgh Airport closed and train speed limits reduced. About 75 percent of the schools in Scotland were closed.
The wind also caused problems in England, Wales and Northern Ireland. Wind speeds were measured as high as 81 mph in Wales and Northwest England. Ferries from Northern Ireland were canceled or delayed and cross-Channel services to France were disrupted.

Wednesday, December 7, 2011

2011-12-07T01:25:00.001-06:00

There will be no update Thursday, December 8 - due to early holiday festivities.

Startling new images from the depths of the Pacific Ocean reveal one of Earth's most violent processes: the destruction of massive underwater mountains. The pictures were created by sonar in waters up to 6km (4mi) deep. They expose how tectonic action is dragging giant volcanoes into a chasm in the seabed. The volcanoes are strung across several thousand kilometres of ocean floor and are moving westward on the Pacific tectonic plate at up to 6cm per year. The extraordinary scene was captured along the Tonga Trench during a research expedition last summer. The trench is a highly active fault line running north from New Zealand towards Tonga and Samoa.
Where the Pacific plate collides with the Indo-Australian plate, it is forced downwards into the trench, a subduction zone, and the volcanoes are carried with it. The trench, reaching a depth of 10.9km, forms the second deepest stretch of seabed anywhere in the world - easily large enough to hold Mount Everest.
One image shows the volcano nearest the edge of the abyss - the next to be destroyed - already starting to collapse. With frequent earthquakes, the region is vulnerable to tsunamis and one aim of the research is to understand whether the destruction of the volcanoes adds to the risk. One theory is that the volcanoes add friction to the movement of the two plates which leads to a greater build-up of tension and consequently to a more explosive quake. Another is that by shearing into blocks as they collapse, the volcanoes provide a kind of buffer easing the subduction process.
Earthquakes are less frequent at the precise point where the volcanoes enter the trench. "When you see the size of these features you'd think they'd cause massive earthquakes and disruption - and that was our starting hypothesis. But we found that the volcanoes were highly fractured before they entered the trench - which is very important for what happens after they enter the system." Analysis so far has not determined the precise impact of this process. "Are they added to the Australian plate or are they carried down in fragments into the deep earth mantle?"

**Try again. Fail again. Fail better.**
Samuel Beckett

LARGEST QUAKES -
This morning -
5.5 TONGA

Yesterday -
12/6/11 -
5.0 TONGA
5.0 TONGA

INDIA - Sikkim drastically de-stabilised by quake. A recent report by the State department of Mines and Geology has warned the Sikkim Government that the overall soil and rock stability of the entire State has been drastically destabilised by the 6.9 Richter scale earthquake that hit the State on September 18. This would trigger off multiple landslides in the coming monsoon season as already post-quake Sikkim has had more than 150 slides induced by the earthquake. 12 need urgent remedial action while another 32 need long term intervention.
The report has also warned of Glacial Lake Outburst Floods in the higher reaches and called for close monitoring of these lakes. The impact of the quake was more on the crystalline rocks, mainly on its quartzites and variants with adverse slopes and on landmasses adjoining steep slopes and waterways. It suggested that in the short term, soil compaction on fissures on landmasses to minimise seepage and use of local technologies to retain unstable boulders, apart from identification of high risk zones and preparedness for disaster mitigation and planning in advance. It also suggested use of remote sensing and GPS tracking aerial photographs to tackle disasters in remote areas. Banks and international agencies have been approached by the State Government for rebuilding efforts following the large-scale damages to infrastructure during the earthquake of September 18.

VOLCANOES -

TRINIDAD - Piparo volcano goes silent. Although the rumblings and gas spurts from the Piparo mud volcano are slowly subsiding, the Office of Disaster Preparedness is maintaining a safety alert. Over the past few days hundreds of people have been flocking to the area to look at the volcano which has been dormant for 14 years since a huge eruption on February 22, 1997. Following loud eruptions and heightened activity on Friday and Saturday, the volcano has become quiet. A resident said, “We are relieved because the last time it erupted, we had to run for our lives. We already packed a bag with all the important documents. If we feel the place shaking, we will grab the bag and run."
“The volcano is very silent and it is not talking to us at all. We are continuing to monitor it. We haven’t called off the alert. The experts have said we should watch it until the end of tomorrow to see if it settles down." It was seepage of surface water into the heated areas, not seismic activity, that triggered the gas spurts and rumblings.

TSUNAMI / FREAK WAVES / ABNORMAL TIDES -

Two Waves Formed Japan's Destructive Tsunami - The tsunami that devastated coastal areas of Japan in March was actually the result of two waves coming together to form a "merging tsunami". NASA and European radar satellites captured images of at least two wave fronts forming in the ocean after the 9.0 earthquake struck the region in March. They came together in a single wave that, because of its joined strength, was able to travel long distances without losing steam over ocean ridges and mountain chains that continuously pushed the waves together.
This observation was a rare glimpse of how tsunamis can cross miles of ocean to cause massive destruction in some places, while leaving others unharmed, researchers said. They hope to use the information to better predict tsunami activity and develop better forecasting and warning systems. "It was a one in 10 million chance that we were able to observe this double wave with satellites." Researchers had believed for years in the phenomenon of two waves forming to cause a tsunami of this kind, but it had never before been proven.
Current predictions for where a tsunami will hit are based on topography maps of the sea floor, which has ridges and mountains that push tsunamis in various directions. For this reason, its destruction once it hits land can appear random. However, by verifying the wave formation observed by the satellites through computer simulations and using other data, scientists may be able to create maps that take into account a vaster region of the seafloor to make better predictions in the future.

TROPICAL STORMS -
In the Indian Ocean -
-Tropical cyclone 01s (Alenga) was located approximately 535 nm west of the Cocos Islands.
-Tropical cyclone 02s was located approximately 760 nm east- northeast of La Reunion.

EXTREME HEAT & DROUGHT / WILDFIRES / CLIMATE CHANGE -

Glaciers in the French Alps have lost a quarter of their area in the past 40 years, according to new research. In the late 1960s/early 1970s, the ice fields slipping down Mont Blanc and the surrounding mountains of the European range covered some 375 sq km. By the late 2000s, this area had fallen to about 275 sq km. It mirrors some findings of retreat occurring in other sectors of the Alps which sit across the borders of several nations, but predominantly Switzerland, Austria, Slovenia, Germany, France, and Italy.
A great deal of effort is now going into monitoring the status of Alpine glaciers The only existing glacial inventory from the French Alps was published four decades ago within the context of the World Glacier Inventory. It found the overall area of ice to be about 375 sq km. By 1985-86, in spite of a short advancing period in the late 70s/early 80s, glacial coverage had decreased to a value close to 340 sq km, the new survey shows.
Since then, the withdrawal has accelerated. The retreat is not uniform across the French Alps, however. The greatest losses have been seen in the southern sectors. In the Belledonne Massif, for example, glaciers have almost completely disappeared; and in the Ecrins Massif, glacial retreat is more than three times stronger than in the Mont Blanc Massif. "The glacier retreat is less important in the northern Alps than in the southern Alps. We think this is because of the lower elevation of the mountains in the south, but also because of climatic conditions which are different. There is more precipitation in the north and there is also more cloud."
The northern region includes the biggest French glacier of all - La Mer de Glace, which falls over a 1,000m in altitude down Mont Blanc itself. Its area today is just over 30 sq km, a shade smaller than the 31.5 sq km in the late 1960s/early 1970s. Efforts to assess and monitor glacier health are going on across the Alpine region. Three years ago, Swiss researchers reported that glaciers on their part of the European range were also losing mass at an accelerating rate.